ETF Prophet

This is an expanded performance table comparing the incremental moves in Mosaic, Mosaic RM and SPY over the past 12 weeks.  As noted previously Mosaic is engineered to move like a turtle, not a rabbit.  Mosaic also uses no chart analysis. The values in the last 3 columns represent the total gains (1.45 = 145%) [...]

Mosaic Blue details are flushed out a bit more in this week’s update.  Note the portfolio components.  The precise allocation of capital to each position depends on our risk comfort level and this example reflects a balance of commodities, tech and bonds. Similar results can be achieved applying other sector proxies but the robustness of [...]

  This is a new direction for the Mosaic Project that takes market neutral engineering and skews the portfolio components and position sizing to create an upward sloping equity curve.  This positive bias gives the model an increased edge to outperform the SPY and further limits downside risk.  Mosaic Blue requires considerably less option strategizing, [...]

This is a graphic comparison of SPY versus Mosaic versus LT6 (a Mosaic model skewed to the upside). LT6 has a built-in equity curve signal line (MOM21) that determines when to increase or decrease net position size.  Keep in mind that these are NOT rotation models.  The components of LT6 and Mosaic are the same [...]

This is the other side of the Mosaic equation…the hedging ETFs.  Keep in mind that our goal is to create a market neutral position and then collect premium decay and any possible price appreciation while at the same time limiting our downside risk.  Note that VIX is included in our hedging portfolio.  This ETF is [...]

We’re getting some mixed signals on GDX and with the TrendX Z signal reversing to the upside this morning so we closed the open Short position for a modest $98 gain. It’s unusual to see this signal reverse before hitting the lower support line but HEY!, surprises are the name of the game in this [...]

If this looks a lot like the Lazy Man metrics dashboard, that’s because it is.  What I’m trying to do is determine which of my target ETFs display the greatest momentum, strength of trend and relative strength.  I’ve built all the metrics in Worden Bros. Telechart 2011, the mothership of FreeStockCharts.  I can do more [...]

Just thought I’d mention the XLF situation according to the TrendX, which uses 3 different signal triggers to generate a consensus signal.(see Mosaic post on Tuesday for more details).   We’ll be talking about what these indicators are really showing over the next couple weeks, but astute readers will note the TLT line at the bottom [...]

Here’s today’s mid day update on GDX.  We’ve actually picked up a couple percentage points on the performance side since the last update and, following a short entry 2 days ago, we’re $58 ahead on each 100 share position.  It’s Friday with an extended weekend ahead so I’m not expecting a green surge into the [...]

This is week 2 of the Mosaic series.  Above is a price comparison of last week’s basket of ETFs and the Mosaic model over 5 years.  As mentioned, my goal is the maintenance of a linear equity curve and the difference between the 6 major market components and the model is quickly evident.  Mosaic derives [...]

The above nugget in Reuter’s today highlights the uncertainty that traders face in 2012.  These are (supposedly) some of the brightest guys in the room and they’re reduced to head scratching.  Hopefully the Prophet will do better than 48% correct… the percentage of success tracked by CXO of the “top” 60 market gurus…. roughly the same [...]

For 2012 I’m introducing a new trading paradigm.  I call it Mosaic and it reflects the results of a project I’ve been working on for over a year. Mosaic is a risk management model that seeks to minimize drawdown while at the same time producing a consistent and essentially linear equity curve.  Above are the [...]

Here’s the scene as of 1 hour into Friday.  It’s been a rough ride for GDX lately but yesterday’s action initiated a BUY signal at the open for a nice pop.   The GDX signal is actually a bit divergent and a cross back over the zero line will be our first exit trigger. Today we’re [...]

The TrendX signaled a short cover at Thursday’s close and a BUY at today’s open.  Interestingly, Thursday’s closing price on GDX was the same as today’s open, with Friday providing some possible early entry momentum. The larger markets are clearly at major support levels and despite media hype the technical picture doesn’t look all that [...]

Here’s the current (Monday ..90 minutes in) TrendX view of GDX.  While we were tempted to cover our short position on Friday we stuck with it after much hand wringing and our faith was rewarded this morning.  Notice the reversed position of the pc (yellow) signal line, it now aligns with price action (previously an [...]

For those that still believe in the power of technical analysis the TrendX suite is just about ready.  We now have a combination of 3 indicators and 2 strategies that work in sync in provide trading signals on a small basket of ETFs that can be traded as equities or options. Positions are never held [...]