ETF Prophet

My schedule does not allow me to post the overview this morning. A more regular schedule will begin in the New Year. Below is a snapshot of Friday’s Odds Sheet. I let my intentions be known well ahead of time that I did not intend to trade over the weekend with the highly anticipated political …

Below is a summary of the research discussed since out last research summary a few weeks ago. All stats are updated to present day. The research is designed to prepare traders for the upcoming overnight session. I feature research several times per week in the Overnight Overview. The Overview can be seen on the blog. …

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. Click Twice to Enlarge — NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

Last year in the 12/30/11 blog I showed that while the last day of the year used to be a bullish day for the market, that tendency has reversed this century. Below is an updated equity curve for the NASDAQ Composite on the last day of the year.

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Washington gridlock had postponed Santa’s visit.  Additional selling hit after hours and now we are testing the mini premarket flash crash area at ES 1391-1392, dropping 4.7% in 7 trading days.  We are definitely oversold and due a bounce but any wrong news this weekend could send us to restest the 1340 ES low last [...]

Today’s news centers on the VIX rising above 20 for the first time since July 23.  This is a weekly chart with a few of my favorite technical indicators.  For active traders the 2 SMA8 lines on the chart are of the high and the low…creating a support resistance channel that is amazingly reliable fro [...]

On the Quantifiable Edges blog today I looked at other instances where the VIX closed at a 100-day high, but SPX did not close at a 100-day low. Essentially I am looking at times where worry (and options premium) is running high but it is not due to the market making long-term lows. Results were …

I review Monday’s Odds, discuss why I took a trade, and show how it worked out. I am still in vacation mode, so no new research today. Perhaps tomorrow. If not, research will return next week.   New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Economic reports have been bringing holiday cheer to an empty table that remains concerned with the ‘fiscal cliff’. There are otherwise good seasonal and short-term quantitative odds for a bounce during tomorrow’s shortened session. That said, Sunday evening futures are once again looking a bit deadly, setting up markets for a major gap lower tomorrow [...]

Although the fiscal battle is causing some uncertainty, the market is continuing to act like it’s confident the issue will be resolved.  The 50 point mini crash pre-market was bought but we have to keep in mind that the low at 1392 ES may get retested in the coming days.  Adding to the confusion the [...]

Thursday’s close marked the beginning of the next seasonally strong period.  The study below is the “Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas” study, and I have shown it each year on the blog.  Results are updated.

The stats all appear qui…

A look at last night’s odds, yesterday’s action, and a study that nicely exemplifies why profit curves are so important.   New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

A review of yesterday’s odds, what led me to take a trade, how it worked out, and a pattern that would trigger tonight on a higher close.   New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Full text and graphics for this article can be found here. Our goal is to utilize the Mosaic T2 momentum model to detect pockets of opportunity with the S&P morass. These are typically short term rotational moves although there are multiple instances when a sector has dominated the others for extended periods of time –sometimes [...]

Over several time horizons op-ex week in December has been the most bullish week of the year for the SPX.  The positive seasonality actually has persisted for up to 3 weeks.  I showed this last year in the 12/12/11 blog.  I’ve updated…

As we draw closer to year end, December option expiration weeks are often bullish.  We are also hitting a 6 day low and oversold.  While I believe the fiscal cliff resolution is likely, portfolio insurance is still very cheap into year end.  Portfolio managers that are ahead are probably market neutral trying not to give [...]

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. Click Twice to Enlarge — NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE