ETF Prophet

…so I’d say caution is warranted into the close even though S1 has been good support so far. Heck, if it holds long enough I’m open to a final hour miracle like yesterday, just no evidence of that right now — keep an eye on that VIX too.

After looking into the abyss for an hour, the buyers showed up and closed us in the green.  There is a huge performance gap in the NASDAQ today; perhaps it’s related to large fund liquidation?  Did window dressing play a part in the late day bounce? Usually this sort of mixed-up action is not a [...]

This could be very important, if it pans out. Adviser to US Presidents, Plunge Protection Team, she carries some weight. Ok, without further ado Get Prepared Euro Your Time Is Gonna Come by billwitt Pithy Klatuu

Internals are largely positive so I’d normally expect price to hold its ground or ultimately advance in the p.m. session. However, for now a mild downward trend is persisting (see negative VWAP) and Tech is showing relative weakness, so those two different pictures will have to resolve soon.

Copper’s been a leading market indicator for so long that’s it’s nickname is Dr. Copper. It’s most recent diagnosis has been a bearish movement in the S&P 500. If this morning’s German vote to again economically support the EU, followed by the lower jobless claims number pre-market is any indication of a bullish move we’ll [...]

In my last post I looked at how SPY has performed from open to close when a 2% gain was followed by a gap up of at least 1%.  Today we are seeing another 1% gap up, but this time it is on the heels of a 2% loss.  So I thought it would be inte…

A minor opening bounce was decisively sold, and the market closed near the lows of the day, crushing our three-day bounce.  Volume was a bit lighter, but we have another lower high forming after testing the break down area of last week’s FOMC sell off.  This has to be worrisome for the bulls with a [...]

I’ve blogged recently about the change in market behaviour recently, particularly in relation to short term mean or range reversion. Quite simply, the market aint behaving like it used to. In some ways, we had it too easy in recent…

This is a postscript to my previous post and a recognition that the market gave up half its impressive mid day gains by the close, much of it in the last hour. Sincere congrats are due by all readers to my esteemed cohort Rob Hanna for so diligently pointing out this probability in his earlier [...]

This morning, the market blasted higher on continued chatter about some sort of Euro-TARP and quarter end optimism.  SPX turned down in the upper end of resistance zone 1190-1195 as news rolled out that the most recent Greek deal might be in trouble because private investors are balking about the size of the hit they [...]

Well… so much for that fade at the open and I left a few bucks on the table betting that side of the game.  Net Long was the place to be with no gap fade even as the NYAD opened at an astounding 32…currently at a still astounding 9. Little surprise as EEM leads the [...]

Next Fib resistance is SPY $119.50.  Of course, with the overseas/ overnight trade predominating US moves, floor pivots and other measure become “conveniently” irrelevant during the regular session.

SPY is gapping up large this morning after rising 2.3% yesterday.  Below is a study showing how SPY has performed intraday under similar circumstances over the last 8 years.

Based on other gap studies we have seen, the negative result…

There is an interesting relationship between the “risk-free” rate (t-bill rate) and the benefits of diversification. When rates are close to zero, the risk reduction benefits from low or anti-correlated assets can offset the requirement for those assets to have a sufficient expected return to make diversification practical for enhancing risk adjusted returns. This extends [...]

After a choppy start, the quarter end rally took hold on more European crisis solution meetings.  Once the train got moving the bulls piled on.  Breadth was 2:1 positive but the NASDAQ and small-caps underperformed.  12-month new lows continue to outnumber the highs by a very wide margin.  The biggest and sharpest upside moves almost [...]