ETF Prophet

We’ve examined some VXX (ETN VIX proxy) attributes in past posts, mostly centered on decay factors inherent in this issue.  In the process of updating the PDQ Dashboard here’s a real time look at the VXX forecast as of 2 hours in today.  With the VIX hitting 15.23 this morning the odds are clearly to [...]

TBT doesn’t normally cause heart palpitations but Thursday it dropped 1.5% in 5 minutes before rebounding back to parity in another 5 minutes on equal big volume bars.  TLT was the exact opposite action. And you thought you were trading on a level playing field.  This was 10 minutes BEFORE the FED announced that it [...]

To gain a full picture of TLT momentum we simultaneously monitor 2 charts on 2 minute bars…one of TLT with a VIX overlay and one of TBT with a NYAD overlay. We also use a 8/8 hi/lo channel and an SAR on each price chart.  The trading triggers are the convergence and confirmation signals of [...]

With this post I want to share a simple GAP fading strategy. In my never ending desire to find complementary strategies to my existing portfolio of strategies. I looked into GAP fading. What’s GAP fading: Assuming a stock or ETF opens higher than yesterday’s close, you got a GAP. To fade a GAP you essentially [...]

I’ve been taking a look at gaps recently, specifically putting some numbers on David Varadi’s Normalised Gap/ Lap Indicator. First, it’s good to set some benchmarks with regard to the performance of gap fades on SPY (S&P 500 ETF). I’ve…

If today’s Black’s Beach rescue news wasn’t enough (Google it yourself), price hit the common five-day moving average exit target early on, found support, and immediately proceeded to exhibit strong tell-tale signs of naked short-covering (ha ha) right up to the final hour, when an all clear to short was loudly broadcast. OK, not really [...]

Today’s Pomo was piddling and it was Friday so I wasn’t expecting much mojo. Nevertheless we did see some interesting catch up moves in the Rotator including the closing of the GDX /GDX spread noted Wednesday (GLD still has the better technicals) and the continued strength of DBC relative to XLB, a reversal of the morning’s [...]

I’ve previously explored the nuances of DBC and XLB in detail. It was actually something of a horse race for those 2 issues today and one of the nice features of the freestockcharts real time BATS feed is that you can watch all these metrics adjust on a minute by minute basis during the day. [...]

Today’s first 90 minutes on the Lazy Man Rotator gave a clear signal of things to come for the rest of the day.  We did have several mini fades during the rest of the session but ultimately the % Change sort looked pretty much like the above at the end of the day. Note how [...]

Just a quick update to Monday’s action. A late afternoon swoon took the wind out of the market’s early head winds but, true to form, the last 90 minutes produced the high of the day for most positive beta issues.  In the Lazy Man portfolio XLB was the top performer, reinforcing its role as Friday’s selection [...]

Scenario # 2 took hold today with the VIX plunging 10% as oversold conditions moved back towards mean reversion parity.  GLD climbed back into the bull saddle with a nice .66% gain . . not a new high but an impressive return to it’s close 2 days ago.  A bit of a surprise today but [...]

This is Friday’s volatility spread on 5 minute bars with SPY as the background focus ETF in the shaded area.  The short term Prognosticator for SPY picked up into the close with some of the big caps like WMT (reporting earnings on Tuesday) running up a full 1% or more.  On 1 hour bars the [...]

Talk in the chat room today mentioned FXI’s possible upswing so this seemed like a good time to check the Lazy Man Prognosticator forecast.  These are 4 hour bars and FXI is the shaded area.  By now you know that the technical panel only applies to the focus ETF . . FXI.  There are a few [...]

Hey, the more things change, the more they remain the same. A complete reversal from yesterday as the Lazy Man components revert to the longer term 3 day trend.  10 minute bars above show the mid -day convergence of volatility.  If you’re running the LM template just plug in VIX in lieu of GLD for [...]

Over the course of the next week we’ll spend several days dissecting quantitative arrays that may be used in conjunction with the Lazy Man chart template to identify superior (low risk and/or high probability) trading targets. Some of the metric columns reflect values embedded in the Prognosticator technical panel while other columns  (such as Volume Buzz [...]

Before laying out the metrics tracking panel for the Lazy Man template here’s a screenshot of the LM with GLD as the focus ETF (shaded area) on 2 minute bars.  Daytraders can use this template as a simple indicator to immediately assess the rotation of market sector correlation and divergence during the course of the day.  Using [...]

This is a another way to use the FSC Lazy Man template . . as a lens to detect the momentum leader of the moment across major market sectors. In this example a daily bar scale is shown but where things really get interesting is when we reset the bar scale to 5 or 10 minutes [...]

It’s an unlikely marriage of concepts . . the signal position of the VIX relative to all the major indices and the ongoing tribulations of Italy’s 74 year old prime minster who can still raise the ire of the Pope with his “bunga bunga” parties . . but here it is.  Ideally, the signals generated [...]