ETF Prophet

The one way market continued today and having the “C” word in the title may appease the stock gods. The S&P 500 has gone down for five straight days and 11 of the last 13 days. The market is too stretched to the downside to support aggressive shorting, but it is showing no signs of [...]

It’s just another line in the sand on a chart, but it’s so widely followed it should start to get folks’ attention. The real question, is whether it will be used as a buy point, or a major risk-off signal for institutional money. It seems news flow will drive the day. On one hand I’m [...]

Regardless of whether the market has closed up or down, SPY has consistently closed near the lower end of its range over the last 5 days. Below is a list of all the instances where SPY closed in the bottom third of its daily range for five days in a r…

Although the indices weren’t down that much, it was another disappointing day for the bulls. Perhaps too many was anticipating today’s bounce.  When the European Central Bank was rumored to be holding off from using further stimulus tools and more Greek bank problem surface, the sellers took over.  In addition, the FOMC minutes did not [...]

Yesterday I mentioned the Risk Spread chart of the RYDEX Mosaic and today’s we take a quick look at the status of the ETF Mosaic.  A different portfolio with a different market neutral skew and the ETF model appears to be ahead of the RYDEX model in making the zero line turn.  We still need [...]

On Monday the SPY closed at a 50-day low for the 1st time since the beginning of October – just over 150 trading days ago.  Not only is it at an intermediate-term low, it is strongly oversold on a short-term basis based on several measures. &nb…

ETF Rewind Pro – 05.15.12 Dear Subscriber, Equities logged another day of distribution, this time on quite heavy volume and our reversion bias weakened further still, which is unusual during a normal pullback — it’s that abnormal factor that’s weighing it down.  And yet, we’ve yet to see what I’ll call ‘healthy’ capitulation.  With key [...]

The pattern of early bounce attempt and weak closes continued today. We haven’t had a strong finish since late April, and that is just the opposite of what we saw in the first quarter when we went up daily. We were oversold and ripe for a bounce, but after two brief attempts, Greece and Europe [...]

Another week, another hit to the SPY but our RYDEX workhorse has so far weathered the storm.  I’ve added a line to reflect relative gains over the past 5 days as well as the usual tracking metrics.  Traditional risk management models used by many money managers hold 60% stocks & 40% bonds but using RYDEX [...]

The market is looking for support to bounce, but is still struggling and range-bound on the day. My primary concern going into the p.m. session is the sudden rise in inter-security cross-correlations. Watch that ICJ index closely.

For the fifth time in the last six days, we gapped lower, bounced back mid morning and then closed weak. The dip-buyers lost interest quickly after upside momentum stalled and we ended up closing near the lows of the day for the first time in a week. Breadth was poor and Greece continues to plague [...]

SPY Price held its first test where we’d hope it would near $134 and is trying to recover for a challenge of S1 from below.  That will be an important level this p.m.  Internals are still awful, of course, but volatility appears to be leveling.

Despite reaching a short-term oversold condition several days ago, the market has failed to mount any kind of substantial bounce. I looked at this a number of ways over the weekend and in the subscriber letter last night. One study I conducted looked …

Equities tried and failed to hold support last week, but neither has a capitulative event occurred. It still ‘feels’ like price is on the edge — at once oversold, yet not broadly so and more negative news flow could easily hurtle us towards those as yet rising 200-day moving averages. For the week, the S&P [...]

The environment for trading contains numerous sources of potential risk, from sovereign defaults to bank failure to war in the Middle East. The ability to follow broad and protracted trends across global markets and commodities has never been more difficult. This explains the recent popularity of volatility index trading and also asset allocation methods that [...]

The market worked very hard to shake off a steady dose of negative news, but there was just too much of it. It was impressive that the market consistently bounced back from weak opens, but there is no upside momentum and the market is barely holding above support. Next week is the much-anticipated Facebook IPO, [...]

This is always a good sign — not easy to shake off the blues in the Financials, so it will be important to see how the SPY acts here at its daily VWAP. I have been traveling this week and it’s good to be back gang!