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You Are Browsing the November 2012 Archive:

Overnight Overview & A Tendency Overnight To Be Aware Of

Posted by on November 27th, 2012

A review of yesterday’s Odds, last night’s action, and some research showing a long-term tendency if ES closes up at least 2 points today.

ETF Rewind – And The Rip… | Week 47 | 11.23.12

Posted by on November 26th, 2012

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. Click Twice to Enlarge — NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

What Led Me to Take a Short Trade at Friday’s Close

Posted by on November 26th, 2012

A review of Friday’s Odds, last night’s action, why I took a trade, how it worked out, and a setup that could trigger for tonight.

An Intermediate-Term Breadth Signal

Posted by on November 26th, 2012

Friday was the 2nd 90% Up Volume day within 5 days.  In the past this has been a bullish indication for the intermediate-term.  Below is an updated results table from the 10/11/11 Subscriber Letter study that showed this.

While the mark…

Happy Holidays

Posted by on November 24th, 2012

A furious mean reversion bounce took place this week with AAPL and beaten down tech leaders bouncing strongly.  We are close to the 200 day moving average at 142.7 SPY and many have resistance right where we closed on Friday.  A move to test the 200 day would not surprise, but at some point we [...]

A Long-Term Look At Wednesday Before Thanksgiving

Posted by on November 21st, 2012

Thanksgiving has typically shown some pretty consistent seasonality.  Both the Wednesday before and the Friday after have exhibited bullish tendencies while the Monday after has been slightly bearish.  A couple of years ago I showed a table b…

Tuesday Night Before Thanksgiving in Uptrends vs Downtrends

Posted by on November 20th, 2012

A review of yesterday’s Odds, last nights action, and a seasonal study that has been impacted by the long-term trend.

A Possbile Bearish Overnight Indication for Tonight

Posted by on November 19th, 2012

A review of Friday’s Odds, last night’s action and a possible bearish indication for tonight.

Intermediate-term Implications of the CBI Hitting 11

Posted by on November 19th, 2012

I’ve written an awful lot about the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI) here on the blog.  The CBI moved up from 9 to 11 on Friday.  Many readers are aware that a reading of 10 or higher has been a strong short-term bul…

Research Summary for 11/12 – 11/16

Posted by on November 19th, 2012

Below is a summary of the research discussed this past week in the 2-minute Overnight Overviews. All stats are updated to present day. The research is designed to prepare traders for the upcoming overnight session. I feature research several times per week in the Overnight Overview. The Overview can be seen on the blog. Traders …

ETF Rewind – Correction Territory | Week 46 | 11.16.12

Posted by on November 18th, 2012

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. Click Twice to Enlarge — NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

Mean Reversion Bounce

Posted by on November 17th, 2012

We could be setting up a mean reversion bounce in the next 7-9 days as we hammer out a temporary low and in the process of forming a higher low.  Get ready to trade both ways!  There should be plenty of opportunities intraday.  A great opportunity Friday, as we probed lower on very oversold conditions.  I am also [...]

Overnight Overview for Friday 11/16

Posted by on November 16th, 2012

I am in Las Vegas today attending the Traders Expo where I will be speaking on Saturday (and focusing on overnight trading). The 2-minute videos will return next week. But I will post a quick look at the Odds Sheet and review of my trading decisions each day. Below is the Odds Sheet from Thursday afternoon.   …

String of Poor Closes…

Posted by on November 14th, 2012

Where the market closes within its daily range can be an indicator of sentiment.  Over the years I have shown studies indicating persistent closes in one direction often lead to a reversion. An example of overly-optimistic closes was shown in the…

40-day Lows Below the 200ma

Posted by on November 13th, 2012

A review of yesterday’s Odds, last night’s action, and a look at overnights following 40-day low closes below the 200ma.

Strongly Bearish Signal That (Barely) Triggered Monday

Posted by on November 13th, 2012

Bad breadth on an up day is something that has been shown to lead to bearish inclinations in the past.  On Monday, according to my data provider, the SPX closed up while the NYSE Up Volume % came in at 44.7%.  This triggered the below s…

A Look At Veterans Day

Posted by on November 12th, 2012

Veterans Day is one of the few US holidays when the bond market is closed and the stock market is open. Columbus Day is another. But while Columbus Day has exhibited some quantifiable edges, Veterans Day has not.  (At least none that I have ident…

ETF Rewind – Post Election Blues | Week 45 | 11.09.12

Posted by on November 10th, 2012

Source: Mrkt_Commentary** subscription service; prior weekly posts. NEVER INVESTMENT ADVICE

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