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You Are Browsing the January 2010 Archive:

Sentiment and Risk-Seeking/Avoidance Behavior

Posted by on January 13th, 2010

It seems as if a pattern is emerging that helps to synthesize a lot seemingly unrelated “anomalies” into one finely woven theory. I introduced ”The Optimism Hypothesis” in the previous article: http://cssanalytics.wordpress.com/2010/01/10/sector-seasonality-and-the-optimism-hypothesis-part-1/  as an explanation for why certain sectors and seasons may perform better than others. Here is one excellent academic article  brought to my attention by Abnormal Returns http://www.abnormalreturns.com/2010/01/tuesday-links-short-suffering/  ”Research [...]

Building an adaptive system pt II

Posted by on January 9th, 2010

I've fast forwarded to point 4 in my last post (slap wrists), but I wanted to jot down these thoughts and notes before my sieve like head loses them.  So here goes – My research isn't fully formed to create a full hypothesis yet, but here's my thoughts: There's little point in researching a system [...]

Simple market timing model

Posted by on December 18th, 2009

Mebane Faber has some good stuff on his blog and I like the logic behind his simple asset allocation & market timing model as explained here: Download SSRN-id962461 I also find the concept of Payout yield vs dividend yield as explained here: http://www.mebanefaber.com/2007/02/21/a-better-dog/ and here: http://www.faculty.idc.ac.il/kobi/repurchase.pdf