ETF Prophet

Our Flickr Channel Our Facebook Our RSS Feed follow us on twitter
About Mr. Ice:
Mr. Ice's Personal Page

Subscribe to my RSS!
Los Angeles - A free-style trader who is continuing to evolve and learn. I am biased toward mean-reversion trades, but am honing my senses for trending markets. I am a part-time trader with a full-time day job. I also love to hang out in the Market_Rewind Chatroll traders' room and interact with new and different-style traders.

Resistance Ahead

Posted on April 20th, 2014

The S&P 500 continues to lead the action in terms of holding above its 50-day average.  But with the other major indexes still below their respective 50-days, some give back next week after the strong bounce seems reasonable.  Caution is still warranted as we approach the previous resistance area.  While end of April may still [...]

Correction Gains Momentum

Posted on April 14th, 2014

The 2-day bounce in stocks on lower volume was sold hard end of the week.  Friday it feels like we are right back to where we left off on Monday as the selling intensifies.  Many high growth stocks are getting hit hard, as well as biotechs which are down across the board.  Aside from the [...]

Profit Taking Contagion

Posted on April 6th, 2014

Although April started like the uptrend would resume, the pressure that has resurfaced in the NASDAQ and Russell on Friday is much larger compare to recent reversal days.  The rotation into more defensive areas of the stock market could just be initial complacency.  The risk remains that the selloff in the high growth stocks spreads to the [...]

April Bounce?

Posted on March 29th, 2014

The market reversed its early gains and nearly closed on its lows again.  The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are both trading below their 50-day averages.  This increases the chance that the S&P 500 follows suit.  The 50-day support for the SPX is currently around the 1834 level.  That said, the bulls still have a [...]

Turbulent Week

Posted on March 23rd, 2014

Thursday’s selloff was more just a reaction to some confusion about whether the Fed was changing its tune at all or becoming more hawkish.  Bearish sentiment continue to mount after a key reversal day Friday post SPY dividend.  Lots of bear talk about a correction coming now to within 4 weeks is again floating on [...]

Big Week

Posted on March 16th, 2014

With the markets failing at recent high beginning of the week, sentiment had shifted to testing of the 50 day moving average below.  The market continues to trade in narrow ranges and with more bearish evidence.  The large amount of puts recently purchased can lead to more delta hedging if we move lower.  We are [...]

Bull On

Posted on March 8th, 2014

The stair step market continues for almost 2 years now.  More stocks are becoming extended, and becoming difficult to chase that type of price action.  But going against the bull unless in ultra short spurts is next to impossible.  Bulls are still in control and have higher prices in mind, popular target range between 1900 [...]

Ukraine Crisis vs Bull

Posted on March 2nd, 2014

There are certainly some areas of froth in this market, but plenty of stocks and sectors are doing well.  Home construction ETF (ITB) broke out to 7-year highs and the retail etf (XRT) which broke back above its 50-day average are just a few.  Even with the violent drop late Friday due to the Ukraine/Russia [...]

Rocky Start

Posted on February 23rd, 2014

The price action in the market continues to impress.  The S&P 500 is only 10 points away from moving back into positive territory for the year.  If we make new highs, it could also lead to some short covering as those folks who were betting on a bigger decline cover their bets and await a [...]

50 Day Retest Holding

Posted on February 15th, 2014

The bears took two shots at the 50 day moving average middle of the week and both attempt were defended vigorously by the bulls.   S&P 500 opened lower and found support right at its 50-day average.  From there it bounced and worked on putting in a positive reversal day.  Hate to be too bullish after [...]

50 Day Resistance

Posted on February 9th, 2014

The S&P 500 has bounced back to test the 1800 level after a huge down day to start February.  Sentiment quickly shifted from Demark 40% correction to intermediate bottom in.  We still need to see if there is going to be any retest of the recent lows, or if the markets are going to build [...]

Ominous January

Posted on February 1st, 2014

VIX continued to stay near the recent high at the Friday close above the recent down trend line.  The S&P 500 has been probing for support and testing that 1770 level, but it still is trading below its 50-day average and still needs to consolidate the multi-month run-up that just ended a week ago.  DJIA closed [...]

Bearish Reversal

Posted on January 26th, 2014

QQQ and IWM made all time high mid week while SPY and DIA lagged.  Weak China PMI data put the rally on hold and international currency fear further hammered the market.  With the S&P loosing the 50 day, the bearish reversal could be targeting mid to low 1700s.   Ben’s last FOMC meeting next week could [...]

Bullish Consolidation

Posted on January 19th, 2014

The markets bent earlier this week and had a chance to break but didn’t.  Traders who have been waiting for a bigger pullback in the market were forced to sit on the sidelines longer or covering shorts. No one expect the same low volatility stair-step market we saw in 2013, but in the near-term we could [...]

Back to the Flatline

Posted on January 12th, 2014

The stock market again seems to be exhibiting behavior we saw last year when it often worked off its overbought conditions by trading in a sideways fashion rather than the sharp pullbacks a la 2006-2007.  I think a lot of investors were hoping for a pullback early this year to add to equities.  But the [...]

New Year Blue

Posted on January 4th, 2014

Strong finished to 2013 was met with pent-up selling to begin 2014.  We should see normal healthy volume levels return next week as traders come back from vacation.  The market is overbought and due for a pullback.  We are still in a favorable seasonal period for stocks and there is still likely money being reallocated [...]

Thank You Santa, Now Jan Rally?

Posted on December 29th, 2013

Stocks moved lower in early trading Friday as some profit taking set in.  But many investors are likely hesitant to take profits this year with few losses to offset them.  That could make for some delayed profit taking in the early part of the new year.  However, a 10% correction early in the year is [...]

Santa Ben

Posted on December 21st, 2013

 Many traders thought the eventual announcement of a taper might cause more concern among investors. A $10b taper starting in January isn’t a huge amount, and is sending the signal that the economy has improved enough to warrant this type of move.  Reducing QE and tightening are very different.  Interest rates on the part of the Fed [...]