ETF Prophet

After a 5 point pullback this morning, the bulls showed up in the last 20 minutes of the option expiration.  Old technology like MSFT, INTC, IBM and the banks help to hold us around unchanged on the S&P500.  We are still overbought with VIX and TLT getting stretched.  We could give back some of the option [...]

It was a wild day as the early sell was sold and the eager buyers step in.  We had a large pop in the final hour on the Europe bailout package news testing the Sunday night future high, but was later denied.  It’s a mixed bag after hours.  INTC and ISRG are up and AAPL [...]

The price action over the last ten days is impressive. We are climbing the wall of worry. The bulls have the ball and are trying to break out from the 2 month old resistance area. Monday next week had a historical positive bias. I am wondering if we reach a temporary short term top after INTC and [...]

After the gap up open, bulls continued to push higher all day on positive Europe bailout news and oversold conditions post the Labor Day holiday.  INTC also helped the semiconductor sector by reaffirming guidance.  Breadth was impressive but the volume continues to be low.  Given how oversold we were coming in and the recent support holding, [...]

The bounce put the major indices back into the middle of a trading range and the 133 low last week on the SPY as near term support.  Defensives got a bid while SLV and USO dance to the beat of the rising dollar.  Technology continues to be a bright spot as the SMH is very [...]

The red tide washed in this morning leaving few ETFs in the green.  SMH was the exception, continuing to show resilience and driven largely by the vagaries in INTC.  The VIX, which is always a study in head scratching, is down 3%+ as of this post but VIX options are showing a ho-hum response, probably a [...]

The failure to hold the Bin Laden gap up yesterday signaled a tired bull.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day slightly green and the S&P 500 had a minor loss.   Momentum names on the Investor’s Business Daily’s IBD 50 saw a sea of red.  Small caps underperformed badly and oil and commodities suffer [...]

The market chopped around early and managed to finish strong. After hours, IBM could not hold the initial pop, but INTC, VMW, WYNN and a slew of other companies are picking up the slack. In the past year, sideways movement on light volume was good for the bulls. We are looking at another potential gap [...]

A bounce in oil and poor reactions to Google and Bank of America earnings gave the market a good excuse to sell off, but buyers found reason to buy the oversold market.  That and option expiration were probably responsible for the market holding up all day despite the negative news flow.  The early responses to [...]

Its not often you find me quoting Cramer day after day, but he is talking about the extraordinary p/e on ARMH again tonight.  Please note on a consecutive re-pump, the stock tend to reverse early next day when the pros start to short the home gamers.  Or the escalating situation in Egypt tonight could cause [...]

Intel was halted and is releasing news that it is cutting 1st quarter guidance because of a chipset design error.   Even though it raised full year revenue later but mentioned 1st quarter margin would come under pressure.   I believe INTC would continue to see margin pressure as more cost efficient and lower priced chips from ARM Holdings continue to gain [...]

Fourth time’s the charm; the bulls just couldn’t pull it off after 3 failed attempts at new high and we closed down for the week. The dip-buyers made a very brief attempt in the first 30 minutes of trading on up grade of INTC and DIS, but once we rolled over and took out the [...]

With the start of the National Football League preseason, shorts fumbled at the goal line set by the bad INTC news. Suddenly it seemed, however, volume increased nicely on positive breadth, and major sectors turned green with Oil, Small-Caps and Regional Banks all leading…. This self-reflective post is about particular observations I found interesting last [...]

An anecdotal article inspired by fellow blogger Damian’s comment to yesterday’s article. Two large China shoe factories visited our company recently.  They both complained that labor and material costs have gone up about 10-20%, but that USA demand has remained soft and retailers continue to push for lower prices.  Already the factories in the higher [...]

Dear Subscriber, Big move came a day late and basic material played catch up from yesterday and led the action.  INTC’s numbers after hour were strong, and the company's outlook also impressive. The post INTC earnings reaction were often notorious for selling off  (even after solid reports), but thus far Intel has held its ground.   We don't have [...]

Dear Subscriber, Semiconductors led, but it was troubling that basic materials and mining rolled over.  The dash board is still showing a bearish bias and VIX:VXV ratio is dipping into bearish territory.  However the behavior bias had flipped over to trending.   In the short term we may be due a correction, but I am wondering if [...]

Dear Subscriber,Although Consumer Discretionaries and Technology led the majors higher, it was really a mixed market under the hood.  Now we have an after-the-bell pop on the INTC beat, but also have a very strong reversionary signal and big-move alert on the board.  I'll also add that new breadth was weakish today, all things considered.  [...]

Dear Subscriber, Another up day to whip our short-term trend signal around a bit.  Tomorrow is equity options expiration day, post-INTC blow out and going into a long weekend.  All in all, I have a neutral outlook for the day though.  Watch out for the JPM news in the morning and some potential OPEX volatility [...]