ETF Prophet

Blue-lined markup comparison of the April versus March Federal Open Market Committee/ FOMC statements below: Labor & Spending Improving/ Housing Depressed Inflation Increased Continued Accommodative Stance Low Rates Expected to Late 2014 No Specific Mention of “QE3″ Global Strains Remain Single Hawkish Dissent Don’t forget the first reaction is often a fade, but price can [...]

Semi’s aren’t helping either. Internals are still looking good, but showing signs of strain. Then again, one had to be looking for resistance at SPY $137.75, and it’s not too late in the day for equities to catch a second wind above the VWAP — meanwhile, watch that falling AAPL.

The AD and Cumulative Tick lines are attempting to repair opening damage. I’m watching those trends and how the SPY handles potential opening print resistance to get a gauge on the PM session.

Two weeks ago my first “Sensitive Issues Scoring” model based on relative positioning of and among nine economically sensitive ETFs issued a first warning for equities. Last week, a fuller, more robust version driven by fifteen intermarket sector, style and country ETFs weighted for importance joined the party with its own warning signal as trading [...]

Two of my long-term risk models are now signaling market transition warnings for the weeks ahead — more on this in a follow-on post tomorrow (link). Meanwhile, for a week that sure “felt” volatile, looking back I still find it surprising that nearly all sectors, with the notable exception of the Apple (AAPL) driven Technology [...]

Internals are fairly negative, but pricing is thus far holding support above the Pivot for the SPY, and the rising five-day moving average for the QQQ.

Finally — it was really looking like things could go either way yesterday. Of course, that’s always the case, but you know what I mean! I estimate SPY resistance cleared up through $139.30 or so, plus or minus. Internals look very supportive for a PM session continuation, although the QQQ is in rarified 2% gains [...]

Last fall I spoke at an active money management conference, where I introduced about a half-a-dozen or more weekly inter-market ETF models designed to measure “risk acceptance” in equities. The subject of this post features one of the more basic models, which was partially inspired by the highly recommended “The Lawyer Trader” blog.

The SPY has turned green for the day, while Apple continues to weigh down Tech. Internals have been mostly in a range-day mode until the last half hour or so, which has taken on a more bullish tone. The SPY is just now up against potential strong resistance at the falling 5-dma + pivot.

Lest we get too excited by the last several weeks JUST YET….  However, there have been some early warning signs this week that I’ll post about before the weekend is through.  [LINK] Note:  Blue is the SPY HV(100), Orange is the 20-DMA.

For the last several weeks we had been hypothesizing a pullback, and here it is. For the week, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell back another -1.9%. However, the VIX is increasingly stretched from its mean, which may better support a bounce in the week ahead even though price is not yet fully oversold. [Week 16 [...]

Looks like Chinese GDP wasn’t greeted well. The S&P is finding a base of support chart-wise around S1. I emphasize “chart-wise” because so far the internals just aren’t backing that up, and I’m a bit concerned about p.m. continuation to the downside. Either way, it’s a divergence to watch because it must resolve soon. Maybe [...]

When the market rallies on bad news, it’s strong right? Well, the Fed and Europe did reiterate their dovish stance. From SPY $138.50 to 139.50 I expect increasing potential resistance.

Price is putting in a near-term “capitulation-like” move to the downside, stretching a variety of oversold metrics to extremes in the process of breaking the 50-dma.  I’d like to buy in at some point, but am waiting for relative volume (see rising dashed white line) to come out of the move indicating a better potential [...]

We got our large jobs gap.  Note on the daily-bar chart how price slightly undercut channel support.  However, price appears to be holding the opening lows and the VIX is gradually coming back in.  Recent intra-day downside continuation odds are high, but don’t forget those largely include the Fall volatility event.  Also note this interesting [...]