ETF Prophet

The newly introduced Gaps tab had already being beefed up!  See tonight’s excerpt from ETF Rewind Pro: “Speaking of which, by request, I have added a “Hold Until” feature to the Gap tab so that you can test either holding until the subject Gap/Lap target has closed, or through to the market close.  The first [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today was the first day to establish true overbought status, breaking the prior down channel on volume led by the Technology sector.  The first couple days of a new month are typically largely positive, but for tomorrow we have a neutral to mildly bearish signal based on early OB conditions.  It may be [...]

The ETF Rewind gap tab forecasted today’s action perfectly.  Today’s gap was ranked Gap Up 5 with a 45% chance of filling and with today’s low right around Friday high.  Early on buyers worried about weak economic reports, but came back strong at the close.  Even though the volume is hard to compare vs a [...]

The mega opening gap is fading, but internals are still net strong and I’m not necessarily looking for a complete close. In fact, the odds are slightly against it. That said, VIX continues to be on the rise at the mid-day so keep an eye on that as the SPY tests R1 from above.

In early going this morning SMH is on a tear but Volume BUZZ is muted throughout and the NYAD is clearly downslope so it’s anybody’s game at this point. TLT, GDX and VIX are all up…a bit of a conundrum but trading the VIX is always . ..well . . .amusing. EEM has been the [...]

One reader asked me this weekend whether the combination of Memorial week and the positive seasonality experienced on the 1st day of the month has provided any special results. I took a look, and it has. If the 1st trading day of the month is Tuesday t…

Dear Subscriber, This is a brief note simply wishing you all a terrific Memorial holiday as we remember those who have protected freedom.  The short-term trend looks to be reversed with a slight bullish bias on the board for Monday.  While one may expect this bias to continue through the first days of the new [...]

May saw its fourth consecutive down week, leaving the S&P 500 (SPY) roughly -0.1% in the red. Save the US Dollar (UUP), a handful of equity and commodity ETFs nevertheless pushed into early overbought status. In the upcoming holiday shortened week, equities will have to overcome these conditions, as well as confront the top of [...]

The bulls closed the week by adding to a 3 day oversold bounce. For the S&P500 it narrowly missed a positive week and that makes 4 down week in a row. Volume was light due to the holiday, but breadth was good. Fundamentally, the economic reports show some sign of slowing and the European sovereign [...]

Memorial week has some seasonal tendencies of which traders should be aware. I’ll be going in to some of these in this weekend’s subscriber letter, but below is a study that takes a broad look at the week as a whole. You’ll note that the study go…

Did I mention that GDX was the focus of my attention over the past few days?  It’s leading the way into the afternoon session with GLD tagging close behind.  The decision to focus on gold in lieu of TLT has turned out (so far) to be the right play and this is compounded by the [...]

Here’s the action on 10 minute bars over the last couple days on SPY (shaded), GLD, GDX, TLT and XLF.  Luckily, my GDX bottom fishing connected yesterday although, as usual, I should bought more. Both yesterday and today see GDX marginally stronger than GLD which may simply be a function of beta….GDX is .69 and [...]

The bulls put together a pretty good bounce in afternoon trading despite minor weakness in the closing minutes. There just wasn’t any rush to add long exposure in front of the long weekend.  The S&P 500 closed slightly over the 50-day simple moving average.  Leadership by NASDAQ and Russell 2000 suggest traders want to make [...]

Dear Subscriber, After a lap-down open, the SPY proceeded to break its five-day and fifty-day moving averages to the upside today with perhaps a bit more holiday-effect upside room remaining.  However, SPY $134 remains important down-channel resistance to watch and all of yesterday's commentary continues to apply with neutral to slightly bearish outlook for tomorrow [...]