ETF Prophet

A review of yesterday’s Odds, last night’s action, and some research showing a long-term tendency if ES closes up at least 2 points today.

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A review of Friday’s Odds, last night’s action, why I took a trade, how it worked out, and a setup that could trigger for tonight.

Friday was the 2nd 90% Up Volume day within 5 days.  In the past this has been a bullish indication for the intermediate-term.  Below is an updated results table from the 10/11/11 Subscriber Letter study that showed this.

While the mark…

A furious mean reversion bounce took place this week with AAPL and beaten down tech leaders bouncing strongly.  We are close to the 200 day moving average at 142.7 SPY and many have resistance right where we closed on Friday.  A move to test the 200 day would not surprise, but at some point we [...]

Thanksgiving has typically shown some pretty consistent seasonality.  Both the Wednesday before and the Friday after have exhibited bullish tendencies while the Monday after has been slightly bearish.  A couple of years ago I showed a table b…

A review of yesterday’s Odds, last nights action, and a seasonal study that has been impacted by the long-term trend.

A review of Friday’s Odds, last night’s action and a possible bearish indication for tonight.

I’ve written an awful lot about the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) here on the blog.  The CBI moved up from 9 to 11 on Friday.  Many readers are aware that a reading of 10 or higher has been a strong short-term bul…

Below is a summary of the research discussed this past week in the 2-minute Overnight Overviews. All stats are updated to present day. The research is designed to prepare traders for the upcoming overnight session. I feature research several times per week in the Overnight Overview. The Overview can be seen on the blog. Traders …

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We could be setting up a mean reversion bounce in the next 7-9 days as we hammer out a temporary low and in the process of forming a higher low.  Get ready to trade both ways!  There should be plenty of opportunities intraday.  A great opportunity Friday, as we probed lower on very oversold conditions.  I am also [...]

I am in Las Vegas today attending the Traders Expo where I will be speaking on Saturday (and focusing on overnight trading). The 2-minute videos will return next week. But I will post a quick look at the Odds Sheet and review of my trading decisions each day. Below is the Odds Sheet from Thursday afternoon.   …

Where the market closes within its daily range can be an indicator of sentiment.  Over the years I have shown studies indicating persistent closes in one direction often lead to a reversion. An example of overly-optimistic closes was shown in the…

A review of yesterday’s Odds, last night’s action, and a look at overnights following 40-day low closes below the 200ma.

Bad breadth on an up day is something that has been shown to lead to bearish inclinations in the past.  On Monday, according to my data provider, the SPX closed up while the NYSE Up Volume % came in at 44.7%.  This triggered the below s…

Veterans Day is one of the few US holidays when the bond market is closed and the stock market is open. Columbus Day is another. But while Columbus Day has exhibited some quantifiable edges, Veterans Day has not.  (At least none that I have ident…

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