ETF Prophet

After months of researching and coding and much help from Jeff Pietsch, I have finally completed the basic Walk Forward Test!

I’ve been working on bigger projects till about a week ago then I got real curious about a trading idea: what happens to S&P 500 next week when commodity currencies are aligned up or down the same day? What happens if I want to reduce the drawdown periods and increase the run-up periods? what happens [...]

When I mentioned yesterday that it looked like a quick run to the 58s for GDX I didn’t think it would happen in one day…but there you go.  GDX is shown as the shaded chart behind the Lazy Man 5 Rotator and dramatically illustrates the juggernaut power that GDX is showing.  TLT is recovering a [...]

Following Friday’s positive comments on GDX, it’s blowing the doors off today.  Go GDX!!!. This should be a quick ride up to the 58 region..all things being equal.  The real story is EEM, which is finally showing recovery strength having been severely beaten down since mid July. On the Lazy Man Rotator EEM has held [...]

EEM continues to run, encouraged by positive developments in the Slovakia situation. Hey! Who knew this was even a problem?  Today we turn the Lazy Man Rotator on its head and use VXX as the focus (shadow) chart, which also means the lower technical panel…the Prognosticator…becomes a useful contrary indicator to market momentum.  VXX can [...]

Halfway through Monday and EEM is holding top slot in the Lazy Man Rotator.  It’s always helpful to look at what’s holding up and what’s not on trend days like today and EEM has so far maintained stellar momentum.  This should actually come as no surprise since today’s rally is (supposedly) driven by positive weekend [...]

Well… so much for that fade at the open and I left a few bucks on the table betting that side of the game.  Net Long was the place to be with no gap fade even as the NYAD opened at an astounding 32…currently at a still astounding 9. Little surprise as EEM leads the [...]

Virtually every advisory service is calling for new lows (perhaps substantial) in gold and while GLD followed the downslope, GDX managed to buck the trend and reverse course for a nice 1.5+% gain. The strong positive momentum kicked off 2 hours prior to the close and never looked back. Confidence that the Euro debt situation [...]

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My personal quote of the week:
The quality of your life is in direct proportion to the amount of uncertainty you can comfortably deal with. ~Tony Robbins
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- Frank

Mid day and an ill wind is blowing through the markets.  The day started off with the NYAD at .09, which was actually positive since this is a typical turn around threshold…but with the usual market frustrations, NYAD as risen to .16 at post time while the market is down another 50 points….go figure. No [...]

A lot of chatter today on the strength of the Qs but a quick glance at the Lazy Man Rotator indicates SMH is the better bet.  We looked at this last week when the SMH 5 day trend was leading the pack and the Rotator shows SMH still has twice the trend strength of the [...]

Halfway through today’s minefield and volatility is the name of the game as the Italian situation continues to generate uncertainty ripples. Based soley on the 5 day trend strength (see metrics panel) VXX and SMH are the leaders to follow…closely trailed by GDX.  This trend doesn’t factor in the daily ATR in these ETFs, which [...]

Halfway through Monday and price continues to cycle between S1 and PP pivots for the majors. The Qs are the momentum leader for the present with EEM pulling up the rear…as with last week.  SMH and the Qs have the best 5 day trend along with VXX, which as mentioned previously, moves to the tune [...]

The initial opening ugliness has turned downright dismal after a brief but failed attempt to rally.  A bit surprising, but the NYAD is hanging in there at .15..definitely bearish but not sub .10 where we would expect it to be with the market down over 300 points.  The bad news..it means there’s more downside potential [...]

Yesterday saw most of the majors close at the R3 pivot after a closing bull charge of likely short seller covering.  Today may be more of a test of the market’s true feelings as early poop and scoop action has morphed into a run to the PP (baseline) pivot.  Many traders neglect the incredible power [...]

  Everything’s green today except VIX and VXX, although the VXX, in its usual schizoid behavior, is actually up 1% for the day. There is no VOLUME  BUZZ, not the metric column….just no volume buzz.  After the opening pop and drop things have rebounded somewhat to R2 with little momentum pushing either way, thereby increasing [...]