ETF Prophet

Since Tuesday, we’ve climbed higher on declining volume and positive holiday trading.  While some have the Santa visit pegged from next week to beginning of 2012, we already had a decent rally from the bottom and are no longer oversold.  The question now is whether the bulls will keep pushing next week. We have some [...]

Enjoy the holiday everyone!

Action was slow but positive around the holidays.  We gapped up and grinded higher most of the day.  Up side bias are likely to continue into next week as we challenge the 200 day moving average.  Tomorrow the action is going to be even slower before a holiday shortened week and after a few up day risk of choppiness [...]

It was a nice opening move, but it looks like there has been some covering on its ability to hold.  Never short a dull….

The last few years I have shown the “Twas 3 Nights Before Christmas” study along with results for the SPX.  It continues to do well.  But this year I decided to show results for the Nasdaq Composite.  As you’ll see, the seasonality there…

Early morning weakness was met with buying late in the day.  ORCL and technology stocks was a big drag but the bulls held where they need to in the S&P.  Looks like Santa is not ready to leave yet.  However, we have to remain vigilant in a low volume choppy market, especially with VIX hitting [...]

Everything gets brighter from here on out, right?  As expected, equities are giving up a portion of yesterday’s gains with large-cap tech taking the hardest hit.  The SPY has found mid-day support at S1/a key Fib level.

After seeing over 90% of the volume come to the downside on Monday, Tuesday registered a 90%+ upside volume day. A 90% down followed by a 90% up day is something that was never seen from 1970 – 2006. But this is the 10th time we’ve seen it happen…

The market finally turned today on some positive news out of Europe and was able to build on the morning gains instead of selling off. The mid week reversal kicked in. There are a few comparisons to the Oct 4th rally and many calls for the Santa rally today. The next resistance is in the [...]

Investors and traders often take a one-dimensional view of time frames in the stock market. The media pundits often refer to the fact that it is a “bull” or “bear” market as if there was only one time frame required to make such an assertion. Contrast that with the fact that both traders and investors [...]

It’s a beautiful “Turnaround Tuesday”, although the SPY is taking a breather at R2 — watch that.

For the 3rd day, the market opened near the highs and closed near the lows. December is turning into a lousy month dropping nearly 5%. Volume had been light but the sellers are relentless. The S&P is now at the 61.8% retracement level, a close under this opens up the door for $119.61 SPY, then [...]

The next Fibonacci target below is SPY $120.30. Internals are not supportive here, but as one chat member asks “are we staring a gift reindeer in the mouth?” O.K., I added the reindeer part. We’ll see.

The TrendX signaled a short cover at Thursday’s close and a BUY at today’s open.  Interestingly, Thursday’s closing price on GDX was the same as today’s open, with Friday providing some possible early entry momentum. The larger markets are clearly at major support levels and despite media hype the technical picture doesn’t look all that [...]

The S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back a full -2.9% for the week, representing a 50% retrace from its recent swing highs. While holiday seasonality may well come to the rescue going into the final two weeks of the 2011 — France downgrade rumors loom large this weekend [update, apparently only an outlook downgrade]; equities are [...]

Update Last week the portfolio saw a decrease in equity (-2.42%) while SPY lost (-2.93%). TLT trade worked out well by protecting the portfolio. Unfortunately GLD dropped significantly and therefore has to go. The TAA (Tactial Asset Allocation) part of the portfolio is going to turn into the most bearish setup. To it’s already bearish TLT holding [...]

We had a rare down December/FOMC option expiration week.   Most importantly, it gave us another down weekly close and VIX is scrapping along the recent low.  This action felt a bit like the lousy Thanksgiving week and upside probe had been rejected two days in a row even though we closed slightly green both days.  [...]