ETF Prophet

The bulls continued today to help lift U.S. markets to their third straight month of gains.  Semiconductors were weak, and technology stocks in general struggled a bit after a negative call on the sector by a major broker.  Oil stocks reversed to the upside and finished well as talk about unrest in the Middle East [...]

Dear Subscriber,   The bulls continued today to help lift U.S. markets to their third straight month of gains.  Semiconductors were weak, and technology stocks in general struggled a bit after a negative call on the sector by a major broker.  Oil stocks reversed to the upside and finished well as talk about unrest in [...]

Just a quick update to Monday’s action. A late afternoon swoon took the wind out of the market’s early head winds but, true to form, the last 90 minutes produced the high of the day for most positive beta issues.  In the Lazy Man portfolio XLB was the top performer, reinforcing its role as Friday’s selection [...]

One correlated outcome of the rising Euro (we’ll talk about that later) is the decline in the dollar (shaded chart), which looks poised to hit its November sub-22 low.  The Prognosticator is near neutral when attempting to forecast dollar direction.  Depending on the time frame reviewed there is little fractal alignment of the signals.  Meanwhile, FXE [...]

Pressure was relieved last week, but indices are still set to close the month in the green. It will be interesting to see whether they can recapture their prior highs, or if this is just a mandatory retrace leading into a more languid period of trade after such a torrential melt-up.

Dear Subscriber,   The indices suffered a losing week, but another V shaped bounce seemed to have kicked in today.  Another reason for the market strength today is that we have had so many strong opens on Monday mornings, and then Tuesday is the first day of a new month, which has a stellar record [...]

The indices suffered a losing week, but another V shaped bounce seemed to have kicked in today.  Another reason for the market strength today is that we have had so many strong opens on Monday mornings, and then Tuesday is the first day of a new month, which has a stellar record as well.  AAPL [...]

Scenario # 2 took hold today with the VIX plunging 10% as oversold conditions moved back towards mean reversion parity.  GLD climbed back into the bull saddle with a nice .66% gain . . not a new high but an impressive return to it’s close 2 days ago.  A bit of a surprise today but [...]

Dear Subscriber,   It was another volatile day of action with a good recovery late in the day as oil reversed sharply.  Bulls are often gun shy after a big drop and a bigger bounce on the 2nd or 3rd day is still possible.  However, we need to be on the lookout for a potential [...]

It was another volatile day of action with a good recovery late in the day as oil reversed sharply.  Bulls are often gun shy after a big drop and a bigger bounce on the 2nd or 3rd day is still possible.  However, we need to be on the lookout for a potential trend change as [...]

First an update on yesterday’s GLD post:  GLD held out in the green most of the day before stumbling mid day and closing down .75% for the day.  By way of comparison NEM closed down a whooping 7.36% and GDX closed down 3.14% for the day. After hours all three are up substantially, although still red [...]

With markets finally erm reverting this week, it's a good time to update on the success of the most basic of mean reversion strategies – namely buying after a down day and selling after an up day.  'Mean Reversion' is a nebulous theme, but the core idea is to sell when the market is too [...]

Dear Subscriber,   Oil continued up another 4% on more uncertainty in the Middle East.  After a very brief bounce this morning, we had some pretty strong downside once we took out yesterday's lows.  We continued to struggle until the early afternoon and were oversold enough to put together a bit of a bounce.  Just [...]

Oil continued up another 4% on more uncertainty in the Middle East.  After a very brief bounce this morning, we had some pretty strong downside once we took out yesterday’s lows.  We continued to struggle until the early afternoon and were oversold enough to put together a bit of a bounce.  Just as HPQ had [...]

This is an interesting view of the Lazy Man and GLD. The weekly bar chart shows the glittering performance of GLD relative to the classic Lazy Man portfolio for the past 8 months. But, what really is interesting is the position of the Prognosticator, which suggests that GLD is about to embark on another hot leg up. [...]

Dear Subscriber,   For the second time in a month, we have a sharp selloff due to unrest in the Middle East.  We trended down all day on the last sell off but bounced back over the next couple days.  This time, there are talk of significant bloodshed and disruption to the oil supply.  Oil [...]

For the second time in a month, we have a sharp selloff due to unrest in the Middle East .  We trended down all day on the last sell off but bounced back over the next couple days.  This time, there are talk of significant bloodshed and disruption to the oil supply.  Oil going up [...]