ETF Prophet

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Boston - My name is Damian and I have been involved in trading stocks, futures and currencies for over 10 years. I currently reside with my wife, my son Max and two dogs outside of Boston, Massachusetts.

Friday Fun – Sound of Fear

Posted on January 13th, 2012

Will the market bounce?

Posted on August 2nd, 2011

Wow, that was quite a day.  Market heard the debt deal, and decided it didn’t like what it heard – and sold off hard. Let’s take a look at where the day ended.

Wicked Overbought

Posted on July 2nd, 2011

Overbought is a tough condition – because the market can continue to be overbought for however long the market decides.  But on Friday one of my overbought/oversold indicators reached an extreme I haven’t seen in a while.  And that is why I sold into strength and also hedged my remaining positions.  Let’s take a look.

The Line in the Sand

Posted on June 13th, 2011

I was chatting with Jeff (Mrkt_Rwnd) today and we both had noticed the convergence of the SPY around some interesting price areas — an area I’m now calling “The Line in the Sand.”

10 Year Treasuries – What are they telling us?

Posted on February 6th, 2011

I’ve been a big fan of watching the 10 year yield for sometime – and I think what is happening right now is very interesting.  If you think that stocks are overbought and due for a pullback (something that I also believe), it is hard to square that with what is happening in the 10 [...]

If the media says it, ignore it or do the opposite

Posted on January 3rd, 2011

I remember back at the beginning of 2009 – starting around February and ending around June 2009 – the media started to publish pieces that raised the question of whether buy and hold investing was dead.  I remember thinking at the time “well, I guess now is the time to just buy and hold then.” [...]

Reporting the Year End… (UUP)

Posted on December 31st, 2010

2010 has been quite a year for me – so much to be thankful for – a new little boy (Bobby) and a very, very busy day job.  But it’s time I got back to posting to ETF Prophet on a regular basis.  One of the things holding me back from writing more was a [...]

Follow-up on S&P500 and Dollar trade

Posted on October 22nd, 2010

To quote the A-Team, I love it when a plan comes together.  As I mentioned in this prior post, I thought that the dollar, which seems to have a strong correlation with the VIX at the moment, was reaching support.  I expected that the S&P500 would, in the event of the dollar reversal sell-off (or [...]

Dollars, VIX and the S&P 500 (SPY)

Posted on October 15th, 2010

Well, I’m finally crawling out from under my day job and the birth of my second son (Bobby) – and now I’ve got a bit of time to do some posting.  Bobby is finally doing better – terrible colic has made life a bit tough for my wife and I – particularly her.  But he’s [...]

Damian’s Weekly Review

Posted on August 15th, 2010

Once again, time to take a look at the markets for the week’s end.  We saw a lot of damage done this week. Obviously that rising wedge formation paid off to the down side.  That divergence in the Vortex prove prophetic as well (ha, ha punny).  We now have a bearish cross in the VIX [...]

Damian’s Weekly Review

Posted on August 8th, 2010

Thought I’d update everyone on my view of the market.  Let’s start with an updated chart: We’re still on a buy on the Skills Index, but at over 70% we’re definitely overbought here from a macro perspective.  Our VIX RSI is still on a buy as is the Vortex indicator.  We bounced perfectly the existing [...]

Avoid Light Switch Thinking

Posted on August 5th, 2010

In my continued time-starved state, I just wanted to post a quick link to a great piece from “A Dash of Insight.”  If you’re not a reader, I would suggest you start.  What I love about his writing is that he dismisses most traditional hard-line thinking in favor of more flexible thinking.  Here’s a good [...]

Diary of a Small Cap Stock Pick: RXII

Posted on August 2nd, 2010

A friend of mine (very smart guy) started talking about this stock RXII – a small biotech – a while ago.  Talked about how they had great technology, patents, doctors, etc.  I ignored it – as I do most of the time (depends a bit on the person making the recommendation).   He also had [...]

Damian’s Weekly Review

Posted on July 31st, 2010

As I mentioned in my last post, I was waiting for a pull back to the trend-line I had identified over the past month or so.  Let’s start by taking a closer look at it on a 30m ES chart.  So, unlike what happens to me most of the time, the market actually did what [...]

Excited to Be a Part of the Site

Posted on July 28th, 2010

When Jeff invited me to be a part of ETF Prophet, I was really honored to be considered – after all, he had recruited some great people to blog here, and, well, I had been dead on my blog for at least a year.  The reasons why I stopped blogging included time commitments to my [...]

What I'm reading….

Posted on May 15th, 2009

The Junk Rally and Quant Hedge Fund Performance: A Lesson in Asymmetric Risk Simons Questioned by Investors & Live-Blogging The Renaissance RIEF Call R/Finance 2009: Applied Finance with R

April System Updates

Posted on May 10th, 2009

April continued to be dominated by two themes: None of the strategies I track did much – they’re all pretty much sideways in a market like this.  They have a month up and then a month down.  In terms of MOMO1, this is actually what I would expect – the system performs best in a [...]

Skills Index goes on sell….

Posted on April 27th, 2009

Image via Wikipedia That is all for today – the index is now, once again, on sell.  That means we’ll look for short side opportunities here.