ETF Prophet

The one way market continued today and having the “C” word in the title may appease the stock gods. The S&P 500 has gone down for five straight days and 11 of the last 13 days. The market is too stretched to the downside to support aggressive shorting, but it is showing no signs of [...]

Although the indices weren’t down that much, it was another disappointing day for the bulls. Perhaps too many was anticipating today’s bounce.  When the European Central Bank was rumored to be holding off from using further stimulus tools and more Greek bank problem surface, the sellers took over.  In addition, the FOMC minutes did not [...]

The pattern of early bounce attempt and weak closes continued today. We haven’t had a strong finish since late April, and that is just the opposite of what we saw in the first quarter when we went up daily. We were oversold and ripe for a bounce, but after two brief attempts, Greece and Europe [...]

For the fifth time in the last six days, we gapped lower, bounced back mid morning and then closed weak. The dip-buyers lost interest quickly after upside momentum stalled and we ended up closing near the lows of the day for the first time in a week. Breadth was poor and Greece continues to plague [...]

The market worked very hard to shake off a steady dose of negative news, but there was just too much of it. It was impressive that the market consistently bounced back from weak opens, but there is no upside momentum and the market is barely holding above support. Next week is the much-anticipated Facebook IPO, [...]

After three straight down opens, the market finally managed to start the day in green.  The buyers were simply unable to generate any momentum and the market ended up closing near the lows of the day.  After hours JPM dropped a bombed with a huge unexpected loss, just when bulls were trying to find their [...]

For a third straight day the market opened poorly on Spain and Greece worries and then rallied. Spain has agreed to invest in Bankia, the country’s 4th largest bank; effectively nationalizing it. As with previous attempts, the rally fizzled in the last couple of hours. We still finished solidly in red with a slow grind [...]

The fear returned this morning and the bulls were again breathing a sigh of relief after another test of the Sunday night low. The question to consider is whether today’s intraday reversal can be counted as a market bottom? The fundamental picture hasn’t changed much, but we could be looking at some temporary relief as [...]

After the futures bloodbath last night, the bulls are breathing a sigh of relief. However, it is still a weak oversold bounce that did nothing to reverse the negative technical picture. Volume was light and we closed poorly, but Apple finally managed to bounce a few points. Oil was hit hard and bounced a bit from last night’s [...]

The poor jobs news this morning triggered a run for the exits and the buyers did not want to step in before the French election this weekend. It was the biggest loss of the year on poor breadth and higher volume. We broke the minor support that we had and now the April lows are [...]

Today was the complete reversal from the last couple of days, when the market shrugged off bad news as IWM led on the downside.  The good news is that this poor action helps to lower expectations for the jobs report.  However, consistently disappointing economic news and technical weakness will probably reverse any bounce on the [...]

The indices closed off their early lows, but the ADP jobs number slowed down the bulls.  Apple had dropped 14 out of 16 days stabilized and helped the market.  The news flow and economy doesn’t feel so great, but earnings held in and we have to try not to be too bearish with an accommodating [...]

Positive seasonality kicked in after a soft open and a good ISM number.  We rallied sharply and quickly through mid morning Pacific Time into prior resistance and closed poorly.  Apple giving up its gains intraday also hurt the bulls.  We will have the jobs number Friday and the French election this weekend as potential market [...]

The market was a bit extended coming and we got a needed pullback today.  Merger Monday helped to support the market and the selling was not severe.  Breadth was around 2-to-1 negative and Apple pulled back after a strong post earnings run.  Beginning days of May had a positive bias.  On further weakness we could [...]

There were some excuses for selling today like the lower-than-expected GDP number and the downgrade of Spanish debt.  Instead the bulls focused on the retail sector and good earning report Amazon, Priceline and LinkedIn.  The 50 point bounce since the low has been impressive, and we now have the recent highs back in sight. Some [...]

We had some follow through from yesterday’s strong action. Some profit-taking and consolidation the first hour and buyers stepped in early. Fed chief Ben Bernanke’s comments that quantitative easing was not off the table provided some support for the buyers.  However today’s strong close left us overbought and we are running into resistance at the [...]

Earning from Apple gapped the market up strongly and then a supportive Fed helped us to close at the highs of the day.  With earnings mostly done and Fed back on the sidelines, will the attention shift back to the deteriorating economic numbers or troubles in Europe ? We are also back to the top [...]

In the wake of yesterday’s shakeout, the S&P 500 bottomed at 1358.79 yesterday and had a continuous climb back up.  Bears may have over reached with more selling in the NASDAQ and AAPL dropping 9 out of 10 day s before earning.  Bears may have a hard time tomorrow with a good Apple earning after [...]