ETF Prophet

Here’s a little bit of fun using another approach to day of week momentum.  It’s a simple set up entering the trade on Wednesday’s close if Wednesday’s close is higher than Monday’s and Tuesday’s close.. and then holds for one week.  Designed to pick up the surges, it’s done a very respectable job with only [...]

We’re getting some mixed signals on GDX and with the TrendX Z signal reversing to the upside this morning so we closed the open Short position for a modest $98 gain. It’s unusual to see this signal reverse before hitting the lower support line but HEY!, surprises are the name of the game in this [...]

The TrendX signaled a short cover at Thursday’s close and a BUY at today’s open.  Interestingly, Thursday’s closing price on GDX was the same as today’s open, with Friday providing some possible early entry momentum. The larger markets are clearly at major support levels and despite media hype the technical picture doesn’t look all that [...]

Here’s the current (Monday ..90 minutes in) TrendX view of GDX.  While we were tempted to cover our short position on Friday we stuck with it after much hand wringing and our faith was rewarded this morning.  Notice the reversed position of the pc (yellow) signal line, it now aligns with price action (previously an [...]

Here’s a few more details on the use of the TrendX indicator…shown here on the Qs….an index not known for easy technical analysis. Note the position of the vertical marker line on the chart at Oct. 7th…a date when the HLC Trend and the Detrend both cross the zero line to the upside.  This corresponds [...]

Updated for today first 2 hours, the  SPY TrendX is hugging the zero line while the Detrend looks to be rolling over after last week’s low volume bump. Once we cross the Detrend zero line the odds are clearly with the bears and  later this week we’ll explore some simple TrendX code to better define [...]

Here are 2 perspectives on recent GDX price behavior.  The upper chart profiles the TRENDX and Detrend while the lower chart displays StockCharts’ spin on GDX bullishness.  Both charts suggest the same conclusion…a pause or decline in imminent.  The HLC TREND (floating pivot)  indicator has been very reliable in the past foreseeing reversals off 2 [...]

Today’s open put the HLC TREND line dead on technical support at -3.  We only seen 3 other situations in the past year where SPY has broken this support level, the last 2 being in August and September so the current situation should not be ignored.  Also note the position of the HLC Trend X [...]

This is a continuation of the HLC Trend indicator post and shows the actual signals created by the cross of the HLC and the MA7.  We’ve plotted the HLC in green and the MA7 in red so it’s easy to see that when the green line has the upper hand the signal is bullish and [...]

TLT typically trades contrary to SPY, so how does it perform on the Sell Friday setup?  One way to find out is to revise our code and specify SPY as Data2.  Then we can see more precisely how TLT reacts to SPY dynamics and we reverse our > and < triggers to reflect TLT’s negative [...]

 Sounds like Frankenstein talking, but here’s a simple SPY system that Sells Thursday’s close and exits Monday at the open. It also Buys Monday’s close and exits Friday at the open. By selling the Thursday close we get a little edge on typical Friday weakness and improve our net return considerably.  I’ve added a little [...]

Two hours into the day and TLT is on a tear, confounding short sellers and still providing a partial hedge against the renewed decay in the financials.  We’ve laid the Project Z (daily bar) template on TLT to assess the current forecast and, as noted yesterday, there is an obvious divergence in momentum and the [...]

Continuing our TLT analysis here’s Project Z’s log ratio approach to define TLT’s correlation with the VIX…this time using weekly bars and looking back to 2004.  A 14 period Detrend oscillator is also displayed as it has proven to be a reliable confirmation signal.  Expanding the chart will reveal pivot high (red) and pivot low [...]

In this study we look at how Project Z prospects potential trades in TLT and we update the Pivot Impulse indicator with a new look, a mean reversion algorithm based on the dynamic expansion and contraction of the daily pivot point range.  Project Z is the workhorse of the current study and continues to deliver [...]

Well, it’s almost there according to Project Z readings.  TLT has had a nice run up lately and the Double 3s setup is actually calling a new Long signal.  But you know me..I’ve always got one foot out the door and the Z Score indicator, which has been 78% reliable over the last 16 months, [...]

A few days ago I posted the SMH Quick Step setup and yesterday’s close was the programmed timed exit for the latest trade . . which produced a nice 8.4% gain over 6 days. The fixed bar exit turned out to be perfectly timed as today’s open showed SMH (and EEM) two of the weaker components of [...]

This is the last of the Lazy Man correlation posts.  My goal over the past couple weeks has been demonstrate that a more holistic approach to trading the markets such as the Lazy Man composite signal can deliver reliable and consistent returns.  This methodology is obviously a trend following system and won’t deliver the high drama returns [...]

Regular readers know that I regard GE as the equivalent of an ETF although it does have a beta of 1.7.  Because GE is really a conglomerate of multiple businesses . .  financial, technical, manufacturing and service, it responds to a variety of market forces with a greater volatility than the standard DIA, SPY, IWM [...]