ETF Prophet

The fourth day of straight up action wrapped up the second quarter.  This morning the bears were caught off guard again on a much better than expected Chicago PMI report.  The VIX continued to get creamed before the long weekend and is at an attractive level where it had typically reversed.  We are really due [...]

I’ve been out of action trading wise for the last month. I got married at the start of the month and enjoyed an active yet refreshing honeymoon in Peru for 3 weeks (We’re not beach people!). Even in the Peruvian…

And takes a breather within this heavy resistance zone…. Internals are otherwise very strong at the midday — only issue being they don’t get much better than this. Can you believe we are half way through 2011?

An hourly chart of the Lazy Man 5 shows TLT’s recent retreat.  TLT’s flatline from the 16th to the 26th is also clear. We’ve discussed previously the importance of the $92.50 level and that’s the target in our sights currently.  SPY and most of the pack have made impressive albeit low volume gains since the 23rd, [...]

After nearly closing the gap on the Greece bailout fade, the bulls took us out close to the high.  News that credit card companies received a positive ruling on debit-card fees today helped the market bounce back from afternoon weakness. We are quickly running into strong overhead resistance at 131.20 on SPY but the tendency [...]

This is a test sample of the type of material that will be regularly included along with our daily chat room feed and daily “ETF Rewind Lite” screen for all ETF Prophet subscribers. The basic subscription, “Mrkt_Commentary“, is included in all other subscriptions level in our premium area, which is being slowly but surely built [...]

Market is migrating into overbought territory, so this will be a good test of this much belated bounce…

Continuing our TLT analysis here’s Project Z’s log ratio approach to define TLT’s correlation with the VIX…this time using weekly bars and looking back to 2004.  A 14 period Detrend oscillator is also displayed as it has proven to be a reliable confirmation signal.  Expanding the chart will reveal pivot high (red) and pivot low [...]

The bulls did an excellent job of keeping the market running straight up today after the buyers showed some signs yesterday.  We had a couple of very minor dips but it was mostly steady buying throughout the day.  How much of today’s strength is due to traders playing the positive seasonality period and end-of-the-month window [...]

Price is above it’s 21-day moving average for the first time in nearly three weeks on this Trend Day Follow Through. Facts on the timing of the Greece austerity vote have been inconsistent, but it looks like it’s tomorrow unless its another one of these midnight votes. I’ll post here as soon as we have [...]

Monday we looked at daily bars of TLT versus the Lazy Man 5.  Today we gander at monthly bars of TLT versus SPY (line).  Going back to 2004 we note Monday’s price of $96.50 has consistently provided a line in the sand. Nov 08 and June 10 ushered in 2 variations to the extreme, although [...]

We started off slowly this morning but gained steam before a weak finish. Strength in financials, oil, commodities, and big cap momentum stocks was the main driving force.  It feels like a combination of a short squeeze and end-of-the-quarter window-dressing on average volume.  We still have oversold technical conditions on longer time frames, some nearby [...]

Internals are nicely positive, but not expanding. This has me on guard for a potential late-day reversal, but so far so good on decent leadership.

After posting a Follow-Through Day (FTD) on Tuesday, the market has now pulled back for 3 days in a row. Using the database of Follow-Through days from the original FTD study, I took a close look at short-term performance after other such post-FTD…

TLT is presenting something of a conundrum recently. While SPY and the other Lazy Man sector components have steadily eroded since May, TLT has essentially flatlined.  This is a worrisome situation for those traders like myself trained to engage TLT as a hedge for SPY weakness and TLT’s failure to launch has longer term concerns [...]

We always appreciate the intelligent commentary connecting the dots at Zero Hedge, but here’s a hilarious twist as I prepare this evening’s ETF Rewind Pro link fest…. [Zero Hedge]

Although the S&P 500 (SPY) was back down again by -0.2% after volatile sideways trade, the tech-focused NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) and small-cap focused Russell 2000 could be signaling an end-of-month rescue comeback, both higher by +1.1% and +2.2%, respectively.  It’s a tough call with new-flow so unabashedly sub-par, and, of course, Tech actually led Friday’s [...]

This morning had promise, but when support quickly gave way, the buyers quickly faded into the hot summer weekend.  Its bearish Friday and there is a spike in the VIX.  The pre-weekend swoon has been one of the more predictable events in the recent down trend but it generally signals we are near bounce in [...]