ETF Prophet

Here we are again, back at major resistance levels that marked multiyear highs in the S&P 500 last May and DOW 13k.  We had a small sell the news reaction to the Greece bailout news but the bears still failed to keep the bulls down. I would guess many are getting cautious after a seven [...]

Underlying support is strong, and mild dips were gobbled up. Dow 13,000 and the 2011 S&P highs are magnets to draw in prices for next week. On Tuesday morning, we’ll likely be reacting to a Greece resolution or more meetings.  Some sort of deal will give the market short-term bounce, but may invite some profit [...]

After a quick test of yesterday’s low the buyers took over on a reported ECB involvement in the Greece bond swap deal to be completed this weekend.  We also have a good AMAT report after hour to help the technology sector.  The bulls are back in charge.  A intraday retrace of about 10points tomorrow or [...]

After the market went straight up for the entire month of January, we had four straight days of drip lower action to end January.  New month money came in today.  The past pattern probably calls for a consolidation or small upside day tomorrow. Friday’s outcome would depend on the reaction to the jobs number.  Greece [...]

We had the anticipated news that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi would resign.  After a brief retreat and the bulls launched  another Europe-is-saved rally. The action has become a bit V-ish again as we recouped almost all of last week’s losses and are now challenging the highs hit the last time Greece was bailed out.  [...]

We got our two way action early today.  All it took this time was for Greece to cancel its referendum on accepting a bailout and we closed on the high.   We rallied 50+ S&P points from the overnigth low.  We have the monthly jobs report in the morning, which will help to set the tone.  Expectations are low, [...]

With an (overdue) ECB rate cut, good earnings, and Greece coming into line, price is testing the magenta falling five-day moving average on positive internals.

After two days of hard selling that took the market back to the breakout levels, we were in good shape  for a bounce today.  More Greece drama and an unsurprising Fed FOMC rate announcement was all it took to provide decent upside.  QCOM delivered on its earnings but futures are down about 10 points, we [...]

While the late day run up yesterday shook out some bears, they came roaring back today and stopped the bulls 5 points away from closing this morning’s S&P gap.  Double-dip recession talks made head line news again.  This is the four time S&P 500 will be testing key support at 1120 to 1125.  We also [...]

After a big drop at the open, the market jumped again on news that Greece was close to reaching a deal.  I am not sure what has happened to all the other deals that were reached in the past, but we continue to rally on rumors.  Big cap technology charged ahead, with small cap lagging [...]

The day started oversold but with a slew of bad news from Europe.  A late story that China was interested in buying Italian bonds brought in buyers and saved our recent up channel and support zone.  Perhaps too many traders were looking for a test of the low?  Have the market priced in a “98% [...]

President Obama’s jobs speech produce a brief bounce right after the speech, but chaos in Europe grabbed the headlines.  Rumors that Greece may be defaulting soon and key personnel change in the ECB were the major worries. Since Greece has supposedly been saved at least a half dozen times already, will the G7 meeting save [...]

As expected, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s did not offer up QE3.  Initially, traders were concerned but new hope developed that something is likely to be announced after a two-day meeting in September. While it was a clear victory for the bulls today, the volume remained subdued.  We are now in a clear trading range between 1120 and [...]

As Greece edge closer to selective default and banks in U.K. and Italy comes under closer scrutiny, the confidence shown by the bulls after President Obama’s gloomy debt speech yesterday vanished.  The internal divergences finally caught up to the market and the slowing economy caught traders by surprise.   The action today was truly ugly [...]

After nearly closing the gap on the Greece bailout fade, the bulls took us out close to the high.  News that credit card companies received a positive ruling on debit-card fees today helped the market bounce back from afternoon weakness. We are quickly running into strong overhead resistance at 131.20 on SPY but the tendency [...]

The bulls did an excellent job of keeping the market running straight up today after the buyers showed some signs yesterday.  We had a couple of very minor dips but it was mostly steady buying throughout the day.  How much of today’s strength is due to traders playing the positive seasonality period and end-of-the-month window [...]

Price is above it’s 21-day moving average for the first time in nearly three weeks on this Trend Day Follow Through. Facts on the timing of the Greece austerity vote have been inconsistent, but it looks like it’s tomorrow unless its another one of these midnight votes. I’ll post here as soon as we have [...]

We started off slowly this morning but gained steam before a weak finish. Strength in financials, oil, commodities, and big cap momentum stocks was the main driving force.  It feels like a combination of a short squeeze and end-of-the-quarter window-dressing on average volume.  We still have oversold technical conditions on longer time frames, some nearby [...]