ETF Prophet

Dear Subscriber, Well, I'm certainly glad I didn't short that open!  However, in many ways today technically looks a lot like yesterday, except more short-term overbought albeit with the big-move alert off the board.  Why?  Price remains below key resistance and the board shows a similar outlook on higher ranked volatility.  Longer-term, it's certainly good [...]

Dear Subscriber, A third day of gains whipped the short-term trend higher again, but also strengthened the Mean Reversion bias within the intermediate down-trend.  While internals generally looked good, leadership could have been stronger, with Health Care leading the pack.  Perhaps tomorrow we can burn off some overbought bias going into Fed Wednesday, but I'll [...]

Dear Subscriber, Friday's small bounce back featuring more than its share of directional volatility left us with a moderate bearish signal on the board for Monday, plus an HV 'Big Move' Alert.  Sunday night futures are also down in spite of reported short-term solutions to the Greek situation — we'll see.  Perhaps some upcoming 'legitimate' [...]

Dear Subscriber, It was a wild day with fear palpable at the mid-day on another VIX rise into the mid-twenties this go — potentially not so good for market performance in the days ahead.  While sector performance was mixed and generally led by the safety sectors, it was good to see a "V" shaped comeback [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's Energy & Materials driven gap and run higher (interestingly, presumptively on retail news!) finished just shy of immediate key resistance at SPY $129.50 right at the falling ten-day moving average.  Internals were very strong today, reversing the short-term trend back higher; if we can follow-through I'll again be looking at just over [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's miniature move to the upside (DOW +1?!) was not without it's drama, as the market made a sharp reversal back off a VIX tag of 20.  After 42 days, we also have a  behavioral change from trending to reversion on the board.  With volatility on the rise, I'm hopeful that this will [...]

Dear Subscriber, Our ranked Historic Volatility hit 40 on Friday… so much for continuation on the Thursday move….  Nevertheless, we have a moderate bullish expectation on the board for Monday's trade, although I fully expect lower lows ahead.  With the 200-day moving average just below and some distance now above to prior SPX 1,300 support, [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's decent bounce took our 'big move' and official long swing signals off the board, leaving us with a mild bearish bias for tomorrow.  While the falling five-day moving average proved resistance in the final hour, my personal intuition based on a review of each sharp multi-day pullback followed by a higher low/high [...]

Dear Subscriber, Day six of the relatively fearless (VIX sub 20) retreat continued the slow Materials-led drip downward without any desired sign of a quick fear-based reversal (I thought we were close near the end of day).  This can be a concern in non-normal markets.  In fact, in June of 2010 we had a run [...]

Dear Subscriber, The mixed sector close equated to a small loss on the S&P500.  We still have a bullish swing signal on the board, but it moderated significantly for tomorrow.  Markets came back somewhat after the bell post-Bernanke's presentation.  We are now very oversold, but I continue to see the as yet rising 200-day EMA [...]

Dear Subscriber, In alignment with our daily weekend outlook, equities recorded their fourth day of declines as led by the Energy complex.  Last night's suggested support held on its first test, but broke on its second.  I'd put next support all the way down at the 200-day EMA (say $126.50)(so consider that risk as compared [...]

Dear Subscriber, Friday's significant jobs miss precipitated a further 1% Tech led pullback from recent highs.  While I'd expect markets are nearly setup for a bounce between here and SPY $129.50, our outlook for tomorrow is slightly negative going into the new week.  That said, as oversold as we are, I'll be watching intraday internals [...]

Dear Subscriber, In alignment with last night's trading bias, equities took their largest single-day hit since late summer, as led by the Financials and Industrials, each down over 3% on the day.  Was last Friday's rotation model shift to Aggregate Bonds (AGG) foreshadowing further correction?  Of course the bond complex was up on the day!  [...]

Dear Subscriber, This is a brief note simply wishing you all a terrific Memorial holiday as we remember those who have protected freedom.  The short-term trend looks to be reversed with a slight bullish bias on the board for Monday.  While one may expect this bias to continue through the first days of the new [...]

Dear Subscriber, After a lap-down open, the SPY proceeded to break its five-day and fifty-day moving averages to the upside today with perhaps a bit more holiday-effect upside room remaining.  However, SPY $134 remains important down-channel resistance to watch and all of yesterday's commentary continues to apply with neutral to slightly bearish outlook for tomorrow [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's promising gap close and run higher petered off by the closing bell.  While the day nevertheless ended up, I never like to see end-of-day sell offs:  they represent an unwillingness to hold overnight and are a change of character from recent months.  In addition, one of my business partners pointed out to [...]

Dear Subscriber, This unruly market, if I may anthropomorphize it so, was firmly rejected at the as yet rising fifty-day moving average.  While price fizzled into the close, it's worth noting that Energy and Materials did finish higher on multiple broker upgrades.  For tomorrow, with a neutral mean-reversion bias on the board, I'd have to [...]

Dear Subscriber, Multiple trends were broken by today's low volume gut punch rout led by the Energy, Technology and Industrial complexes.  While we had some inkling of the risks over the weekend, it was a rough open to be sure at a level that our Gap/Lap tab studies clearly suggested was not conducive to good [...]