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You Are Browsing the July 2011 Archive:

Budget Drama

Posted by on July 25th, 2011

The consensus seems to be that the debt ceiling will be raised in time and we are just waiting on the details of the deal.  That belief gave the buyers confidence early in trading but worries about a USA credit rating down grade late in the day gave us a soft close and breadth finished [...]

07.25.11 – Working on a SPY Gap Fill

Posted by on July 25th, 2011

And the QQQ’s are already there.  The up move is running contrary to internals, which remain negative albeit ever so slightly improved, as well as a persistently higher VIX reading (+9%).  One or the other has got to give at some point with price taking the edge as led by large caps.  Volume is completely [...]

TLT Clouds

Posted by on July 25th, 2011

Last week I mentioned the Strategy Matrix as a means to gain a thumbnail perspective on real time momentum in TBT.  I’ve updated the systems from 12 to 14 and and focused on TLT for this morning’s look into the market’s crystal ball. 30  minutes in today and we are seeing the dynamics of a [...]

ETF Rewind – Week 29 | 07.22.11 | Deal or No-Deal?

Posted by on July 24th, 2011

Week Twenty-Nine provided a nice snap-back rally, leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by +2.2%.  That same move; however, left short-term technicals slightly overbought, setting price up for the Friday after-the-bell challenge poised by the failure of the US debt ceiling negotiations.  Early Sunday evening has the S&P futures down -11 points,  but let’s be [...]

Livermore Active Issues Index for Friday, July 22th

Posted by on July 24th, 2011

Weekend Drama

Posted by on July 22nd, 2011

The Teflon-market action continues as the SPY held on to yesterday’s big gain and the QQQ quietly notches a new 2011 high.  Given the risk of negative headline news over the weekend, the market did very well today.  Traders have learned that this market has a strong tendency to continue to run up and overbought [...]

Friday Fun – Lazy Afternoon

Posted by on July 22nd, 2011

07.22.11 – Range Bound Consolidation?

Posted by on July 22nd, 2011

Volatility has taken another 2% hit at the mid-day as we settle into sideways action (add: excepting the Qs, which are rising nicely). Price is somewhat overbought, but there is still room above until technical resistance levels are reached.

A TBT Prozac Moment

Posted by on July 22nd, 2011

TBT doesn’t normally cause heart palpitations but Thursday it dropped 1.5% in 5 minutes before rebounding back to parity in another 5 minutes on equal big volume bars.  TLT was the exact opposite action. And you thought you were trading on a level playing field.  This was 10 minutes BEFORE the FED announced that it [...]

Sticky Upside

Posted by on July 21st, 2011

Unexciting technology earnings report last night had technology in the red when news out of Europe about the sovereign debt issues caught the bears by surprise. And like yesterday, we had a further pop when the New York Times reported a debt ceiling deal was close.  Even though the news was later denied on CNBC, [...]

07.21.11 – Debt Deal Pops

Posted by on July 21st, 2011

Progress in Europe and rumors of a debt deal in the US have a strong bid under internals. Nevertheless, assuming something “gets done”, the upward resolution to uncertainty is clear in spite of mixed economic reports. Those will come back to the fore at some point, but clearly not today. Weak resistance can be drawn [...]

Trading a Fractal Multi-System

Posted by on July 21st, 2011

The Strategy Matrix is a useful tool resident with Schwab’s SSPro platform.  It’s not available on the new EDGE platform, which has multiple weaknesses and limited functionality for active traders (Sorry, Chuck).  The Matrix allows a trader to create and backtest a variety of systems and to adjust the input variables over a wide range [...]

Consolidating Gains

Posted by on July 20th, 2011

Despite exceptionally strong earnings from Apple Tuesday, the market was unable to build on that momentum today, but held in well after yesterday’s big move.  A bounce in financials helped contain the damage.  Tonight’s notable technology earnings from F5, Qualcomm, Ebay, and Intel are all under pressure, but the S&P500 seems to be holding up [...]

07.20.11 – High Probability Gap Fill, but…

Posted by on July 20th, 2011

We had 80% odds of a gap fill this morning, however, odds of that holding through the close fall considerably (using the Gap Studies from ETF Rewind* and DV_indis Research*). While price is in a mild downtrend (at least in the XLF supported SPY), market internals continue to signal a range day at the half-way [...]

LM Risk Model Update

Posted by on July 20th, 2011

One hour into today and here’s the Lazy Man’s Risk Model view of the markets.  The VOLUME BUZZ is all about TLT and XLF this morning, with opposite momentum.  TLT, which was on steroids yesterday, surging to it’s long term 97.50 resistance level, is on a downslide today, though unlikely to give up all of [...]

Apple Of My Eye

Posted by on July 19th, 2011

Investors continue to embrace strong earnings from IBM and Coca-Cola, as we recover from oversold conditions.  When President Obama made comments that there has been some progress on the debt ceiling, it triggered another wave of buying around the 132 resistance area on the SPY.    Earning reports are a mix of good and bad. [...]

Does Your System Perform as Expected?

Posted by on July 19th, 2011

Knowing if your system is performing as expected is one of the most crucial question for a systematic trader. This question is mostly raised in times when you “feel” that your returns aren’t in line with what you had expected. However, I strongly think that a reality check should be part of a periodic system [...]

07.19.11 – Run to SPY Fib Resistance

Posted by on July 19th, 2011

Fibonacci resistance is roughly at SPY $132.10. Internals are highly positive, although price has found difficulty moving up and over this level. Transports (IYT) and Financials (XLF) are cooling off a bit at the mid-day.

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