ETF Prophet

About time we had a 2% pullback from the blistering upside action.  25% retracement area comes around $124 on SPY and 38.2% retracement is SPY $121.  Do you feel lucky with new month money and Ben on Wednesday?

Happy Halloween from Market Rewind!

~{;->} Pumpkin text attempt above. Third test of the lower bounds of the ATR bands was the charm for trend day continuation lower. AD was trying to lead the internals higher, but it just couldn’t hold on. The sideways nicks and cuts range in the a.m. is the exact reason I generally advocate looking for [...]

There is a battle going on for the third slot, meanwhile TLT’s retrace keeps the model in cash. It’s interesting to see the slate remain net bearish in spite of the major equities recoup.

The S&P 500 (SPY) broke it’s two-hundred day moving average, finishing up another +3.7% on the week. The NASDAQ 100 is even challenging its 2011 highs as the VIX shows some nascent stability below the 30 line. Can the news flow continue to be supportive at this key inflection point? While the VIX is apparently [...]

These are the trades I’m going to take for the coming week. In case you consider mirroring my trades make sure you do your own homework upfront in order to match your personal risk profile (no investment advice).
- Frank

After the big day Thursday, the flat action today was what the bulls wanted to see. The action yesterday created a bigger supply of dip buyers hungry for gains into the end of the year. The consensus seems to be the uptrend will continue after some consolidation or  minor pullback and is unlikely to fall apart [...]

Here’s a little update on the DBC DBA pair trade that I’ve mentioned previously.  Currently LONG DBA this trade has a super smooth equity curve … expected with an 95% linearity.  The incremental P&L is just that…incremental, and the last 8 trades have all been winners.  This pair trade is somewhat unique in the regular [...]

Range days have had a way of breaking out in the late afternoon session…. Nevertheless, it’s bullish to see stability above the 200-day for now.

Obviously at this point, the market is extended and in need of some consolidation.  A big supply of traders is missing out and will act as potential dip buyers. We have also recapture the 200 ma and will likely draw in more money from the bulls.  Many were looking for a 1300 SPY in the [...]

Looks like long-term money is coming back in on the 200-day technical trigger. Obviously short covering too, but do note highest volume since 10/4….

The S&P 500 tested the old resistance, now support on the SPX at 1221, and bounced hard. Industrials,  refiners and banks held in well. Tonight we get more info out of Europe . The longer we hold above 1190-1210 on the S&P, the greater the probability we see higher prices during the fourth-quarter. All that [...]

Internals holding positive… Note the power of those three large volume peaks as the market seeks price discovery: Resistive/ Supportive/ Resistive/ Oscillating to VWAP

Today’s drop was refreshing after the endless run up, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1216-1228 on the SPX to get retested which was the previous resistance of the old range. Time wise, we can use a few more days of down to sideway consolidation. Yesterday’s high of 1256 may get tested again in [...]

SPY volume came in at the lowest level in over a month on Monday. Very low SPY volume when the market is at or near highs is often a bearish sign. A few studies related to this appeared in the Quantifinder this evening. I decided to examine the combina…