ETF Prophet

Today’s Pomo was piddling and it was Friday so I wasn’t expecting much mojo. Nevertheless we did see some interesting catch up moves in the Rotator including the closing of the GDX /GDX spread noted Wednesday (GLD still has the better technicals) and the continued strength of DBC relative to XLB, a reversal of the morning’s [...]

I’ve previously explored the nuances of DBC and XLB in detail. It was actually something of a horse race for those 2 issues today and one of the nice features of the freestockcharts real time BATS feed is that you can watch all these metrics adjust on a minute by minute basis during the day. [...]

Good news . . GLD held up very nicely today, as opposed to GDX . .  that dropped 2.2 %.  The miners have been weak relative to bullion lately and NEM is an even more dramatic case of gold miners’ weakness. Just for reference here’s the Lazy Man template with GLD as the focus (shaded) [...]

Here’s a quick look around the world and, no surprise, fear and selling are endemic.  The surprise is that EWJ ended up the % Change winner for the day, but it sure didn’t start out that way as EWJ plunged dramatically at the open.  We’re seeing some serious oversold conditions not only in many of [...]

On the heels of last night’s post its obvious that TLT was the superior choice in lieu of EEM, but then every thing’s always clearer in hindsight. A bit surprising that the volume buzz wasn’t greater in TLT this morning but the bulk of big volume numbers can probably be traced to selling, not buying.  [...]

The Lazy Man is long EEM as of Friday’s close based on 2 out of 3 two day bar signals.  Its actually been a toss up between TLT and EEM but the mean reversion possibilities for EEM ultimately edged out an essentially neutral forecast for TLT.  This is tough market to be overweight on the long [...]

Some developments of note following the previous Thursday EOD post.  Of note is SMH, mentioned previously as a resilient target which this morning is outstanding for its Volume Buzz  (let’s assume the SH volume buzz is short covering). Also note the 5 day trend vs the market column which favors SMH strength. The NYAD is still hovering [...]

At yesterday’s open the big volume buzz was with SMH, which held up nicely for the first 90 minutes before throwing in the towel and joining the broad retreat led by gold and oil. As a result, the only issues that closed in the green yesterday were negative beta issues. This is a revised version of [...]

This is the last of the Lazy Man correlation posts.  My goal over the past couple weeks has been demonstrate that a more holistic approach to trading the markets such as the Lazy Man composite signal can deliver reliable and consistent returns.  This methodology is obviously a trend following system and won’t deliver the high drama returns [...]

Today’s first 90 minutes on the Lazy Man Rotator gave a clear signal of things to come for the rest of the day.  We did have several mini fades during the rest of the session but ultimately the % Change sort looked pretty much like the above at the end of the day. Note how [...]

Regular readers know that I regard GE as the equivalent of an ETF although it does have a beta of 1.7.  Because GE is really a conglomerate of multiple businesses . .  financial, technical, manufacturing and service, it responds to a variety of market forces with a greater volatility than the standard DIA, SPY, IWM [...]

I will forego the IWM pyramiding study mentioned on Friday in lieu of jumping over to examine how DIA responds to the Lazy Man aggregate signal. Most traders probably don’t consider DIA a boutique ETF but it’s comprised of only 30 stocks and  big prop shops focus major capital on select components every day using various tactics to accentuate momentum [...]

This is a continuation of yesterday’s study of the IWM using the Lazy Man template as a trading signal.  One of the unique features of this approach is that the indicators embedded in the Prognosticator have little value in triggering a trade signal.  The important factor is the momentum of IWM relative to the aggregated momentum of [...]

In the latest Lazy Man study I’ve merged the old 3 Finger Lead concept with the Lazy Man (SPY, EEM, XLB, QQQQ and TLT) to forecast trade opportunities in the BZB Market Rotator portfolio of 13 ETFs and 1 stock (GE). These signals are completely independent of the Prognosticator signal but we’ll work on merging the [...]

With its recent surge to new highs GLD is now bumping up against short term resistance at 140.  The weekly chart indicates that level has produced at least a minor hiccup during the previous quarter although the Prognosticator, as noted in several recent posts, is moving more and more into the bullish camp. GDX, the [...]

Just a quick update to Monday’s action. A late afternoon swoon took the wind out of the market’s early head winds but, true to form, the last 90 minutes produced the high of the day for most positive beta issues.  In the Lazy Man portfolio XLB was the top performer, reinforcing its role as Friday’s selection [...]

One correlated outcome of the rising Euro (we’ll talk about that later) is the decline in the dollar (shaded chart), which looks poised to hit its November sub-22 low.  The Prognosticator is near neutral when attempting to forecast dollar direction.  Depending on the time frame reviewed there is little fractal alignment of the signals.  Meanwhile, FXE [...]

Scenario # 2 took hold today with the VIX plunging 10% as oversold conditions moved back towards mean reversion parity.  GLD climbed back into the bull saddle with a nice .66% gain . . not a new high but an impressive return to it’s close 2 days ago.  A bit of a surprise today but [...]