ETF Prophet

Login
Our Flickr Channel Our Facebook Our RSS Feed follow us on twitter
About Quantifiable Edges:
Quantifiable Edges's Personal Page

Subscribe to my RSS!
Quantifiable Edges utilizes technical analysis concepts and quantifies them in a way that allows traders to determine the edge that was provided in the past. Breadth, volume, sentiment, and price are used to assess market conditions. At Quantifiable Edges we are dedicated to uncovering actual historical advantages.

When VIX Moves From Overbought To Oversold

Posted on August 14th, 2014

After a few strong days you will often find some bearish studies appearing. But the Quantifinder provided no bearish evidence yesterday afternoon. Just the bullish one below. It considers the sharp drop in the VIX over the last couple of days after a sharp rise the previous few. The market condition that would typically accompany …

A Look At Nights Before Fed Days

Posted on July 29th, 2014

Today I will update a little Fed Day related research I last showed in November. Nights before Fed Days have historically been pretty bullish, often leading to a gap higher. But interestingly, this has not held true when the market is already at an intermediate-term high. Below are a couple of studies that demonstrate this. …

A Down Friday After 50-day Highs

Posted on July 25th, 2014

With the market closing down fairly strongly today I thought I would look at other times ES closed down on a Friday after making a 50-day high the day before.  Results are below. The stats appear solidly bearish.  It appears there has often been follow-though over the weekend under these circumstances. I also examined the …

What A Solid VIX Rise Suggests About The Next Few Days

Posted on July 25th, 2014

The study below is from last night’s Quantifinder. New readers may wonder why I use a day-of-week filter with this study. The VIX has a natural tendency to fall on Fridays and rise on Mondays. Because of this I typically separate out those days from the rest of the week when conducting VIX-based studies. This …

Implications of Tuesday’s Poor Close

Posted on June 25th, 2014

Before tanking Tuesday afternoon the SPX managed to make a new intraday all-time high. The new high followed by a poor and downward close triggered the study below, which was shown in the Quantifinder Tuesday afternoon. Results here seem to suggest an upside edge. The edge appears especially strong when looking out 6-8 days.   …

When Fed Days Post Long-Term Highs

Posted on June 19th, 2014

In “The Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days” I discussed Fed Days that close at new highs. The basic finding was that when the market closed at a short-term high on a Fed Day, then it was likely to pull back over the next few days. But when it closed at a long-term high, then …

Extremely Overbought Short-Term Readings Good News For The Bulls

Posted on June 9th, 2014

The market is short-term overbought by a number of measures. One measure that short-term traders will sometimes look at is the 2-period RSI. On Friday the 2-period RSI for SPX close over 99 for the 1st time since February. Very strong moves that put a stock or market in an extremely overbought short-term condition can …

Evaluating A New SPX High & A Rising VIX

Posted on May 28th, 2014

While the SPX closed up fairly strongly on Tuesday, the VIX also rose. Most often they trade opposite each other, so this kind of action is somewhat unusual. But VIX has a tendency to decline going into the weekend (Friday afternoons), and then rise when it returns from the weekend. So to see this action …

Memorial Day Week & The Changing Season

Posted on May 27th, 2014

The week of Memorial Day has shown some seasonal strength over the years. But it has faltered greatly the last few. The chart below examines SPX performance from the Friday before Memorial Day to the Friday after it. There was no substantial edge apparent throughout the 70s, but starting in 1983 through 2010 there was …

“Overnight” Performance over Memorial Day Weekend

Posted on May 23rd, 2014

US-only holidays carry a bit extra risk for overnight traders. This is because the US overnight session lasts through most of 2 days overseas. Often that Monday overseas session is relatively quiet. But that has NOT been the case in recent years with regards to Memorial Day. Below is a look at how SPY has …

Low Volume Bullish Now?

Posted on May 22nd, 2014

Light volume used to be a concern on a short-term basis. But light volume up days simply have not had the same bearish implications during the bull market of the last couple of years. The profit curve below is from an old study. It looks at light volume occurring when the market is above both …

Market Timing Course

Posted on May 14th, 2014

After the first few weeks, the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course  has received an incredible amount of positive feedback.  We also received some helpful feedback from purchasers who wanted to see a few more things.  Therefore, we have added some features to the Quantifiable Edges Market Timing Course and wanted to make readers aware of …

Monday’s Low Volume as a Positive

Posted on May 13th, 2014

One thing I liked about the breakout on Monday was the low volume. Textbooks often refer to this as a negative, but the study below, which I have shown a number of times over the years, shows that for major market breakouts it has actually been a positive This first stats table examines fresh breakouts …

After SPY Stages A Strong Comeback For Marginal Gain

Posted on May 6th, 2014

The study below is one I have shown a few times in the past. It suggests that when SPY closes strong (in the top 10% of its range) but still only manages a small gain on the day, that the next day has a downside tendency. Here is the stats table. As you can see …

What SPY’s Bounce Action Implies

Posted on April 30th, 2014

The studies below appeared in the Quantifinder yesterday and the Gold Subscriber Letter last night. The first one looked at times the SPY bounced up 2 days in a row but still failed to close above the close of 3 days ago. The stats suggest a moderate upside edge over the 1st 2 days. To …

What’s Historically Followed Strong Selloffs

Posted on April 11th, 2014

Strong selloffs to low levels during long-term uptrends often generate favorable buying opportunities. Quantifiable Edges had a number of studies that triggered on Thursday afternoon that exemplified this concept. Below is just one example. It examines 2% drops that close at both the bottom of their daily range and their 10-day range. The 1-2 days …

An Opportunity Missed & A Successful Mindset

Posted on April 10th, 2014

Wednesday saw the market rally strongly, but the overnight Odds suggested a possible short opportunity. Let’s take a look at the Odds Sheet, then I’ll discuss how I handled it, and how it played out. As you can see, ES saw its Averages highlighted in orange. This means that they met the Overnight Edges standard …

Contemplating Weekend Risk…

Posted on March 28th, 2014

“Weekend Risk” that is a term we often hear on tv as an excuse to why the market is selling off going into a weekend. The idea is that with the market closed for 2 days there is more of a risk of “bad” news causing a big gap down. Sometimes we actually see selloffs …