ETF Prophet

It was a weak end to an otherwise strong month, leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) down by -1.3% on the week,  but nearly +3.0% higher for the month of September.  Emerging Markets (EEM) logged a particularly impressive monthly performance.  Meanwhile, it’s certainly odd to see Value (PWV) and Healthcare (XLV) styles/ sectors sharing ten-month relative strength [...]

It was a rocky week but a very strong quarter.  Weak historical tendency came through today for end of September and beginning of October had been down in recent years.  There was some window-dressing but the intermediate trend headed back down today.  However any beginning of October weakness maybe met with new month money.  There [...]

Just a quick look at what’s going on over on the Mosaic SITUATIONS.  We track the major sectors ETFs  of the market each day and rank their relative strength and momentum to derive short term trading opportunities while simultaneously building an equity curve of the top 2 or top 3 daily ranked ETFs. The colorized [...]

The price action in SPY showed some real strength in that it gapped up, never filled, and closed above the open.  When the market is coming off an oversold level in an uptrend and is still not overbought, this pattern will often be followed by fu…

With a 3% correction in the rearview mirror, the market bounced back as portfolio managers marked up their winners this quarter.  We will probably see some  more buying or back and filling action in the next 3-4 days.  After that we will have to see if the test of the 2012 high holds or not.

We may have found temporary support at the 143 to 142 SPY level which coincides to the closing price right before the QE3 announcement.  We have some Spain worries but after dropping 5 days, we are much closer to a bounce.  Even though the last day of the September month is historically weak, we could [...]

Google making a new high was not able to overcome small cap and Apple weakness.  Spain concern and CAT warning also contributed to the weakness.  We already dropped for a few days, tomorrow is the best chance for any window dressing to occur especially on a weak open.  With IWM sinking below March high and [...]

It’s been a while since I updated the Turnaround Tuesday study, so I thought I would do so today. 
The stats tables below all show results of buying at the close when SPX
is down for a certain number of days and the exiting the following day.&…

Poor open from Apple and more Eurozone bailout hiccups gave us a poor opening, but again buyers jump on the dip and took us off the low a few minutes into the open.  Leadership from Google, Baidu and strength in banks helped to stabilize things.   As we get closer to month end, underperforming manager will be [...]

Last year I showed that the week following September options expiration has historically been the most bearish week of the year. 2011 didn’t do anything to make the stats look any more bullish.  Below is an updated chart showing the persistently p…

It was a bit of a bumpy post-FOMC/ expiry week, ultimately leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) slightly lower by -0.4%. Select sector indices and asset classes were significantly less fortunate; you may wish to scan the list. It will be interesting to see how the end-of-month trade fares going into October. Meanwhile, here is to [...]

This week was a consolidation week after last few weeks’ blistering gain. The dip buyers will look to buy again next week for quarter end.  I wish there is more to write but in this QE environment we still have to respect the uptrend and look to buy the dips.  Have a nice weekend.  

Buyers didn’t waste any time taking advantage of the lower prices this morning.  World wide easing has created a large supply of underinvested bulls anxious to buy weakness.  With the strong close, bulls maybe anticipating high prices for option expiration.  

After the oil mini flash crash and oil service stocks mini crash in the past few days, some are wondering if this would spill over to the S&P.  The indices ended up but there were about 10 intraday swings in a tight range. Stocks like J.C. Penney and Questcor had wild swings due to news [...]

For the second straight day, the market saw mild selling and late day buying.  Trading action feels like typical QE stretches when volatility remains low and range small as we slowly grinds higher.  Not much to say as infinite QE gets underway.

The streak of negative Mondays continued.  We came in overbought and in need of some consolidation.  But it was too early to count the bulls out after hitting a new high and buyers again step up before the close.  With worldwide QE and month end next week, any further dip will probably be a buying [...]

The S&P 500 (SPY) finished last week higher by another +2.0%, leaving equities broadly short-term overbought coming into this new week. [Week 38 Calendars: Economic | Reporting]

Even with the SPX rising Friday, the VIX managed to close up a bit. The VIX will typically trade in a direction opposite the SPX, so it is unusual that they both close higher. On Fridays, the VIX has a natural tendency to dip in the afternoon, so it i…