ETF Prophet

ETF Rewind Pro – 01.25.12 Dear Subscriber The market put in its expected FOMC pop higher, even after testing the rising ten-day moving average yet again at the open.  In fact, four day resistance was broken to the upside, as led by Utilities and Materials on dollar weakness.  Even so, the slow pace of gains [...]

Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear that the Fed is ready, willing and able to act should the economy falter.  The Fed feels the economy is weak enough to justify keeping interest rates low until the end of 2015, but the prospect of endless QE had the bulls in a buying mood. The big question [...]

Positive tick has me thinking this congestion zone just below the pivot breaks to the upside. How price will do at SPY $132 resistance remains to be seen.

Blue-lined markup comparison of the January versus December Federal Open Market Committee statements below. Slowing Growth Inflation Subdued Continued Accommodative Stance Low Rates Expected to Late 2014 One Dissent Don’t forget the first reaction is often a fade, but price can move quickly. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this site, and prior statement markups [...]

Yesterday I showed that Fed Days typically carry a bullish edge, but that edge failed to hold when the SPX closed at a 20-day high just prior to the Fed Day. By closing down 0.1% Tuesday the SPX narrowly missed closing at a 20-day high. So are we now…

ETF Rewind Pro – 01.24.12 Dear Subscriber The market put in another 'recovery day' off its rising five-day moving average.  In fact, the rising ten-day moving average has acted as daily lows support for nearly a month.  Although it was ultimately mixed close, Apple earnings took all the major indices higher after the bell.  Still, [...]

The buyers aren’t backing down and we worked steadily higher to close at the highs after about a 10pt drop in the morning.  Apple numbers are very strong and guiding upward for the second quarter. The stock is looking to open up big and pull the rest of the market along for a ride especially the [...]

Wednesday is a Fed Day.  As I have discussed many times, Fed Days generally carry an upside tendency.  But this tendency is greatly impacted by certain variables.  A large collection of these variables may be found here on the blog under…

And yet we are seeing some fairly stiff resistance at the mid-day levels. That said, it’s impressive to have seen small-caps so strong.

“The risk of a portfolio is not a linear function of the vector of its components. Rather, the variance of a portfolio is a quadratic function of its composition. This thwarts the intuition of most Analysts and Investors. Indeed, the nature of risk may be the single most important argument for the use of quantitative [...]

Hi Gang, I realized today that this is one of the two-day Federal Reserve meetings.  The FOMC statement will be tomorrow.  Price gaped lower at the open today, but is attempting to recover from its still up-sloping five day moving average. Sincerely, Jeff Pietsch

This is the other side of the Mosaic equation…the hedging ETFs.  Keep in mind that our goal is to create a market neutral position and then collect premium decay and any possible price appreciation while at the same time limiting our downside risk.  Note that VIX is included in our hedging portfolio.  This ETF is [...]

ETF Rewind Pro – 01.23.12 Dear Subscriber Today's price action started strong, but ended mixed and flat overall.  The last few days have allowed overbought readings to slowly burn off with respect to the breadth of equity ETFs presenting that status (46% today versus 78% last Thursday).  This may allow the natural rotation referenced a [...]

. Price Action [neutral] Volatility continues to decrease on multiple time-frames (F) as the market remains overbought (E). A combination of very low volatility within an overbought market triggers a negative signal (J). .. Seasonality [positive] Seasonality is bullish for week 4 (C/D). . Breadth [negative] Market Breadth (J) is up, though significantly overbought. . [...]

We had a sharp intraday reversal but the dip-buyers provided support once again and kept the indices almost flat.  Breadth was positive and strength in financials, precious metals, steel and coal helped the bulls.  Apple will report earnings tomorrow night and unlike October, it is not up huge from its last quarterly report.  In addition [...]

ETF Rewind Pro – 01.20.12 Dear Subscriber A final hour Financials led recovery left the S&P500 higher for the fourth day in a row.  The board indicates a positive bias for Monday in the Trend and Reversion columns, but the persistent HV Alert is still cause for 'hedging' concern.  To sound the broken record, the [...]

Update Last week the portfolio saw an increase by 0.76%. For the coming week a number of stocks will be replaced. Portfolio Profile Cash  0% Commodities 0% Real Estates 0% Stocks (long)  78 % Stocks  (short)  0% Treasuries   22% About Portfolio Trader Read more about Portfolio Trader here (link). Past trades can be found [...]

The third week of 2012 continued equity’s march higher, finally leaving the market in a broadly overbought state with the VIX heavily overstretched to the downside. Indeed, the S&P 500 advanced another +2.1% during the holiday shortened week. Price may have a bit farther to go into the FOMC statement (not to mention a rumored [...]