ETF Prophet

It’s one of those days with bonds falling in concert with equities.  The VIX is up moderately but days like this can be head scratchers.  TLT and other bond ETFs are due to go ex-div on Aug 2 but you must be a holder of record on Aug1 to pick up the payout.  You can [...]

Here’s a little exercise using the Delta Bands and FXC, the Canadian Dollar. I’m testing the robustness of the system on a variety of securities and this is about par for the course.  Similar results for EEM and TLT plus a gaggle of others.  There’s more noise on the dollar and euro (UUP & FXE) [...]

This is a followup to Friday’s optimism about the % change band. I refined the concept a bit and here are the results for GE… a system I call the Delta Band.  The performance metrics for TLT are almost identical and initial studies suggest this signal could be a useful swing trading tool, especially if [...]

After months of researching and coding and much help from Jeff Pietsch, I have finally completed the basic Walk Forward Test!

On a happy note, the Mosaic RYDEX model is holding solid amidst the recent market volatility.  In some ways the RYDEX approach results are superior to an ETF bsed Mosaic model, reflecting the way  most RYDEX funds are engineered with a leverage skew. The per share pricing of the RYDEX funds also means less capital [...]

This is the status of the Mosaic models as of Monday’s close. We are seeing a flattening of the equity curves but the good news is the models aren’t running negative and are retaining accumulated gains.  The RM actively managed model is liking cash for the past three weeks, hence the sustained 140% readings.  On [...]

On Feb 29th I published Mosaic and Dow Theory. This is a follow up to that post adding a Conditional clause to the entry signal that specifies a day of week that signal will fire.  For purposes of this study we’ll just consider the difference between entering the trade of Friday’s close as opposed to [...]

I’ve been working on bigger projects till about a week ago then I got real curious about a trading idea: what happens to S&P 500 next week when commodity currencies are aligned up or down the same day? What happens if I want to reduce the drawdown periods and increase the run-up periods? what happens [...]

This is an update of current performance of the Mosaic models versus SPY and the RM version is showing its stuff in the midst of our little pullback.  Keep in mind that these values are based on a rolling 1000 day lookback so 4 Yr APR and 2012 targets will change each week as the [...]

This is an expanded performance table comparing the incremental moves in Mosaic, Mosaic RM and SPY over the past 12 weeks.  As noted previously Mosaic is engineered to move like a turtle, not a rabbit.  Mosaic also uses no chart analysis. The values in the last 3 columns represent the total gains (1.45 = 145%) [...]

We’re getting some mixed signals on GDX and with the TrendX Z signal reversing to the upside this morning so we closed the open Short position for a modest $98 gain. It’s unusual to see this signal reverse before hitting the lower support line but HEY!, surprises are the name of the game in this [...]

The TrendX signaled a short cover at Thursday’s close and a BUY at today’s open.  Interestingly, Thursday’s closing price on GDX was the same as today’s open, with Friday providing some possible early entry momentum. The larger markets are clearly at major support levels and despite media hype the technical picture doesn’t look all that [...]

Here’s the current (Monday ..90 minutes in) TrendX view of GDX.  While we were tempted to cover our short position on Friday we stuck with it after much hand wringing and our faith was rewarded this morning.  Notice the reversed position of the pc (yellow) signal line, it now aligns with price action (previously an [...]

Here’s a few more details on the use of the TrendX indicator…shown here on the Qs….an index not known for easy technical analysis. Note the position of the vertical marker line on the chart at Oct. 7th…a date when the HLC Trend and the Detrend both cross the zero line to the upside.  This corresponds [...]

Here are 2 perspectives on recent GDX price behavior.  The upper chart profiles the TRENDX and Detrend while the lower chart displays StockCharts’ spin on GDX bullishness.  Both charts suggest the same conclusion…a pause or decline in imminent.  The HLC TREND (floating pivot)  indicator has been very reliable in the past foreseeing reversals off 2 [...]

Today’s open put the HLC TREND line dead on technical support at -3.  We only seen 3 other situations in the past year where SPY has broken this support level, the last 2 being in August and September so the current situation should not be ignored.  Also note the position of the HLC Trend X [...]

Note the red line on SPY daily bars…the SPY’s current level.  The channel that has provided support and resistance since August has actually been reliable for traders..excepting a few gut wrenching days when it looked like the abyss was just a mouse click away. Previous bounces off the resistance line have been characterized by hairy [...]