ETF Prophet

Here’s something you don’t see everyday…bonds and equities are both positive.  This is a little real time tool that I created in TC2000 to monitor what’s going on with Mosaic’s  market neutral skew.  Most of the time I just look at it EOD as it’s helpful in confirming the MRSI and impending VIXEN signals. While [...]

  Here’s a final look at the RYDEX model before we discard it onto the dust heap of failed good ideas.  What you’re not seeing is the 4% drawdown metric during the life of the model, an exceeding low and exceedingly attractive risk factor.  Note how RYDEX performed late 2008 compared to SPY.  Although we [...]

Yesterday I mentioned the Risk Spread chart of the RYDEX Mosaic and today’s we take a quick look at the status of the ETF Mosaic.  A different portfolio with a different market neutral skew and the ETF model appears to be ahead of the RYDEX model in making the zero line turn.  We still need [...]

A performance check of the old reliable XLF/TLT pair trade reveals some disturbing discrepancies between trade signals and subsequent price action.The  steady slope of the equity curve that has endured for 6 months has now hit a bumpy patch, with several recent losing trades that did not violate the N day time limit…the risk parameter [...]

I’ve been working on bigger projects till about a week ago then I got real curious about a trading idea: what happens to S&P 500 next week when commodity currencies are aligned up or down the same day? What happens if I want to reduce the drawdown periods and increase the run-up periods? what happens [...]

This is the other side of the Mosaic equation…the hedging ETFs.  Keep in mind that our goal is to create a market neutral position and then collect premium decay and any possible price appreciation while at the same time limiting our downside risk.  Note that VIX is included in our hedging portfolio.  This ETF is [...]

If this looks a lot like the Lazy Man metrics dashboard, that’s because it is.  What I’m trying to do is determine which of my target ETFs display the greatest momentum, strength of trend and relative strength.  I’ve built all the metrics in Worden Bros. Telechart 2011, the mothership of FreeStockCharts.  I can do more [...]

The TrendX signaled a short cover at Thursday’s close and a BUY at today’s open.  Interestingly, Thursday’s closing price on GDX was the same as today’s open, with Friday providing some possible early entry momentum. The larger markets are clearly at major support levels and despite media hype the technical picture doesn’t look all that [...]

Here’s a few more details on the use of the TrendX indicator…shown here on the Qs….an index not known for easy technical analysis. Note the position of the vertical marker line on the chart at Oct. 7th…a date when the HLC Trend and the Detrend both cross the zero line to the upside.  This corresponds [...]

Being old and feeble I tend to be a myopic trader, focusing on just a few issues… and regular readers know GDX one of my core interests.  My early November post on GDX noted its penetration of resistance at $63 and since then its been in a relatively straight line free fall since then, losing [...]

Here’s a little update on the DBC DBA pair trade that I’ve mentioned previously.  Currently LONG DBA this trade has a super smooth equity curve … expected with an 95% linearity.  The incremental P&L is just that…incremental, and the last 8 trades have all been winners.  This pair trade is somewhat unique in the regular [...]

When I mentioned yesterday that it looked like a quick run to the 58s for GDX I didn’t think it would happen in one day…but there you go.  GDX is shown as the shaded chart behind the Lazy Man 5 Rotator and dramatically illustrates the juggernaut power that GDX is showing.  TLT is recovering a [...]

Following Friday’s positive comments on GDX, it’s blowing the doors off today.  Go GDX!!!. This should be a quick ride up to the 58 region..all things being equal.  The real story is EEM, which is finally showing recovery strength having been severely beaten down since mid July. On the Lazy Man Rotator EEM has held [...]

Well, one might have thought we’d have had a breakout given the tremendous turnaround, and the QQQs are certainly leading in that direction (now a Top-Three ETF), but in-fact, the S&P 500 (SPY) only tagged the upper end of its multi-month range, finishing higher on the week by another +5.9%. While optimism is high, risk [...]

The TLT component of the simple Three-ETF model has the system overall remaining in cash. However, with the QQQs now added, further equity gains could change that in the weeks ahead should a year-end rally emerge. This model is derived from the Weekly ETF Rewind, and is tracked with the system-level stop overlay as part [...]

Here’s the action in today’s first 20 minutes on the heels of yesterday’s surge.  Shown on 2 minute bars note the VXX intersects yesterday at 12:15 (market BUY) and at  3:45 (market SELL).  The Prognosticator LRs turned over neatly just before the intersects giving a fair warning of things to come.  Today’s volume BUZZ is [...]

EEM continues to run, encouraged by positive developments in the Slovakia situation. Hey! Who knew this was even a problem?  Today we turn the Lazy Man Rotator on its head and use VXX as the focus (shadow) chart, which also means the lower technical panel…the Prognosticator…becomes a useful contrary indicator to market momentum.  VXX can [...]

Halfway through Monday and EEM is holding top slot in the Lazy Man Rotator.  It’s always helpful to look at what’s holding up and what’s not on trend days like today and EEM has so far maintained stellar momentum.  This should actually come as no surprise since today’s rally is (supposedly) driven by positive weekend [...]