ETF Prophet

Dear Subscriber, Another flat day, with the notable exception of Materials, finished off a flat week [summary] ahead of what promises to be a news laden start to November.  While I don't envision a large move ahead of the Fed and National Elections, we do have an 'HV Alert' on the board in conjunction with [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary) The major U.S. indices put in a flat week with the S&P 500 (SPY) finishing higher by just +0.1%.  Notable outliers, including Real Estate (IYR -1.9%), Midcap Growth (PWJ +2.3%) and Agriculture (DBA +2.0%), underscored the low volatility in their slight absolute magnitude. Interestingly, Agriculture now represents the [...]

The exciting penalty box trading post July 2009 had returned (chart on the left). We haven’t had a move of greater than 0.5% for 7 straight days. The bulls will argue that it is positive that we are holding up. In addition, we have new month positive seasonality, the beginning of Santa Claus Rally, mutual [...]

Over the past few days I’ve mentioned the EUR Ledge, a narrow 20 pip price band that’s provided a consistent support and resistance benchmark for the past 3 weeks.  At yesterday’s US market close it looked like the LEDGE idea had failed but then (conspiracy buffs pay close attention to the upper chart) on a [...]

It is in the human nature to seek the path of least resistance. While this might be good in some instances, when dealing with my capital I usually try to keep it simple but I try to always steer clear from intellectual laziness. Many top tier bloggers have mentioned the traps of assumptions and the [...]

The buyers are spending a lot of energy buying before close for three days straight and the S&P found support again at the 14 day simple moving average.  Even though the dollar was weak and unemployment claims were better, and the bears were able to reverse the opening strength.  The broad market minus technology is stuck in consolidat for the [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today's flat close took the official bearish signal off the board, although a neutral to slight bearish bias will hold over going into tomorrow's Q3 GDP report, expected at +1.5 to 2.0% along with a Chicago PMI of 58 and a final Michigan Sentiment reading of 68.  The next two months have historically [...]

When considering long-short pairs trading candidates [background post], there are a number of important selection considerations. One of these is minimization of trend component, which may be considered at both the constituent security/basket level, as well as within the pair ratio itself. One screen that has worked quite well for ETF Rewind subscribers, has been [...]

The EUR Trak is clearly upslope this morning and may likely lead the EUR up to once again intersect the Ledge. Looking at the current 5 minute chart (not shown) reveals that most of the big bars this morning are bullish with very little tail and are consistently hitting the upper EUR Trak channel band.

Dear Subscriber, Technology was the standout in an otherwise downside day.  Although there was a late day come-back in equities, in fact this was just strong enough to keep our overall bearish outlook on the board.  Clearly the dollar is playing a very strong roll in relationship to intraday movements, this will be important to [...]

For the second day in a row, the bulls battled back and managed a strong finish despite a rising dollar.  Is the dollar and equity decoupling?  Buying each and every pullback has worked for quite some time.  The VIX had being up 20+% in a very short time, so a retrace there maybe possible?  The [...]

Moderate dollar strength on Q.E. II commitment queries has multiple asset classes taking a breather today with all equity internals pointing to further downside. For very near-term support, I will next look to SPY $116.80, approximately the twenty-day rising moving average. Granted, this could precipitate further selling playing off what have been building technical divergences [...]

I previously set the stage for a EUR Trak signal to short the FXE at the US market open (8-10 minutes in) and today’s signal was a great confirmation of the signal parameters. 

While my own research focus has generally shifted towards the technology of combining multi-indicator/multi-variable models, ultimately I depend on various single indicator inputs for this approach. Therefore, having indicators that capture something that is slightly different or can reduce the complexity of a model by condensing a concept into one number is still highly desirable. [...]