ETF Prophet

After trading in a daily range of 134.00 to 132.00 for the past 2 weeks, the EUR’s overnight session displayed a steady crumble to below S1 at the US market open.  These mid pivot situations are typically resolved in the direction of the LR14 and TRAK  . . a premise that was supported by the dramatic [...]

Just a quick note on the overnight session where the EUR came within 2 pips of 135.00, hitting R1 and then retracing 100 pips at the US open to hang tough at 134.00. The whole number support/resistance targets continue to play an important role for short term traders and now that the US session is [...]

In the face of widely expected weakness the EURO defied the odds and blew the doors off the overnight session, displaying an usually persistent uptrend. Currently above R5, an  immuplse level rarely seen at a US market open, the TRAK and the LR14 are still bullish, although the odds of further gains today are low.

Continuing with yesterday’s theme of relative pivot times, today’s action along the pivots illustrates why watching the EUR/USD 24 hour pivots provides a superior template for determining short term support and resistance levels in both the EUR and FXE. It may seem unlikely that the EUR/USD, which at times exhibits extreme squirrelly behavior and dramatic short term [...]

I always look forward to the latest issue of the free e-magazine Currency Trader and this month includes an article by Daniel Fernandez on using daily pivots to trigger breakout signals.  Pivots have been one of my most useful indicators for years in the equities markets and this article presents a straight forward approach to capitalizing on [...]

This is just a continuation of yesterday’s chart into the close and the issue of interest here was the clean alignment of price with the TRAK channel 9:00 – 14:30.  The TRAK is one of my basic trading templates and, coupled with the dynamic LR14 (5 minute bars), effectively provides a road map of oncoming [...]

 The one thing I love about trading the EUR is that it’s so much more predictable that the equities markets.  Case in point . . . today’s overnight action where we saw a repeat of Wednesday’s perfect storm that produced a 100 pip drop down to 133.00, but in this case the EUR dropped to [...]

In response to several emails expressing frustration over the lack of recent Dipper and Little Dipper signals I can only reiterate the old mantra, “Follow the plan”.  If there are no confirmed signals then there should be no question about whether to trade – Just say “No”.  Keep in mind that my goal is not primarily to [...]

With the adoption of the new dbFX platform template this may be a good time to review the basic TRAK setup and to add a simple single line indicator of short term sentiment. The dbFX platform time format is GMT so for us West coast traders the TRAK setup begins at 9:00 (1 AM PST) [...]

A new look and a new platform for my EUR/USD trading.  CMS has been acquired and their technical platform is now defunct so for the time being I’ve settled on the dbFX (Deutsche Bank) platform, which represents both an improvement and a retreat from  CMS features.

Great expectations are brewing with POMO in effect every day this week. No brainer logic argues for the bulls to be odds on favorites and although some disappointing earnings reports, like CSCO, have put a penalty marker on the field, Bernanke’s victory at any cost strategy will most likely propel the markets higher this week.

I’ve mentioned EUR’s tendency to reverse on whole numbers and overnight we saw 136 provide a 2 hour squat bar consolidation before EUR jumped up in time to be captured by both the Dipper and Little Dipper. The Dipper had a 1o pip stop loss, but the Little Dipper made up that loss with an 80 pip return on [...]

We left yesterday’s post at 9:45 (yellow line) with the expectation for a surge up to the EUR TRAK upper channel band . . which was subsequently hit at 11:30.  Also note that yesterday’s TRAK held overnight and is still in effect this morning as price ping pongs between the old TRAK upper band and the [...]

We left off yesterday morning at the yellow vertical time line with a forecast for a short term bullish move.  This turned out to the the case as evidenced by the black arrow entry and exits although the gain was only a modest 14 pips. The current EUR Trak has price at the top of [...]