ETF Prophet

Its 180 days since we have a correction of at least 5%.  Bulls are holding on to their positions, even rolling into 1700 June calls and 1800 September calls.   It would take a severe down week close to turn the trend down.  Look for bulls to continue to push before Memorial weekend and large POMO [...]

After closing 3% above the old high, it looks like we could be leaning bullish for the next half year.  Could we have buy May and go away this year?  In the past ten years, houses have doubled while stocks traded in a wide range, could the recent breakout lead to a lot more gains?   [...]

Again the 1600 May call buyers seemed prudent.  On the one hand, we have a couple of breakaway gaps below as that could signal a run to 1650 in the next couple of weeks.  On the other we could have hit a short term high and we could spend the next 1-5 days back and [...]

Early in the week the May 1600 call buyers tipped off a potential run to test the top.  The Boston tragedy was quickly forgotten and it provided another buying opportunity as the market tested the 50 day moving average.  We would probably be at new highs if the bombing did not take place.  Seasonally the next [...]

This is a nice bounce Friday, but will need to see some follow through to sound the all clear signal. It is likely that the market continues to chop around the 50ma level and build a new base. The Boston bombing was unexpected and took the wind out of the bulls.  I have 156.80 SPY [...]

The 1580 call buyers were proven right this week.  With unlimited QE and Japan joining the party, dip buyers are continuing to be rewarded.  S&P 1600 and Dow 15,000 maybe on deck next week.

Despite a lousy jobs number, Korea nuclear threat, China bird flu, and IWM testing the 50 day moving average, the S&P was able to close only twenty points from all time high. On the one hand we have very overbought TLT and there are signs today bond could reverse.

The bulls continue to climb the Cyprus wall of worry as we closed out 1st quarter.  The technical picture looks good with a recent consolidation and breakout to new highs.  With little in the way of resistance other than an overbought condition, markets are free to rise.  Could there be some give back?  There will [...]

Cyprus was quickly forgotten as the FOMC got under way and Ben reaffirmed infinite QE.  The market closed again within a few points of recent high.  We have month end next and bulls still have the wind at their backs.  Apple had gotten going off its bottom and may have $500 insight.  If the Apple [...]

The DJIA finally breaks its longest winning streak in many years, but the market held in remarkably well. The pop and grind market continues as banks and housing continue to recover.  Even lagging APPL broke out of its downtrend line after getting support at the $420 level.  With the FOMC on deck next week,  bulls [...]

This week we saw a breakaway gap to a new month high.  With the bullish March option expiration, POMO, FOMC meeting in the next two weeks, bulls will have sights set on all time high 1570 and then 1600.  Buying 10 point dips intraday may still be the way to go.  That said, we should [...]

Volatility picked up last week and it is a welcome change of pace for traders.  The bears failed to capitalize on a few golden opportunities but that is to be expected after such long run up.  Markets had a tendency to bottom in late February and run up into March.  However, March had often marked [...]

It started a little slow Friday morning as the bears made one attempt at the open to fade the strength.  Volume was light and that seemed to favor the bulls.  In the QE world, the first dip after a long straight up move is often bought and low-volume bounces have a tendency to keep on running. [...]

We had some large ticks when we made our low Friday at SPY 151.5.  While it led to an intraday low, I am wondering if it marks the beginning of a pickup in volatility as the calendar moves into the weaker part of February .  At the same time, we have to keep in mind that [...]

The major indices didn’t make much progress this week but they sure held up extremely well. Volatility took a few brief spikes this week, but all dips are met with eager buyers.  Even lagging Apple is picking up, helping to power the lagging NASDAQ higher.  After 28 days of uptrending and CNBC chanting DOW 14000, [...]

The AFC pulled off an upset in this year’s SuperBowl.  Does that mean we get a 6-8pt intraday pullback soon?  As we have learned since 2009, the low volume and low volatility grind up can last a long time once it gets started.  A strong January is often an auspicious sign for the rest of [...]

The SPX 500 just finished the week above 1500, a mark it had not closed above since 2007, up 7 straight days.  The stochastic is embedded showing a strong trend.  Earnings are decent and like how we started 2012 the market had gone straight up.  With the aid of global and domestic monetary easing, equities are hitting [...]

The market continues to hold up extremely well despite a couple of brief intraday 10 point retraces.  We had gone over two weeks without a 1% pullback into the heart of earnings season and brought back memories of last year.  VIX continues to sag and volatility continuing to deflate.  With a temporary debt ceiling raise [...]