ETF Prophet

Wow, that was quite a day.  Market heard the debt deal, and decided it didn’t like what it heard – and sold off hard. Let’s take a look at where the day ended.

Overbought is a tough condition – because the market can continue to be overbought for however long the market decides.  But on Friday one of my overbought/oversold indicators reached an extreme I haven’t seen in a while.  And that is why I sold into strength and also hedged my remaining positions.  Let’s take a look.

I was chatting with Jeff (Mrkt_Rwnd) today and we both had noticed the convergence of the SPY around some interesting price areas — an area I’m now calling “The Line in the Sand.”

I’ve been a big fan of watching the 10 year yield for sometime – and I think what is happening right now is very interesting.  If you think that stocks are overbought and due for a pullback (something that I also believe), it is hard to square that with what is happening in the 10 [...]

I remember back at the beginning of 2009 – starting around February and ending around June 2009 – the media started to publish pieces that raised the question of whether buy and hold investing was dead.  I remember thinking at the time “well, I guess now is the time to just buy and hold then.” [...]

2010 has been quite a year for me – so much to be thankful for – a new little boy (Bobby) and a very, very busy day job.  But it’s time I got back to posting to ETF Prophet on a regular basis.  One of the things holding me back from writing more was a [...]

To quote the A-Team, I love it when a plan comes together.  As I mentioned in this prior post, I thought that the dollar, which seems to have a strong correlation with the VIX at the moment, was reaching support.  I expected that the S&P500 would, in the event of the dollar reversal sell-off (or [...]

Well, I’m finally crawling out from under my day job and the birth of my second son (Bobby) – and now I’ve got a bit of time to do some posting.  Bobby is finally doing better – terrible colic has made life a bit tough for my wife and I – particularly her.  But he’s [...]

Once again, time to take a look at the markets for the week’s end.  We saw a lot of damage done this week. Obviously that rising wedge formation paid off to the down side.  That divergence in the Vortex prove prophetic as well (ha, ha punny).  We now have a bearish cross in the VIX [...]

Thought I’d update everyone on my view of the market.  Let’s start with an updated chart: We’re still on a buy on the Skills Index, but at over 70% we’re definitely overbought here from a macro perspective.  Our VIX RSI is still on a buy as is the Vortex indicator.  We bounced perfectly the existing [...]

In my continued time-starved state, I just wanted to post a quick link to a great piece from “A Dash of Insight.”  If you’re not a reader, I would suggest you start.  What I love about his writing is that he dismisses most traditional hard-line thinking in favor of more flexible thinking.  Here’s a good [...]

A friend of mine (very smart guy) started talking about this stock RXII – a small biotech – a while ago.  Talked about how they had great technology, patents, doctors, etc.  I ignored it – as I do most of the time (depends a bit on the person making the recommendation).   He also had [...]

As I mentioned in my last post, I was waiting for a pull back to the trend-line I had identified over the past month or so.  Let’s start by taking a closer look at it on a 30m ES chart.  So, unlike what happens to me most of the time, the market actually did what [...]

When Jeff invited me to be a part of ETF Prophet, I was really honored to be considered – after all, he had recruited some great people to blog here, and, well, I had been dead on my blog for at least a year.  The reasons why I stopped blogging included time commitments to my [...]

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April continued to be dominated by two themes: None of the strategies I track did much – they’re all pretty much sideways in a market like this.  They have a month up and then a month down.  In terms of MOMO1, this is actually what I would expect – the system performs best in a [...]

Image via Wikipedia That is all for today – the index is now, once again, on sell.  That means we’ll look for short side opportunities here.