ETF Prophet

Over the last eight trading days, the S&P 500 has traded in a very narrow range. For four days in a row, we have had downside action but the dipbuyers continued to bail us out and supported the low. With window-dressing pressures now over, will the new month money be enough to hold us up? [...]

I’ve shown before that of all days Tuesday has historically shown the highest propensity to halt a short-term pullback. The study below is one from the larger Turnaround Tuesday study. All stats are updated..

As you can see the market has strong…

The European sovereign debt issues triggered some selling at the open, but the market held up reasonably well.  Breadth managed to improve quite a bit from nearly 4-to-1 negative in the early going and excitement in technology spilled over.  The bears came close to taking out key support at 131 and 130 on the SPY, [...]

This is a graphic comparison of SPY versus Mosaic versus LT6 (a Mosaic model skewed to the upside). LT6 has a built-in equity curve signal line (MOM21) that determines when to increase or decrease net position size.  Keep in mind that these are NOT rotation models.  The components of LT6 and Mosaic are the same [...]

Equities took an expected breather last week, but ultimately leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) down just a tenth of percent. Perhaps more interesting was the U.S. Dollar (UUP) pullback, leaving Commodities (DBC) commensurately overbought. Small Caps (IWM), Real Estate (IYR), Materials (XLB) and the Transports (IYT) are also looking a bit over cooked. Looking ahead, [...]

Update Last week the portfolio saw an increase by 2.76%. For the coming week a number of stocks will be replaced. TLT did quite well given the bullish stock market environment. I will further reduce my TLT exposure.   Portfolio Profile Stocks (long)  84 % Treasuries   16% About Portfolio Trader Read more about Portfolio [...]

Volume was light and we drifted lower, but there was constant support under the surface.  Strength in small-caps and news that Facebook expects to announce its initial public offering next week ignited a wide range of internet names.  Until we can take out the low during the FOMC rate announcement   the bears will continue to [...]

Up and Down volume are fairly well matched, but price is struggling to maintain its current level and most of the range has been below VWAP. Meanwhile, the rising ten-day moving average continues to contain the downside; I’ll be watching that closely this afternoon session.

After 3 weeks, we finally had our first day of decent selling.  Euphoria over the Federal Reserve’s low interest-rate announcement was reversed early on.  The Fed is back on the sidelines and major earnings mostly done.  What will be the catalyst for a further rally?  That said, the dip buyers must be salivating to buy [...]

Price action is taking a mild breather after yesterday afternoon’s post-FOMC run.

Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear that the Fed is ready, willing and able to act should the economy falter.  The Fed feels the economy is weak enough to justify keeping interest rates low until the end of 2015, but the prospect of endless QE had the bulls in a buying mood. The big question [...]

Positive tick has me thinking this congestion zone just below the pivot breaks to the upside. How price will do at SPY $132 resistance remains to be seen.

Blue-lined markup comparison of the January versus December Federal Open Market Committee statements below. Slowing Growth Inflation Subdued Continued Accommodative Stance Low Rates Expected to Late 2014 One Dissent Don’t forget the first reaction is often a fade, but price can move quickly. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this site, and prior statement markups [...]

Yesterday I showed that Fed Days typically carry a bullish edge, but that edge failed to hold when the SPX closed at a 20-day high just prior to the Fed Day. By closing down 0.1% Tuesday the SPX narrowly missed closing at a 20-day high. So are we now…

The buyers aren’t backing down and we worked steadily higher to close at the highs after about a 10pt drop in the morning.  Apple numbers are very strong and guiding upward for the second quarter. The stock is looking to open up big and pull the rest of the market along for a ride especially the [...]