ETF Prophet

A performance check of the old reliable XLF/TLT pair trade reveals some disturbing discrepancies between trade signals and subsequent price action.The  steady slope of the equity curve that has endured for 6 months has now hit a bumpy patch, with several recent losing trades that did not violate the N day time limit…the risk parameter [...]

We’ve examined some VXX (ETN VIX proxy) attributes in past posts, mostly centered on decay factors inherent in this issue.  In the process of updating the PDQ Dashboard here’s a real time look at the VXX forecast as of 2 hours in today.  With the VIX hitting 15.23 this morning the odds are clearly to [...]

Bonds have been a bit squirrely lately as the financials have surged so here’s a quick look at recent activity one of our most reliable pair trades -  XLF/TLT.  As of today’s close we are flat both positions.  Note the last trade of record…a substantial loser which was easily avoided by simply following the fixed [...]

Here’s a little update on the DBC DBA pair trade that I’ve mentioned previously.  Currently LONG DBA this trade has a super smooth equity curve … expected with an 95% linearity.  The incremental P&L is just that…incremental, and the last 8 trades have all been winners.  This pair trade is somewhat unique in the regular [...]

Halfway through Monday and EEM is holding top slot in the Lazy Man Rotator.  It’s always helpful to look at what’s holding up and what’s not on trend days like today and EEM has so far maintained stellar momentum.  This should actually come as no surprise since today’s rally is (supposedly) driven by positive weekend [...]

In the on-going search for short term leading indicators FXE has done a nice job of leading SPY action over the past 2 months.  Above is the FXE chart with  SPY shown as the orange line overlay…all on 2 minute bars.  These correlations tend to exhaust periodically and the ETFR Pairs Model is an easy [...]

TLT typically trades contrary to SPY, so how does it perform on the Sell Friday setup?  One way to find out is to revise our code and specify SPY as Data2.  Then we can see more precisely how TLT reacts to SPY dynamics and we reverse our > and < triggers to reflect TLT’s negative [...]

Expanding yesterday’s silver study to include FXE – the Euro proxy- helps to better see silver’s typical behavior.  Only 5 trades in the last 4 months and the current one should probably have been stopped out  3 days ago when a nice profit was in hand.  Those reversals off the zero line can be costly [...]

Despite the bum’s rush in gold, the other precious metal – silver -  has been lagging…..leading a number of advisory services to remark on this disparity and pound the table in favor of silver as the long term better play. There are actually a number of technical arguments that support such a position but for [...]

The XLF/TBT pair model has produced a nice equity curve during the recent market turmoil but now appears a bit overextended.  Recent gains have pushed the curve well above the R Squared line and current signals should be considered cautiously.  There are 2 ways to trade this model, one using Z score band reversals and [...]

Finishing off our study of DBA today with a look at the DBA and MOO dynamics.  We would be surprised if the bovine factor wasn’t highly correlated with DBA and our ETFR pairs study does not disappoint. The 17 day projected excursion is a nice easy swing cycle and the one losing trade out of [...]

On the tails of yesterday’s DBA/UUP setup, this is a look at how GDX can be useful as a confirmation signal, albeit on a somewhat longer time frame.  These are impressive % gains for a 21 day excursion and it should be noted that the one losing trade…closed on 8/2…had clearly exceeded the 21 day [...]

I’m holding off for a day on the VXX straddle setup to examine a play on DBA, an ETF that’s been the focus of several advisory services lately as an alternate safe haven…Hey!…everybody’s gotta eat.   It’s  fairly difficult to find strong pair correlators with DBA but UUP puts in a nice effort.  Regular readers know [...]

On the heels of yesterday’s LONG TBT signal, today’s metrics (updated as of (9:30 am PST) show TLT and GLD essentially at a neutral, zero line situation.   In real time both issues are down– GLD -2% and TLT -.5%.  This correlated alignment is expected so there’s no surprise here as we wait for a [...]

  Things have been a bit squirrely in bonds lately with noted market gurus variously calling TLT the “short of the century” or the “ultimate safe haven”.  Although TLT has been resilient beyond most traders wildest imagination, the chickens (as the saying goes) may be coming home to roost.  One way to get a handle [...]

A quick look at the hourly chart and LM metrics indicate XLB is leading the 5 day trend, closely followed by GDX which has benefited from multiple  BUY rating updates.  The real action this morning is on XLU however, the old maid in most portfolios that’s blowing the doors off in early going along with [...]

Following yesterday’s introduction, this is a Delta Neutral setup using TLT and TBT to create a safe, albeit muted revenue stream. The setup requires selling calls to generate premium income, so positions are required to be  in 100 share lots.  In addition, we’ll collect dividends on the TLT side of the trade. The positions and [...]

I’ve been in Vegas for the past week exploring some new business opportunities and marveling at the woeful state of real estate there. You can actually buy a pretty  nice condo for $30-45 K at the frequent foreclosure auctions and foreign investors are snapping them up in lots of 5 and 10 to resell to [...]