ETF Prophet

A quick note to anybody that will be at the NAAIM Uncommon Knowledge 2010 conference next week. CSS Analytics will be at the conference.  One our researchers, Dave Abrams, will be presenting a paper next Wed in the “Secret Sauce Trading Techniques” based on an innovative new trading system that uses the DV2 and other [...]

In today’s chat, I have been discussing the use of relative volume to confirm fast momentum move reversals. The dashed line represents volume on the SPY adjusted for the daily “smile” effect where am and pm volume are higher than mid-day volume such that we can see how unusual volume is on a normalized basis. [...]

Dear Subscriber, Greece resolutions, at expectation Jobless claims and strong earnings and M&A deal flow primed the market for  a very bullish trend reversion day with small caps leading the charge.  For tomorrow, however, we have stronger bearish signals on the board.  I think this recovery can go further, but note that we are coming [...]

If the seams in the market are cracking they are doing so in their own sweet time as Mr. Pietsch so eloquently pointed out in yesterday’s comments. Today was a strong day, with only a few reluctant lagers like SMH, which finally joined the party in the last 2 hours.With oversees debt worries easing EEM [...]

Excellent internals featuring strong cumulative tick and advancing volume suggest a continuation of the bullish morning trade. However, I’ll grant that price is facing mid-day resistance near its highs at this time.

I think it’s safe to say I have to stop trading and start sim trading at this point.

coming soon!

Dear Subscriber,Financials led a moderate recovery that nevertheless left Technology behind.  While we have neutral bias on the board for tomorrow, I expect that the added acquisition and earnings news after the bell have the potential to help rectify that discrepancy and take us higher still.  However, I'll grant that Asia is mixed this early [...]

Above, the 4 square chart of weekly bars with the VIX/SPY and VXN/Qs, and it’s hard to tell these 2 sets apart. Short term mid-panel technical implications are bullish for the VIX/VXN and bearish for the SPY/Qs although the SPY/Qs continue to ride the LR30 mean upslope.Below is a pattern that is becoming evident with [...]

Blue-lined markup comparison of the April versus March Federal Open Market Committee statements below. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this site, and prior statement markups here. Virtually no changes, including the requisite Hoenig dissent. [Click Graphic Below to Enlarge]

The sizable opening gap higher closed for a retest of yesterday’s lows on a swift reaction to the Spain downgrade just as the SPY tagged its daily pivot. However, in spite of the noisy trade, internals continue to warrant a positive outlook into the afternoon session. Be sure to check back for the fastest Fed [...]

Dear Subscriber,Economic and reporting beats couldn't prop up the Portugal downgrade and Goldman Sachs testimony.  I have never heard so much slang on the hill as today.  So, the market finally got its reason to sell, closing out our short signal with a fat gain and potentially setting us up for a nice reversionary bounce [...]

Bit of a turnaround today as global debt worries appear to have sparked a selling spree. Things looked like they were going to perk up around 12:45 as the VIX started to fade, but those who have been trained to keep a close eye on the NYAD noted only a modest revival in that index, [...]

 Thanks to Bill Luby of VIX & More for pointing out in our trading room today that the VIX has only risen 30% or more 13 other times over the last twenty years or so.  The natural question — what has happened next?  Here is the real quick one-day out answer for the S&P500, not [...]

Just had a read of an article from Rajiv Sethi who had this choice quote to make on regime switching: "One ought not to expect markets to be efficient or inefficient, but rather to experience periods of relative efficiency that are interrupted from time to time by severe disruptions." "Relative efficiency" I like that. There [...]

With Goldman Sachs on the Hill and Portugal in the limelight, the market got its pre-Fed reason to sell  overbought conditions.  Will we get a Fed-day reversal tomorrow? That would be the recent norm, but that question will loom for the day with internals as negative as they are even as price attempts to stabilize [...]