ETF Prophet

I am periodically asked to update the performance of the two S&P 500-based models that are published at each close in the ETF Rewind Pro newsletter.  Here are the original posts from over two years ago discussing the construction of these signals: Mrkt_MACD – Seeking Linearity (Chart 1) Mrkt_RSI – Relative Volatility & Mean Reversion I have updated the runs, [...]

We’re getting some mixed signals on GDX and with the TrendX Z signal reversing to the upside this morning so we closed the open Short position for a modest $98 gain. It’s unusual to see this signal reverse before hitting the lower support line but HEY!, surprises are the name of the game in this [...]

In a past post I blogged about the advantages of combining a short term mean reversion indicator with an intermediate term indicator of the same bent. Click here to view the post. As a recap, the DVI/B combo method helped…

Being old and feeble I tend to be a myopic trader, focusing on just a few issues… and regular readers know GDX one of my core interests.  My early November post on GDX noted its penetration of resistance at $63 and since then its been in a relatively straight line free fall since then, losing [...]

The miners (GDX) have been hit hard lately along with GLD and SLV but there’s a technical glimmer of hope for this volatile gold bug.  Currently at longer term support and itching for a break back up to the 6o’s we’re seeing some strong evidence of that move today.  It’s Friday so an afternoon fade [...]

On the heels of yesterday’s LONG TBT signal, today’s metrics (updated as of (9:30 am PST) show TLT and GLD essentially at a neutral, zero line situation.   In real time both issues are down– GLD -2% and TLT -.5%.  This correlated alignment is expected so there’s no surprise here as we wait for a [...]

Following my last post on the struggles the DVB indicator is having, a reader reminded me of this excellent post Jeff Pietsch’s market rewind blog. Worth a read certainly. The main highlights from this post for me are these three…

Continuing  our study of TBT, today’s post looks at how the XLF/TBT pair performs using the Z-Rank algorithm in lieu of the pure Z-Score.  The Z- Rank tends to have a slightly shorter excursion than the Z-Score and, as expected, “N” days drops to 13 from the original 14.  The Z-Rank also produces a 5 [...]

Here’s a tangential approach to trading TLT using the pair dynamics of XLF and TBT (the double short TLT ETF).  The pair has a bit of beta differential but the 14 day average excursion makes it a swing trader’s delight.  The equity curve of this simple pair is also very attractive with only 1 losing [...]

I’ve been out of action trading wise for the last month. I got married at the start of the month and enjoyed an active yet refreshing honeymoon in Peru for 3 weeks (We’re not beach people!). Even in the Peruvian…

“Today’s big U.S. Dollar move versus the Euro on the threat of French bank downgrades and riots in the streets of Greece has me thinking about the currencies’ respective Exchange Traded Fund proxies, UUP and FXE. Of course, all currency trades inherently involve the concept of long|short pairs, but using the ETF basket proxies does [...]

Following on from my last post looking at TSI rankings to choose the market to trade DVB, I thought I’d follow up on a couple of the ideas mooted in my last post. The general idea is to trade the…

With this post I want to share a simple GAP fading strategy. In my never ending desire to find complementary strategies to my existing portfolio of strategies. I looked into GAP fading. What’s GAP fading: Assuming a stock or ETF opens higher than yesterday’s close, you got a GAP. To fade a GAP you essentially [...]

I’ve been taking a look at gaps recently, specifically putting some numbers on David Varadi’s Normalised Gap/ Lap Indicator. First, it’s good to set some benchmarks with regard to the performance of gap fades on SPY (S&P 500 ETF). I’ve…

Well, it’s almost there according to Project Z readings.  TLT has had a nice run up lately and the Double 3s setup is actually calling a new Long signal.  But you know me..I’ve always got one foot out the door and the Z Score indicator, which has been 78% reliable over the last 16 months, [...]

Just a heads up for TLT traders.  The PDQ is pretty bearish on the bond ETF and if we check the relative gains for each side of the pair trades a dominant pattern appears.  The PDQ, as we all know by now, tends to predict the next day’s momentum, so be advised.  The only caveat for [...]

A quick update of the latest Lazy Man Rotator pick for the week…. it’s XLB, a familiar name that’s been the Rotator choice since mid-March.  The underlying chart (shade) is our SPY benchmark, which has been a close performance competitor to XLB and has demonstrated a tad less volatility but, short term, the Lazy Man [...]

Three minute bars of the Lazy Man at mid day show the pack has calmed down a bit after the uber opening when the NYAD hit 18 (it’s now settled to a more rational 5.5).  VIX options expire today, down 6% to 14.30 at the open but now stabilized at 15.35.  Small POMO today, no [...]