ETF Prophet

The market churned as we waited for news from the Fed and the European Central Bank, but selling picked up late and pushed the short term trend to down. Apple was a bright spot as it was bid up on a potential stock split rumor. As QE is quite well anticipated, anything short may cause [...]

It’s one of those days with bonds falling in concert with equities.  The VIX is up moderately but days like this can be head scratchers.  TLT and other bond ETFs are due to go ex-div on Aug 2 but you must be a holder of record on Aug1 to pick up the payout.  You can [...]

As I mentioned last night, Wednesday is a Fed Day. Fed Days have historically had a bullish inclination. Of course Wednesday is also the first trading day of August. I’ve documented numerous times that since the late 80s the first trading day of th…

Today was a consolidation day before the FOMC rate decision Wednesday. Interesting that both bond and VIX closed in the green today while SPY printed a doji. Today relieved a little overbought pressure, but short term trend seemed to be trying to turn down. However, we can’t be too quick to jump on the divergences without confirmation [...]

One potential positive about Friday’s breakout is that it occurred with SPY posting its 2nd unfilled up gap in a row. The study below examines the implications of this.

Day 1 is a toss-up, but after that results appear extremely consistent and …

Last week’s “European Confidence Boost”/ Drahgi commentary plus a slight U.S. GDP beat and other factors supported a powerful two-day rally, leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by a full +2.7% on the week to the top of its recent trend-channel. While our short-term oscillators have quickly moved into a broad overbought composition, with such [...]

We got the bonds to reverse on the back of two Draghi comments to close the week. When another Mario Draghi headline about bond buying, cutting rates, and additional LTRO hit the wires mid day, the S&P vaulted another 12pts after a strong start. The easy gains on the long side is probably gone, but [...]

I am already reading the complaints calling this an oversold bounce and not all the right sectors participated. After the sharp drop this week, some type of snap back rally was to be expected. It’s comical that another Euro is saved rumored from Draghi gave us a big rally from overnight selling and turned both short [...]

This is a little study to see how much risk management the Mosaic RM filter produces.  Note that in this case the entire Mosaic portfolio is just 1 ETF …SPY… 100%, so Mosaic=SPY.  The Max Drawdown #s are the focus of my attention and it reveals that the RM filter cuts drawdown essentially in half [...]

One interesting aspect of Wednesday’s action is that the SOX (Semiconductor Index) did so well, gaining 1.92%, despite the decline in the Nasdaq.  When this has happened in the past, it has often been the SOX that has been “right” – at le…

The pickup of call buying or some last minute buying in the last few days had prevented a true washout bottom. The side ways action is trying to slowly reverse the short term downtrend while the intermediate trend had refused to turn down. However, we have expansion both in new highs and lows in the [...]

Here’s a little study using the Delta Bands to examine EWC vs our study yesterday of FXC.   Note the max consecutive loser numbers.  As a trader I’m always trying to find low risk situations and this set up  looks pretty attractive.  EWC typically responds well to support/resistance systems..much more so than FXC.  The problem with [...]

Another late day recovery took us off the low as the Wall Street Journal reported about potential FED action if growth do not pick up soon. The late bounce moved the S&P 500 back up over the key 50-day simple moving average at 1333. AAPL missed on both the revenue and eps forecast on soft [...]

Here’s a little exercise using the Delta Bands and FXC, the Canadian Dollar. I’m testing the robustness of the system on a variety of securities and this is about par for the course.  Similar results for EEM and TLT plus a gaggle of others.  There’s more noise on the dollar and euro (UUP & FXE) [...]

One notable aspect of the price action over the last 2 days is that both Friday and Monday posted unfilled gaps down – never reaching breakeven at any point during the day.  Since 1998 occurrences have been followed by a strong pr…

After a 25% VIX spike and some panicky overnight action regarding Europe debt and China slow down, the market trended up all day after a bad open.  Key stocks like GE, GOOG, JPM hinted at the early strength.  We have AAPL earnings tomorrow and aggressive buyers took advantage of the morning dip.  Rumor has it [...]

This is a followup to Friday’s optimism about the % change band. I refined the concept a bit and here are the results for GE… a system I call the Delta Band.  The performance metrics for TLT are almost identical and initial studies suggest this signal could be a useful swing trading tool, especially if [...]