ETF Prophet

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Oceanside - After 25 years of trading, I'm still exploring market dynamics. I daytrade and swingtrade using ETFs and options and sell premium decay longer term using NYAD, VIX & MAs combined with pivots and PSAR triggers. These posts reflect my humble research and are not solicitations to trade.

Holding Pattern…8.28.14

Posted on August 28th, 2014

Another narrow range day with low volume.  Although it was a red day the losses were modest. XIV did suffer a bit of a decline so the STOP that fired yesterday did catch the change of pulse.

SPY / UPRO Pair as a Market Indicator

Posted on August 18th, 2014

UPRO is the 3X SPY ultra bull ETF and many traders believe there is a simple leveraged advantage in trading UPRO in lieu of SPY….(assuming the direction of the markets is forecast correctly).In fact, the relationship between SPY and UPRO is neither l…

Trend Continues… 8.17.13

Posted on August 17th, 2014

Looking at the end of day results you can’t appreciate the complete reversal the market made throughout Friday’s session with a couple false starts along the way. For a while all the indices were deep in the red with prospects looking grim.  Then,…

Closing M3 Signal… 8.1.14

Posted on August 1st, 2014

Here’s today’s M3 closing signal as of 12:45 PST. We got the expected drop and pop and and we’re back in the drop mode for the weekend. After an impressive rally at the open XIV has crumbled once again and is down almost 5% into the close.You can check…

Leadership Lag……7.21.14

Posted on July 21st, 2014

In response to a reader query on my contention that SPY is generally  lagging the other indices here’s a little study of SPY, DIA and QQQ using M3 to look at leadership momentum and it’s clear that SPY has been the recent laggard. Using the M3 ran…

XIV Premium

Posted on July 14th, 2014

Monday and the bulls are off to the races. VIX is down 4% and the indices are destined to close in the green despite worsening conditions in the middle east. ¬†What, me worry? is the mantra carrying us along to the inevitable SPY 200 payday. Here’s a look at what I’ll call the XIV premium [...]

Momentum Stalls… 7.2.14

Posted on July 2nd, 2014

Momentum fizzled with evident choppiness and volume waned but VIX dropped into the red even further to retrace recent lows and XIV hit another new high.It was a mixed bag for stocks and once again we saw marginal weakness into the close.Thursday is a s…

Teeter-Totter Continues… 6.25.14

Posted on June 25th, 2014

The XIV was back to its close 2 days ago while the VIX was marginally lower.  This market just doesn’t want to go down even in the face of weak economic news and we may be seeing another leg grinding up to the July 4th holiday.  For now its o…

New VIX Low, New XIV High… 6.19.14

Posted on June 19th, 2014

Intra day saw new VIX lows and new XIV highs accompanied by big pops in gold and silver and, not surprisingly, XLE went over the 100 mark today as the IRAQ oil field situation has oil traders betting on the long side.Given the extremely low VIX its bec…

Happy in Cash…6.12.14

Posted on June 12th, 2014

A timely switch in yesterday’s M3′s ranking to cash kept us out of today’s carnage.Rather amazingly SPY has gone from an RSI2 reading of 100 to 7.5 in 2 days!!!That’s a dramatic change of relative strength.Weak retail sales reports, increased jobless c…

World Bank Speaks… 6.11.14

Posted on June 11th, 2014

My friends over at the World Bank must have been feeling sorry for me and the conflicted M3 signals so they cut their outlook for he global economy, now projecting 2.8% growth in lieu of the previous forecast of 3.2%.  US growth projections were a…

What? Me Worry?… 6.5.14

Posted on June 5th, 2014

Wall of worry?  Not today.  New index highs all around and modestly improved volume although the effect of short covering may have contributed to some of the golden glow.  Once again XIV blasted off like a missile and booked some impress…

Friday Pre-Close ALERT…. 5.30.14

Posted on May 30th, 2014

The real time M3 SPY Trader has given XIV a neutral reading for the first time in 2 weeks.  As of the close today M3 with a #1 ranking has gone to cash.Coupled with recent abnormal acceleration in XIV versus SPY the argument can be made that from …

XIV Pause… 5.28.14

Posted on May 28th, 2014

The markets closed in the red today but only modestly so.  As we approach the end of the month cusp this may simply be a setup for the usual bullish pop. There was a slight change of leadership as XLU surged and XLF faltered.   The markets we…

XIV at New High… 5.22.14

Posted on May 22nd, 2014

I’ll be on the road today to no post tonight…but early action in XIV has provided an opportunity to compare the weekly long term chart of XIV versus VXX (presumably its inverse).  Both are ETNs, so derivatives of futures and options and back &nb…

Bad to Worse to Better…. 5.15.14

Posted on May 15th, 2014

An ugly start to the day that only got worse with Walmart’s sad earnings report and a weak home building market at least partially responsible (recall previous post on shorting the home builders by Gundlach).The good news is that the afternoon saw a de…

Bull Run Prospects & SPY / Currency Pairs project…… 5.13.14

Posted on May 13th, 2014

Note how the short term indicator (blue line) in the SPY TrendX right side panel has turned upslope (it was downslope yesterday.  BUT..also note that the TrendX is now at upper level resistance so our expectation is for a momentum slowdown or reve…

SPY Negative Outflow for the Year… 5.8.14

Posted on May 8th, 2014

If you don’t know about Dr. Brett Steenbarger you should put him on your daily check list. Here’s a guy who was advisor to one of the largest global hedge funds and his insights on trader behavior and trading setups can only improve your trading skills…