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Much Needed Consolidation

Posted by on April 30th, 2012

The market was a bit extended coming and we got a needed pullback today.  Merger Monday helped to support the market and the selling was not severe.  Breadth was around 2-to-1 negative and Apple pulled back after a strong post earnings run.  Beginning days of May had a positive bias.  On further weakness we could [...]

04.30.12 – Struggling Beneath VWAP

Posted by on April 30th, 2012

SPY is attempting to establish support, but it’s struggling to do so beneath the VWAP and lower lows would not surprise with internals like this.  On the other hand, volatility (bold grey line), while elevated as compared to Friday, is ruler flat.  I expect SPY support ultimately resides in the low $139 range if we [...]

Why Friday’s VIX/SPX Action Could Be Short-Term Bearish

Posted by on April 30th, 2012

A couple of months ago (Feb 27th blog) I showed the study below. It looks at instances of SPX and VIX both closing positive on a Friday. The VIX has a tendency to move opposite the SPX, so when they move in the same direction, it can often suggest an …

ETF Rewind – Recovery into Overbought | Week 17 | 04.27.12

Posted by on April 29th, 2012

April brought the first real bump in volatility for the year. However, last week equities put in a steady incline, closing up nicely on the week for roughly a breakeven monthly performance. In fact, nearly all asset classes performed well last week, with the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by +1.8%. The caveat being (isn’t there [...]

Portfolio Trader Sept. 6th, 2011 ~ April 27th, 2012

Posted by on April 28th, 2012

. Portfolio Trader started 6th of September 2011. With this post I want to share my performance review of the first  seven month. Typically seven month isn’t enough time to fully judge the performance of a trading system. However I feel ok sharing it now as we have been going through a few distinct market types [...]

Strong Come Back

Posted by on April 27th, 2012

There were some excuses for selling today like the lower-than-expected GDP number and the downgrade of Spanish debt.  Instead the bulls focused on the retail sector and good earning report Amazon, Priceline and LinkedIn.  The 50 point bounce since the low has been impressive, and we now have the recent highs back in sight. Some [...]

Friday Fun – Just Making Sure You’re Paying Attention

Posted by on April 27th, 2012

04.27.12 – Stocks Move into Overbought

Posted by on April 27th, 2012

Major resistance has been broken and price has been in an uptrend since the Apple results and Amazon is pushing the QQQs higher still. Prior highs as the next target? A little consolidation would be healthier, I suspect. Speaking of which, the SPY is doing so just now right below R1. We otherwise have range [...]

Spain Downgrade

Posted by on April 26th, 2012

We had some follow through from yesterday’s strong action. Some profit-taking and consolidation the first hour and buyers stepped in early. Fed chief Ben Bernanke’s comments that quantitative easing was not off the table provided some support for the buyers.  However today’s strong close left us overbought and we are running into resistance at the [...]

04.26.12 – Follow Through to Resistance

Posted by on April 26th, 2012

The SPY is literally up against range resistance just under $139.50. I think it could still go further, say to .8 — at which point price will be entering early (in time) overbought territory. Otherwise, internals remain suggestive of range bound trade.

Top of the Range

Posted by on April 25th, 2012

Earning from Apple gapped the market up strongly and then a supportive Fed helped us to close at the highs of the day.  With earnings mostly done and Fed back on the sidelines, will the attention shift back to the deteriorating economic numbers or troubles in Europe ? We are also back to the top [...]

April 2012 FOMC Markup by ETF Prophet

Posted by on April 25th, 2012

Blue-lined markup comparison of the April versus March Federal Open Market Committee/ FOMC statements below: Labor & Spending Improving/ Housing Depressed Inflation Increased Continued Accommodative Stance Low Rates Expected to Late 2014 No Specific Mention of “QE3″ Global Strains Remain Single Hawkish Dissent Don’t forget the first reaction is often a fade, but price can [...]

Large Gaps Up On An FOMC Day

Posted by on April 25th, 2012

Here is one from the Quantifiable Edges Guide to Fed Days that is triggering this morning:

Strong gaps up on the morning of a Fed Day have typically been followed by more strength that day.

An Apple a Day Keeps the Bear Away

Posted by on April 24th, 2012

In the wake of yesterday’s shakeout, the S&P 500 bottomed at 1358.79 yesterday and had a continuous climb back up.  Bears may have over reached with more selling in the NASDAQ and AAPL dropping 9 out of 10 day s before earning.  Bears may have a hard time tomorrow with a good Apple earning after [...]

04.24.12 – Apple Holds Back the World

Posted by on April 24th, 2012

Semi’s aren’t helping either. Internals are still looking good, but showing signs of strain. Then again, one had to be looking for resistance at SPY $137.75, and it’s not too late in the day for equities to catch a second wind above the VWAP — meanwhile, watch that falling AAPL.

What The Two-day Gap Pattern In SPY Suggests

Posted by on April 24th, 2012

Unfilled gaps can be a signal of strength in the direction of the gap.  But when they are quickly reversed by a sign of weakness that can suggest the first move was false.  Friday’s unfilled gap up in SPY was a sign of strength.  Monday’…

Waiting on Apple

Posted by on April 23rd, 2012

We finished near the highs but the recent range broke to the down side.  Apple struggled again before earnings tomorrow but also closed well off the low.  From a technical standpoint, we are in a dangerous position and we could possibly probe the 1350 to 1330 on the S&P 500.  NASDAQ also breached its 50 [...]

04.23.12 – Volatility Stair Steps Down after a 10%+ Bump

Posted by on April 23rd, 2012

The AD and Cumulative Tick lines are attempting to repair opening damage. I’m watching those trends and how the SPY handles potential opening print resistance to get a gauge on the PM session.

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