ETF Prophet

Dear Subscriber, Friday's small bounce back featuring more than its share of directional volatility left us with a moderate bearish signal on the board for Monday, plus an HV 'Big Move' Alert.  Sunday night futures are also down in spite of reported short-term solutions to the Greek situation — we'll see.  Perhaps some upcoming 'legitimate' [...]

Dear Subscriber, It was a wild day with fear palpable at the mid-day on another VIX rise into the mid-twenties this go — potentially not so good for market performance in the days ahead.  While sector performance was mixed and generally led by the safety sectors, it was good to see a "V" shaped comeback [...]

Dear Subscriber, Talk about the mother of whipsaws, but what could we expect from rising ranked Historic Volatility approaching 50 on deteriorating news flow?  In alignment with last night's letter, a cautious stance was the right way to approach the day with Energy, Materials and Financials all dropping more than 2%.  However, with the VIX [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's Energy & Materials driven gap and run higher (interestingly, presumptively on retail news!) finished just shy of immediate key resistance at SPY $129.50 right at the falling ten-day moving average.  Internals were very strong today, reversing the short-term trend back higher; if we can follow-through I'll again be looking at just over [...]

Dear Subscriber, Our ranked Historic Volatility hit 40 on Friday… so much for continuation on the Thursday move….  Nevertheless, we have a moderate bullish expectation on the board for Monday's trade, although I fully expect lower lows ahead.  With the 200-day moving average just below and some distance now above to prior SPX 1,300 support, [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's decent bounce took our 'big move' and official long swing signals off the board, leaving us with a mild bearish bias for tomorrow.  While the falling five-day moving average proved resistance in the final hour, my personal intuition based on a review of each sharp multi-day pullback followed by a higher low/high [...]

Dear Subscriber, In alignment with our daily weekend outlook, equities recorded their fourth day of declines as led by the Energy complex.  Last night's suggested support held on its first test, but broke on its second.  I'd put next support all the way down at the 200-day EMA (say $126.50)(so consider that risk as compared [...]

Dear Subscriber, In alignment with last night's trading bias, equities took their largest single-day hit since late summer, as led by the Financials and Industrials, each down over 3% on the day.  Was last Friday's rotation model shift to Aggregate Bonds (AGG) foreshadowing further correction?  Of course the bond complex was up on the day!  [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today was the first day to establish true overbought status, breaking the prior down channel on volume led by the Technology sector.  The first couple days of a new month are typically largely positive, but for tomorrow we have a neutral to mildly bearish signal based on early OB conditions.  It may be [...]

Dear Subscriber, This is a brief note simply wishing you all a terrific Memorial holiday as we remember those who have protected freedom.  The short-term trend looks to be reversed with a slight bullish bias on the board for Monday.  While one may expect this bias to continue through the first days of the new [...]

Dear Subscriber, This unruly market, if I may anthropomorphize it so, was firmly rejected at the as yet rising fifty-day moving average.  While price fizzled into the close, it's worth noting that Energy and Materials did finish higher on multiple broker upgrades.  For tomorrow, with a neutral mean-reversion bias on the board, I'd have to [...]

Dear Subscriber, Strong IPO action helped price peak over its downtrend channel for a slight gain on the day, as led by the Industrials.  We have another slight positive bias on the board for Friday, but the rapid fall in volatility is also ringing a bearish VIX:VXV alert, suggesting we may not be completely out [...]

Dear Subscriber, Our HV alert came off the board on today's test of the fifty-day moving average.  This level held, but it was certainly looking tenuous at the mid-day.  While persistent recent weakness has the intermediate trend now also pointing down, I'll be very slightly bullishly biased for tomorrow based on the downward move in [...]

Dear Subscriber,  Our ETF Ranks modality has gone to neutral along with price action, which has entered a range between SPY $133 and $136.  With the short-term trend wavering back down to a bearish reading, we nevertheless have a slight bullish bias after the Friday pullback.  Overall this has me neutral for Monday, although I’ll [...]

Dear Subscriber,  We got our lower lows, quickly followed up by a nice odds ‘Lap-Down-Level 3′ fill and then some (See ‘Gaps’ tab) in alignment with last night’s bullish bias.  This is the sweet spot of bull market ‘Lap’ odds trading.  A Lap-Down is an Open that is below the prior day’s Closing price.  After [...]

Dear Subscriber, Friday's moderate recovery still left a good deal of room for continued upside with a mild bullish bias still on the board for Monday.  However, the short-term trend remains down and I was mildly concerned to see the VIX close higher on a recovery Friday, which may be  a negative.  Also, overseas trade [...]

Dear Subscriber, Commodities took it on the chin again today (DBC -7%) on demand concerns and dollar strength.  Equities were a bit dicey as well, closing down broadly.  However, there were select pockets of strength, and with oversold conditions now more firmly established in time and a strong bullish bias for tomorrow, I have greater [...]

Dear Subscriber, Breadth deteriorated today with Energy (XLE), Small Caps (IWM) and Emerging Markets (EEM) leading the moderate broad index retreat.  While the primary bearish signal remains on the board in conjunction with a short-term trend reversal and a large-move-ahead warning, the pull-back has mended the modality of our ETF Ranks considerably,leaving it increasingly bullish.  [...]