ETF Prophet

It’s just another line in the sand on a chart, but it’s so widely followed it should start to get folks’ attention. The real question, is whether it will be used as a buy point, or a major risk-off signal for institutional money. It seems news flow will drive the day. On one hand I’m [...]

The market is looking for support to bounce, but is still struggling and range-bound on the day. My primary concern going into the p.m. session is the sudden rise in inter-security cross-correlations. Watch that ICJ index closely.

SPY Price held its first test where we’d hope it would near $134 and is trying to recover for a challenge of S1 from below.  That will be an important level this p.m.  Internals are still awful, of course, but volatility appears to be leveling.

Equities tried and failed to hold support last week, but neither has a capitulative event occurred. It still ‘feels’ like price is on the edge — at once oversold, yet not broadly so and more negative news flow could easily hurtle us towards those as yet rising 200-day moving averages. For the week, the S&P [...]

This is always a good sign — not easy to shake off the blues in the Financials, so it will be important to see how the SPY acts here at its daily VWAP. I have been traveling this week and it’s good to be back gang!

After hours the SPY has fallen to $136.50, roughly the mid-point of the prior 4/23 lows bar.

Talk about a reversal of fortune — last week we identified early overbought conditions, only to finish the first week of May broadly oversold on strong downward reversion momentum. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY) was lower for the week by -2.4%, leaving price just a dollar or so above monthly support. In that last [...]

The 4/25 gap has been swallowed up on the poor jobs report and money coming off the table ahead of european elections. Volume is a bit higher than normal, but only just so. I expect SPY support between here and $136.90. The VIX is reeling in, so there may be some evidence of that taking [...]

Remember this free ETF Prophet tool? It can be found under the menus above. Note, however, a significant supportive volume spike is registering here at key levels.

Yesterday’s lows are holding as key support thus far, but internals aren’t looking very supportive so we’ll see.

Weak internals are holding back the S&P 500, although the NASDAQ 100 has been able to fill the gap. Even small-caps are close. Before this morning’s news I was looking for a more positive bias — I’ll be watching the VWAP closely into the second half of trade.

Price is testing monthly resistance levels just now. Cumulative Tick and the Advance Decline lines are slightly negative accordingly — I’m keeping a close eye on those and raising stops. Never Investing Advice

SPY is attempting to establish support, but it’s struggling to do so beneath the VWAP and lower lows would not surprise with internals like this.  On the other hand, volatility (bold grey line), while elevated as compared to Friday, is ruler flat.  I expect SPY support ultimately resides in the low $139 range if we [...]

April brought the first real bump in volatility for the year. However, last week equities put in a steady incline, closing up nicely on the week for roughly a breakeven monthly performance. In fact, nearly all asset classes performed well last week, with the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by +1.8%. The caveat being (isn’t there [...]

Major resistance has been broken and price has been in an uptrend since the Apple results and Amazon is pushing the QQQs higher still. Prior highs as the next target? A little consolidation would be healthier, I suspect. Speaking of which, the SPY is doing so just now right below R1. We otherwise have range [...]

The SPY is literally up against range resistance just under $139.50. I think it could still go further, say to .8 — at which point price will be entering early (in time) overbought territory. Otherwise, internals remain suggestive of range bound trade.