Rate worries put a lid on any rallies this week. China deciding not to lower rates and election rumors have the futures below Friday’s low. Next week favors either continued chop with the downside likely targeting around the 50-day moving average at 1971 or more upside. Furthermore, based on the V-shaped bottoms since 2012, the risk/reward favors that we do make another new high above 2011.17 especially with financials leading. FOMC is on tap next week and option expiration should bring extra fireworks.
SPY and DIA are forming positive cup and handle patterns. NASDAQ is very extended trading well above the recent trend channel, but high betas are leading. After a good run, some back an fill last week seem to refresh the overall market and hint at more upside.
The hallmark of this bull market has been rotation and for this rally to continue we could see more of that next week. V shaped rally and the most recent shallow pull-back hints the market has more upside to come. While beginning of September is strong, seasonality tapers off into mid September where crash articles often appear; however, recent years September had acted reasonably positive
Another narrow range day with low volume. Although it was a red day the losses were modest.
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One interesting aspect of Tuesday’s action is the SPY gapped up above Monday’s close, and never filled that gap. This made the 2nd day in a row with an unfilled up gap. The study below is one I’ve shown before in the subscriber letter. It examined other times SPY left 2 unfilled up gaps and closed at a 50-day high. All stats are updated. Read the rest of this entry »