ETF Prophet

There is a possible seasonal influence that could have a bullish impact on the market this week. Op-ex week in general is pretty bullish. March, April, October, and December it has been especially so. S&P 500 options began trading in mid-1983. The…

The study below considers the extremely low reading in the TICK TomOscillator. The TICK TomOscillator is an indicator that uses recent closing TICK values to determine buying and selling interest at the end of the day. It was developed by Tom McClell…

Look like the SPY is going to open down more than it has dropped any single day so far in 2012.  This can be startling to market participants.  Many may be caught flatfooted.  Of course Tuesday is the #1 day to see a Turnaround.  Bu…

I’ve been asked many times what I believe has been my key to success as a trader. My answer normally is “I always test out my ideas. I never believe anything I read… Even if I wrote it.” It sounds funny but it is true. The tool I use to…

Wednesday’s action saw a new intraday high, an outside day, and a lower close, and it came after a closing high was made the day before. Engulfing reversal bars such as this are often viewed as bearish. I’ve looked at them a number of ways in the…

The study below looks at instances of SPX and VIX both closing positive on a Friday. The VIX has a tendency to move opposite the SPX, so when they move in the same direction, it can often suggest an edge over the next few days. Due to calendar effect…

When SPX hit a new 200-day high last Thursday (Feb 16), doing so deemed the 10/18/11 Follow-Through Day (FTD) “successful” according to the possible definitions of “success” I included in the FTD studies.

Based on the FTD studies, it is not a…

Friday is the last trading day before the President’s Day holiday. The day prior to many holidays we see a bullish tendency. This is NOT the case with Presidents Day. Over the last 20 years the Friday before President’s Day has been a very poor …

Action in SPY the last couple of days has been interesting as it has left large unfilled gaps in both directions. The Quantifinder identified the study below. It looks at other instances where you had a 20-day closing high, then an unfilled gap down,…

Big gap down from yesterday’s high.  Below is one way to look at it.

These results were similar to a few scenarios I ran.  The evidence suggests no edge in trying to buy the low open.  In fact there may be a bit of a downside edge fro…

There were a few studies related to VIX action that appeared in the Quantifinder yesterday afternoon. This particular study looks at large mid-week rises in the VIX during times the SPX is closing at a 50-day high. All results are updated.

New rea…

I discussed the QE Buying Power Index a few times in the last week and demonstrated how it could be used as a filter for a mean reversion system. While a good number of people have signed up for the webinar there are many that remain unconvinced of it…

The market was down a little and no one seemed to care.  Volume was extremely light, and the range was the lowest in months.  This kind of indifference can sometimes mean that bulls are done (temporarily).  They pushed prices higher lead…

On Friday I introduced the QE Buying Power Index and showed results over the 2008-2011 period when looking to buy pullbacks with a strong QE Buying Power Index reading versus a weak one. Today I’ll show the other side of the coin. Below is a short-…

A market variable that I rarely see discussed and almost never utilized is Buying Power. And while it has become easily measurable and quantifiable over the last several years, I have found very little information on the concept. In some special web…

Employment days have an interesting history and they have contributed to some worthwhile studies over the years. Below is a chart of SPY performance on Employment Days. For this equity curve I filtered to only include days where SPY was > its 200m…

When breadth posts solid numbers and the SPX declines (during an uptrend) that has often been followed by a rebound in the next few days. The study below triggered at Tuesday’s close. It is one I have shown several times in the Subscriber Letter. …

I’ve shown before that of all days Tuesday has historically shown the highest propensity to halt a short-term pullback. The study below is one from the larger Turnaround Tuesday study. All stats are updated..

As you can see the market has strong…