ETF Prophet

Dear Subscriber, Only Energy and Financials were spared today's small retracement.  Tomorrow we have a moderate bullish bias going into the new month and quarter.  Nevertheless, traders will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye on Initial Jobless Claims (440K expected) after today's disappointing ADP numbers.  If it confirms weakness, it may lead to outsized selling [...]

Internals are flat to positive.  The trend is higher, but internals aren’t giving a strong reason to ride that train on this last day of the quarter.

400 print on the ask at 1.3525 Update:

You don’t even have to look at the sort results. If you’ve been watching the Rotators for a while you know that the odds-on favorite, the Qs, are leading the pack as usual. So, it turns out my uber cautious exit was a bit premature yesterday. But I’m not feeling any regrets. . . the [...]

Dear Subscriber, Although Financials lagged, the major indices mostly ended higher on very light volume.  Momentum continues to wane with respect to new participation, but there has been no reason for trader's to take advantage of that point, and speculation now focuses on the next upside target.  At this point, overbought conditions have dissipated, so [...]

Not much to comment on today.  Internals are leaning negative even though the SPY found support near its 5-dma/ S1 level.  The falling VWAP is now proving resistance.

I probably should have clarified yesterday that the $.18 1/3 ATR8 stop I was applying to the Qs was a trailing stop. From an execution perspective the Qs made an intraday high of 48.40 15 minutes into the session, followed by a hairy bottom swoon to 48.23 and hour later and a gradual climb back [...]

Everyone including myself have been guilty of trying to find the magical indicator or variable that has eluded us all. Truthfully, it is not likely to exist–at least to the degree that you expect. All indicators share a reasonably high correlation to others that are measuring the same thing in slightly different ways—DV2 and related DV variants are a good example. [...]

Dear Subscriber, Energy led the way higher for a non-eventful trade.  However, the last push did initiate bearish reversion signals on our dashboard.  These naturally  need to be weighed against the predominately bullish trend of the markets going into a new month within a holiday shortened week — both bullish factors.  It's hard to imagine [...]

The market is loping along higher on mostly positive internals.  Price has seen a little pressure after tagging the top of its recent congestion zone, but appears to be finding support around the rising VWAP.  New highs participation could be stronger…  [Google is having trouble posting my graphics, apologies!]

The MLR Rotator still has the Qs in slot #1 while the top 5 slots continue to be closely grouped. GLD was the big mover on Friday, but note that in the 5 Day column (relative 5 day SPX performance) GLD is still in negative territory. Given the somewhat precarious technical position of the majors, [...]

In case some of you missed the announcement, we just realeased DV Indicators for Amibroker. The first package released contains mean-reversion/oscillators with several new indicators. The standard DVO, DVB (DV Bounded),  DVSC (DV-Supercharged), DVI (DV Intermediate Oscillator) and DVDS (Super-Smoothed Double Stochastic) and a few others are also in the same package. The recent market period [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary) Most of the major indices posted their fourth period of gains last week, leaving the S&P 500 higher by another +0.5%.  However, the last two days of the week did reintroduce a modicum of volatility on geopolitical news events — that may well be a function of how [...]

Dear Subscriber, As a quick Sunday update, we have a neutral to positive outlook for Monday.  The last two days' action only proves the market is particularly susceptible to geopolitical news after this big run, and we have a new month and jobs reports to look forward to next week.  We also have a volatility [...]

Fascinating set of posts from from DShort on the annualised total return roller coaster. The real (accounting for inflation) annualised returns on the S&P 500 have varied over a 5 year rolling period from -13.22% to 33%. The 30 year cycle is still volatile but still no guarantee of super- varying from 1.91% to 11.16%. [...]

Looks pretty toppity, doesn’t it? What started out as another “boring” up day turned into our second reversal. It’s being attributed to the Korea news, but it looks pretty technical to me as we hit yesterday’s mid-line. Apologies for the late post.