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Quick Overnight Overview for 12/31

Posted by on December 31st, 2012

My schedule does not allow me to post the overview this morning. A more regular schedule will begin in the New Year. Below is a snapshot of Friday’s Odds Sheet. I let my intentions be known well ahead of time that I did not intend to trade over the weekend with the highly anticipated political …

Overnight Research Summary

Posted by on December 30th, 2012

Below is a summary of the research discussed since out last research summary a few weeks ago. All stats are updated to present day. The research is designed to prepare traders for the upcoming overnight session. I feature research several times per week in the Overnight Overview. The Overview can be seen on the blog. …

ETF Rewind – Broadly Oversold | Week 52 | 12.28.12

Posted by on December 30th, 2012

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. Click Twice to Enlarge — NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

Incredible Story of the Last Day of the Year

Posted by on December 29th, 2012

Last year in the 12/30/11 blog I showed that while the last day of the year used to be a bullish day for the market, that tendency has reversed this century. Below is an updated equity curve for the NASDAQ Composite on the last day of the year.

Deal or No Deal

Posted by on December 29th, 2012

Washington gridlock had postponed Santa’s visit.  Additional selling hit after hours and now we are testing the mini premarket flash crash area at ES 1391-1392, dropping 4.7% in 7 trading days.  We are definitely oversold and due a bounce but any wrong news this weekend could send us to restest the 1340 ES low last [...]

VIX > 20 Now What?

Posted by on December 27th, 2012

Today’s news centers on the VIX rising above 20 for the first time since July 23.  This is a weekly chart with a few of my favorite technical indicators.  For active traders the 2 SMA8 lines on the chart are of the high and the low…creating a support resistance channel that is amazingly reliable fro [...]

What 100-day Highs In The VIX Could Imply

Posted by on December 27th, 2012

On the Quantifiable Edges blog today I looked at other instances where the VIX closed at a 100-day high, but SPX did not close at a 100-day low. Essentially I am looking at times where worry (and options premium) is running high but it is not due to the market making long-term lows. Results were …

A Nice Overnight Trade

Posted by on December 26th, 2012

I review Monday’s Odds, discuss why I took a trade, and show how it worked out. I am still in vacation mode, so no new research today. Perhaps tomorrow. If not, research will return next week.   New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Merry Merry from Market Rewind

Posted by on December 24th, 2012

ETF Rewind – Cliff Hampering Progress | Week 51 | 12.21.12

Posted by on December 23rd, 2012

Economic reports have been bringing holiday cheer to an empty table that remains concerned with the ‘fiscal cliff’. There are otherwise good seasonal and short-term quantitative odds for a bounce during tomorrow’s shortened session. That said, Sunday evening futures are once again looking a bit deadly, setting up markets for a major gap lower tomorrow [...]

Santa Claus Coming to Town

Posted by on December 23rd, 2012

Although the fiscal battle is causing some uncertainty, the market is continuing to act like it’s confident the issue will be resolved.  The 50 point mini crash pre-market was bought but we have to keep in mind that the low at 1392 ES may get retested in the coming days.  Adding to the confusion the [...]

Twas Three Nights Before Christmas

Posted by on December 21st, 2012

Thursday’s close marked the beginning of the next seasonally strong period.  The study below is the “Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas” study, and I have shown it each year on the blog.  Results are updated.

The stats all appear qui…

Overnight Overview & Why Profit Curves Are Important

Posted by on December 20th, 2012

A look at last night’s odds, yesterday’s action, and a study that nicely exemplifies why profit curves are so important.   New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Overnight Overview, A Trade, & Why A Close Higher Today Could Be Bearish

Posted by on December 19th, 2012

A review of yesterday’s odds, what led me to take a trade, how it worked out, and a pattern that would trigger tonight on a higher close.   New to the Odds Sheets? Check out this video for a detailed explanation.

Deconstructing the S&P with the SPYDERS

Posted by on December 17th, 2012

Full text and graphics for this article can be found here. Our goal is to utilize the Mosaic T2 momentum model to detect pockets of opportunity with the S&P morass. These are typically short term rotational moves although there are multiple instances when a sector has dominated the others for extended periods of time –sometimes [...]

The Most Wonderful Week

Posted by on December 17th, 2012

Over several time horizons op-ex week in December has been the most bullish week of the year for the SPX.  The positive seasonality actually has persisted for up to 3 weeks.  I showed this last year in the 12/12/11 blog.  I’ve updated…

December Option Expiration

Posted by on December 16th, 2012

As we draw closer to year end, December option expiration weeks are often bullish.  We are also hitting a 6 day low and oversold.  While I believe the fiscal cliff resolution is likely, portfolio insurance is still very cheap into year end.  Portfolio managers that are ahead are probably market neutral trying not to give [...]

ETF Rewind – Europe vs US | Week 50 | 12.14.12

Posted by on December 15th, 2012

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. Click Twice to Enlarge — NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

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