The market is back to the recent play book. While social media is littered with top callers, the market continued to be resilient. Mean reversion is dead in long stretches where very shallow intraday pull backs in the morning are bought up by mid day. Call buyers continue to be active and all time high [...]
While the bulls slowed down, they still showed impressive strength after a 220pt+ rally. With Thanksgiving around the corner, more upside is likely.
In line with the V shape recovery from past 2 years, the market continue to defy mean reversion and grind higher. Other than a couple of 10 point drops intraday, every dip is bought furiously. With strong seasonality into year end and international easing, bulls continue to be in charge.
After some back and fill on the FOMC meeting, the SPY took off to test 2014 high on BOJ stimulus. SPX support remains at 1973 with resistance at 2019. We are a bit stretched here and the elections are Tuesday, so I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the market exhibits some profit taking. Hopefully a [...]
The market seemed to have priced in the Ebola scare while earnings mostly held up to lowered expectations. The market closed strongly over SPX 1920, retested the next day and continued into the next resistance level. Will this be the right shoulder or launch point into year end high?
Another down week and we got pretty close to the elusive 10% correction. QE rumor saved the bulls from further damage, but the IWM looks to run out of gas toward the close Friday. Seasonality will again be poor next week and at best the market may put in a choppy range and at worst [...]
With the August low broken and SPY loosing the 200 day, the bears finally took control this week. The large rally was soundly rejected the next day. Huge break down in SMH, IWM hitting new low, QE winding down, Europe sinking, and Ebola outbreak created the perfect storm. Barring any oversold bounces, the bears may [...]
Next 2 week’s up and down will most likely dictate the trend going into end of the year. Bulls stepped up after a retest of the August low with some sentiment indicators hitting extreme. S&P will be testing the break down zone next week and also IWM is forming a possible huge head and shoulders [...]
While the GDP shows the economy is still humming, there was strong appetite for puts as major indices broke down from major support. Volatility also returned in a big way as alternating days of up and down is keeping bulls and bears on their toes. Arguments can still be made for both sides and the [...]
With the break down in IWM, reversal in SPY and the BABA initial public offering, social media is again filled with bearish scenarios. Seasonality dims considerably going into next 2 weeks and there was a pickup in IWM put buying. However with the bearish sentiment pickup, a sideways consolidation or a probe lower and reverse could [...]
Rate worries put a lid on any rallies this week. China deciding not to lower rates and election rumors have the futures below Friday’s low. Next week favors either continued chop with the downside likely targeting around the 50-day moving average at 1971 or more upside. Furthermore, based on the V-shaped bottoms since 2012, the risk/reward favors [...]
SPY and DIA are forming positive cup and handle patterns. NASDAQ is very extended trading well above the recent trend channel, but high betas are leading. After a good run, some back an fill last week seem to refresh the overall market and hint at more upside.
The hallmark of this bull market has been rotation and for this rally to continue we could see more of that next week. V shaped rally and the most recent shallow pull-back hints the market has more upside to come. While beginning of September is strong, seasonality tapers off into mid September where crash articles often [...]
Fed Chief’s Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole was well anticipated and the indices barely moved on the news of how the labor market is influencing potential interest rate hikes. The market had a minor “sell the news” reaction to the speech as it was technically ripe for some profit-taking. Further weakness next week to [...]
After a furious bounce last week, the market may stall and pull-back next week. It will be important for it to hold the 1930 level. A breach of 1930 would then increase the chance that the market bottom was not made on August 2nd and the odds of a visit to the 200-day moving average [...]
190 support on SPY held despite continuous global unrest news hitting the tape. We finished the week where we started going into option expiration. If markets are able to close green Monday, the bulls have a better shot going forward. The typical pattern had been a bounce followed by a shallower retest before going up further. [...]
News events and IWM breaking down finally pull down the overall market. We are pretty oversold for a bounce even though the correction in large caps and technology stocks maybe just starting to peak heading into the summer. A retest of the 1970 break down area or the 50ema at 1945 could be in the [...]
IWM currently holding on to its 200 day MA at 113.52. Below there it will be important for the recent low of 112.20 to hold. Getting and staying above 114 would be a good first step to a possible recovery back to highs. GDP/FOMC/NFP are all slated next week and could provide a large moving range [...]