ETF Prophet

The Mosaic rotating commodity based model has seen impressive results lately. Most of the short term returns have been a product of  UNG gains but a quick look at the component charts shows good momentum in XLU as well…so a top 2 sort also produces nice returns. By avoiding the equity/bond skew using commodities we [...]

One of the fun ways I spend my time is reviewing the FED’s buying policy.  It’s easy to track and the schedule is updated every month automatically. Over on the Mosaic site I posted a simple system earlier in the week that’s worked out pretty well so far this year and doesn’t require a lot [...]

Here’s why Chinese business will always produce goods cheaper than the US.  You’ll have to endure the 10 second intro (in Chinese) but the wait is well worth it. Here’s the T6 bull model update.  You might expect IWM or QQQ to be top ranked but XLU’s actually what’s making new money right now as [...]

The last day of February and one day before the debt ceiling deadline.  But no one seems too concerned about it.  Somehow these crises have always proved to be only a temporary fly in the ointment in the past and the market response to this issue has been to simply ignore it. The folks at [...]

Here’s an update of the “simple”  Mosaic T6 portfolio mentioned previously in these posts.  There’s no bear component in this mix save for a bit of safety in XLU (Utilities). This is a bull market portfolio and, as we shall see, it may be time to cut our position size or CASH outright.  Short term [...]

An interesting interview with Kyle Bass this morning on CNBC in which he noted that the technical long/short correlation of stocks and bonds has fallen apart and continues to deteriorate.  The practical implication for investors is that the search for superior portfolio components needs to be rethought to include different asset groups that are more [...]

For those seeking to delve into stock models using the T2 approach here are 2 sample portfolios that are now part of the MOSAIC stable. The first, SA, is based on the previously posted Mosaic / Seeking Alpha model and is based on their considerable research and experience.The second, WS, is based on a Reuters [...]

Today’s news centers on the VIX rising above 20 for the first time since July 23.  This is a weekly chart with a few of my favorite technical indicators.  For active traders the 2 SMA8 lines on the chart are of the high and the low…creating a support resistance channel that is amazingly reliable fro [...]

Full text and graphics for this article can be found here. Our goal is to utilize the Mosaic T2 momentum model to detect pockets of opportunity with the S&P morass. These are typically short term rotational moves although there are multiple instances when a sector has dominated the others for extended periods of time –sometimes [...]

  I haven’t posted to the Prophet for a while as most of my efforts have been focused on the Mosaic site.  FYI..here’s an update to the T2 model that just invests in the top 2 momentum ranked ETFs from a basket of 11 sector ETFs.  We use an RSQ (linear regression) stop to further [...]

OK,,,so this was just a little glitch…nothing to see here folks…just keep on moving. Looking at the bigger picture,  Mark Hulbert thinks its time to hunker down, while Ken Fisher thinks the markets are only half way to a new topping out.  Hey! go figure.  Regardless of what happens be assured that there is a [...]

Just a quick look at what’s going on over on the Mosaic SITUATIONS.  We track the major sectors ETFs  of the market each day and rank their relative strength and momentum to derive short term trading opportunities while simultaneously building an equity curve of the top 2 or top 3 daily ranked ETFs. The colorized [...]

We’re in the midst of a mid day reversal pattern as equities appear to be losing their mojo.  TLT has actually gone positiver for the day after an early smack down.  Materials are the hot sector today…both gold and oil were roaring early on but have cooled considerably.  The NYSE advance/decline line (NYAD) started to [...]

We’re seeing some gains in 2o year bonds via TLT but is this a recovery or a pause before a larger correction?  Here’s one view. Back at the hourly chart of the new market neutral index QQQ is still holding top slot driven almost entirely by APPLE.  In fact, 80 of the NAZ100 are in [...]

My little market neutral index portfolio illustrates the crumbing VIX (shaded background chart) relative to the larger market.  TLT did make a bullish spurt out of the open and the afternoon saw it resume a downtrend in sympathy with the VIX.  Apple was the catalyst for the QQQs as peer the past few days and [...]

It looked like there might be a break out to the upside today but volume never picked up and the stalwarts refused to yield more than a modest gain.  There are winners within this market malaise, which can be detected by looking at a ranking of relative strength and momentum among the the various market [...]

Following on the heels of VIX’s sub 14 close, the always puzzling VIX rose 7% even as the SPY, DIA and QQQ also rose in unison. The hourly chart of the VIX (shaded background) tells it all.  TLT has dropped over 1.25% today and the low volume plod to new highs goes on. Qs are [...]

OK trader buddies…I bet this is something you didn’t think would happen so soon after the Euro, Italian, Spanish, etc crises.  VIX slid below 14 briefly today and what’s coming next could be a big move.  Volume today is REALLY thin, about 35% normal and old time market watchers like myself are having a hard [...]