ETF Prophet

Its 180 days since we have a correction of at least 5%.  Bulls are holding on to their positions, even rolling into 1700 June calls and 1800 September calls.   It would take a severe down week close to turn the trend down.  Look for bulls to continue to push before Memorial weekend and large POMO [...]

After closing 3% above the old high, it looks like we could be leaning bullish for the next half year.  Could we have buy May and go away this year?  In the past ten years, houses have doubled while stocks traded in a wide range, could the recent breakout lead to a lot more gains?   [...]

Again the 1600 May call buyers seemed prudent.  On the one hand, we have a couple of breakaway gaps below as that could signal a run to 1650 in the next couple of weeks.  On the other we could have hit a short term high and we could spend the next 1-5 days back and [...]

This is a nice bounce Friday, but will need to see some follow through to sound the all clear signal. It is likely that the market continues to chop around the 50ma level and build a new base. The Boston bombing was unexpected and took the wind out of the bulls.  I have 156.80 SPY [...]

The 1580 call buyers were proven right this week.  With unlimited QE and Japan joining the party, dip buyers are continuing to be rewarded.  S&P 1600 and Dow 15,000 maybe on deck next week.

The bulls continue to climb the Cyprus wall of worry as we closed out 1st quarter.  The technical picture looks good with a recent consolidation and breakout to new highs.  With little in the way of resistance other than an overbought condition, markets are free to rise.  Could there be some give back?  There will [...]

Cyprus was quickly forgotten as the FOMC got under way and Ben reaffirmed infinite QE.  The market closed again within a few points of recent high.  We have month end next and bulls still have the wind at their backs.  Apple had gotten going off its bottom and may have $500 insight.  If the Apple [...]

The Mosaic rotating commodity based model has seen impressive results lately. Most of the short term returns have been a product of  UNG gains but a quick look at the component charts shows good momentum in XLU as well…so a top 2 sort also produces nice returns. By avoiding the equity/bond skew using commodities we [...]

The DJIA finally breaks its longest winning streak in many years, but the market held in remarkably well. The pop and grind market continues as banks and housing continue to recover.  Even lagging APPL broke out of its downtrend line after getting support at the $420 level.  With the FOMC on deck next week,  bulls [...]

This week we saw a breakaway gap to a new month high.  With the bullish March option expiration, POMO, FOMC meeting in the next two weeks, bulls will have sights set on all time high 1570 and then 1600.  Buying 10 point dips intraday may still be the way to go.  That said, we should [...]

One of the fun ways I spend my time is reviewing the FED’s buying policy.  It’s easy to track and the schedule is updated every month automatically. Over on the Mosaic site I posted a simple system earlier in the week that’s worked out pretty well so far this year and doesn’t require a lot [...]

Here’s why Chinese business will always produce goods cheaper than the US.  You’ll have to endure the 10 second intro (in Chinese) but the wait is well worth it. Here’s the T6 bull model update.  You might expect IWM or QQQ to be top ranked but XLU’s actually what’s making new money right now as [...]

Volatility picked up last week and it is a welcome change of pace for traders.  The bears failed to capitalize on a few golden opportunities but that is to be expected after such long run up.  Markets had a tendency to bottom in late February and run up into March.  However, March had often marked [...]

The last day of February and one day before the debt ceiling deadline.  But no one seems too concerned about it.  Somehow these crises have always proved to be only a temporary fly in the ointment in the past and the market response to this issue has been to simply ignore it. The folks at [...]

It started a little slow Friday morning as the bears made one attempt at the open to fade the strength.  Volume was light and that seemed to favor the bulls.  In the QE world, the first dip after a long straight up move is often bought and low-volume bounces have a tendency to keep on running. [...]

We had some large ticks when we made our low Friday at SPY 151.5.  While it led to an intraday low, I am wondering if it marks the beginning of a pickup in volatility as the calendar moves into the weaker part of February .  At the same time, we have to keep in mind that [...]

Here’s an update of the “simple”  Mosaic T6 portfolio mentioned previously in these posts.  There’s no bear component in this mix save for a bit of safety in XLU (Utilities). This is a bull market portfolio and, as we shall see, it may be time to cut our position size or CASH outright.  Short term [...]