ETF Prophet

[I wrote a draft of this piece the other night and with well timed irony, the S&P 500 has finally pulled back] One thing that's puzzled me is what to do with trend following markets. There has been a lot of research on what to do with a mean reverting market using short term indicators [...]

After my recent post on indicator rotation, I noticed the excellent CXO advisory put something up on anomaly rotation. Their general finding is that investment anomaly's do persist and basing your trading/ investment strategies on the hottest anomalies can produce outstanding returns. What is an anomaly? Well according to efficient market hypothesis, there should be [...]

The FT have put up an excellent presentation on the reforms proposed by President Obama Clicky As the conclude at the end, it will be interesting to see what kind of watered down reform gets through congress. Very interesting interview with Volcker here

It's interesting to read the various reactions to the Volcker plan. Some are calling Obama a communist while others are backing it. Unfortunately there seems to be little by the way of solid detail on the plans, but I agree in principle that something major had to be done. Separating retail and more speculative banking [...]

Well there was no bounce on Friday, but a few things seemed a little odd to me. Not that the markets 'should' have bounced, indeed the trendline break and the potentially game changing news announcement were a red warning lights in retrospect.(S&P futs up 0.5% Monday as I write this though) However, there's something else [...]

Project goals: Financial milestones (In ascending order) 1.       Not to lose money over 12 months. 2.       Beat returns from guaranteed index linked bonds. Compound return at 7% 3.       Beat average total stock market returns at 12% 4.       Beat total stock market returns from time of investment. 5.       50% return on my investment net of costs. [...]

Change we can believe in? There was a heck of a lot of talk in the intimidate aftermath of the credit crunch regarding regulatory changes that would be made, but what if anything has actually been done? Sure there are some capital ratios that have been tweaked, but what about wider, more pervasive changes? My [...]

I’m a few chapters into reading Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink. An entertaining read and Gladwell certainly knows how to spin a good yarn. But in keeping with the advice I’ve read so far in Blink, I thought I’d share some potential criticism based on my initial reaction The central tenet of the book is that we [...]