ETF Prophet

Ben Bernanke didn’t announce QE3, but the Fed chief hinted that the FOMC is moving in that direction. There was some volatility in the early going, but  another round of quantitative easing rumor put a bid under the market. Traders will be expecting an announcement in the next couple of months.  Even though the intermediate [...]

The Friday before Labor Day has long been a strong seasonal day for the market.  Below is a stats table based on buying the Thursday before Labor Day and selling the close on Friday.

With 71% of the days finishing higher, a profit factor of …

The market has held up very well for several weeks due to speculation about central bank action at Jackson Hole on Friday morning. The market got a bit jittery as talk is building that no new action will come out of the speech. The intermediate trend turned down and the short term trend turned down. With the [...]

Despite the SPX closing lower yesterday, the NYSE saw 56% of its issues close higher.  This brought about a study that I last showed in the 6/29/12 blog.  Results are updated.

The numbers here suggest an upside edge.  While not ext…

Small Cap and banks continue to lead today.  Even though there is doubt about a QE3 announcement at the Jackson Hole conference, few market players are willing to be short in front of the event. Tomorrow had been historically weak  and the further we fall away from 142 SPY, the odds increase that we will [...]

We bounced back from early weakness and held steady into the close. Month end buying continues to prop us up and we can probably expect the same tomorrow. We also have Friday’s Jackson Hole speech to look forward to as we close out the summer month.

Volume was extremely light, and the Apple legal win inspired rally faded into the close. So far we are holding up well and consolidating a strong August month of gains. Chicago Fed President Evans gave a speech in Hong Kong premarket and stated he is in favor of more aggressive bond buying to bring down [...]

Friday was what I call a mega-outside day. It didn’t just make a higher high and a lower low (a regular outside day). It actually opened below the low of Thursday and closed above the high of Thursday. This is unusual, and in the past it has led to a …

The S&P 500 (SPY) fell -0.5% on the week, breaking the market’s six-week up-streak. Heading into next week’s Jackson Hole meeting, Emerging Markets (EEM) remain as short-term oversold as Precious Metals (DBP) are overbought. [Week 35 Calendars: Economic | Reporting]

The bears failed to push the SPX below 1400 and the oversold bounce kicked in after more QE3 discussion from Ben Bernanke.  Rumor of Europe placing a band to contain bond yields also help.  With this strong rally, the short term and intermediate trend are aligned upward again and we may challenge the high again by early [...]

When SPX hit a new high on Tuesday (Aug 21st), doing so deemed the 6/12/12 Follow-Through Day (FTD) “successful” according to the possible definitions of “success” I included in the FTD studies.

Based on a number of the FTD studies, this one …

Eurozone double talk and economic reports continue to hold buyers at bay. The global PMI numbers show slow growth and weakening demand. US Initial Jobless Claims (372K vs. Exp. 365K (Prev. 366K, Rev. 396K) also stoked fear of a deteriorating economy. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes were talked down by Fed President Bullard saying “the market may have [...]

Tuesday marked the 2nd day in a row where the QQQ made a lower low and a higher high.  Days that do this are often referred to as “outside days” because they trade outside the range of the previous day.  When QQQ has posted back to back …

It’s a go. With a couple of quick calculations and a few clicks I’m back in. In the first week of July I deployed the first of three installments of my allocation to the Permanent Portfolio. I went as simple as possible using ETFs and took an equal weight position of 25% in each SPY, GLD, TLT, SHY. This portion of the allocation finished +1.11% in July and is currently +.26% in August. So far all is as expected with Gold hanging around and Stocks and Bonds following their modern pattern of divergence. The decision to make an allocation to the Permanent Portfolio was easy. Deciding how much to allocate to it proved to be much more of a challenge and has lead me to start the development of a comprehensive approach to managing my capital. I have come up with five main categories or types of portfolios with the following allocations:   Permanent Portfolio 40% Variable Portfolio 20% Direct Portfolio 20% Living Portfolio 10% Doomsday Portfolio 10% Permanent Portfolio Basic Permanent Portfolio in simple form: Equal weight allocation of 25% to each SPY, GLD, TLT, SHY. The goal of this portfolio is to gain exposure and take part in [...]

After hitting a three day low this morning the market was ready to bounce. A dovish FOMC minutes showing a majority willingness to purchase more bonds with increased flexibility gave the market a reason to rally into the close. AAPL also reversed $20 off the low to close higher on mid September Iphone 5 release [...]

Today the SPY made a higher high but was not able to accelerate through and hit resistance at prior high of 142 to 143 to reverse lower.  Apple gave some early hints as it traded in a twenty five point range to close near the low.  The short term trend is down and a move to [...]

We’re in the midst of a mid day reversal pattern as equities appear to be losing their mojo.  TLT has actually gone positiver for the day after an early smack down.  Materials are the hot sector today…both gold and oil were roaring early on but have cooled considerably.  The NYSE advance/decline line (NYAD) started to [...]

The market has seen a lot of finishes near the top of its daily range lately.  When the market consistently closes near the high of the day it suggests optimism on the part of traders. This end-of-day optimism is now at a level that suggests it i…