ETF Prophet

From our Guest Contributor "Mr. Ice" Action Friday was generally positive but lack zest.  We had a similar type of day a few weeks back with the snowstorms keeping the big traders home.  I believe Northeast had severe weather again on Friday and may have kept some institution traders home.  When they came back last [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary) Choppy sideways trade left markets down just slightly, with the S&P 500 (SPY) finishing the week lower by -0.4%.  While all of the tracked equity indices are once again above their respective 10-month moving averages and most appear neutral short-term, in contrast Transports (IYT) look fairly overbought, while [...]

Dear Subscriber, Short of a brief down spike on the home sales news, the last day of the month was fairly flat on balance, although, Financials did significantly outperform Utilities.  I had signals to carry long into Monday, but note that we have an extreme VIX/ big-move alert ahead signal here in the ETF Rewind.  [...]

Pretty boring end-of-month, huh?  Well, there is always miracle Monday and a shiny new month for the bullishly inclined.  All in all, internals aren’t too bad, but mostly sideways trade indicated.  What’s that they say about dull markets….?  Well, it’s pretty tempting though, isn’t it?

One of the nice features of the Schwab SSPro platform is the dynamic news window that automatically reports the daily NYSE order imbalances at 15:40 and then again at 15:50. Traders who’ve looked at these numbers probably also know that a few prop shops (like Bright Bros) make a good portion of their daily bread [...]

The last installation was incredibly popular, and thanks to all the public and private commentary (both good and bad) as it makes for better educational/entertainment value for all of us. So feel free to speak you mind—–I always like to have a little constructive debate now and then. Now getting back to the article, for [...]

Dear Subscriber, The wild reversal-day only proves to me how susceptible this market remains to fast breaks:  day-trading only.  My off-sheet models are suggesting a long outlook for tomorrow, but I see on the charts that we are at the top of the recent down channel, so I want to play that conservatively.  I'm still [...]

Most of today’s action happened in the premarket session.  Since then it has been slow waves around the VWAP.  Internals are a bit nasty, but not really trending per se.  I’ll grant that it “feels like” support here just above the twenty-day moving average, but intraday I’m actually finding the placid VIX action to be [...]

Hi Gang, I hope you will join us for this one-hour event at Noon Eastern here:  http://kirkreport.com/tkr/RgX9.  The mid-day post will be a little later than usual, accordingly.  I see the SPY has found initial support at its twenty-day moving average.  Internals remain fairly negative.  Good luck trading today!

This VIX reversal is shown with the Qs, but it applied to all the majors across the board on Wednesday. Bernanke’s upbeat comments apparently calmed an otherwise spooked market and, per yesterday’s comment, miracles do happen.This brings to mind my previous Bucket List post and although it was published almost a year ago, I might [...]

One of the most interesting strategies I've researched recently the PE/ 10 method of evaluating whether S&P 500 is under or over valued. I'm quite confident in the validity of this system and believe it would be a robust proposition going forward. My main concern was data. For my testing I used the data from [...]

Dear Subscriber, Financials led the charge to make good on our bullish bias for today.  In addition, I see that the distribution of our ETF Ranks improved.  However, the bi-modal distribution nevertheless paints a very split picture of this market.  As another aside, see on the daily time-frame how momentum remained slightly to the downside [...]

And now my readership will double, right?

Well, inside Chairman Bernanke’s head anyhow.  It has been erratic sideways trade during the testimony post opening noise; however, market internals look quite strong, so perhaps we can break to the upside after the hearing.  The only negative I see on the daily time frame — and it shouldn’t be discounted — is that momentum [...]

The VIX/VXX did finally show their true color Tuesday and it was green. The BZQ2/10 Prognosticator double negative signal at Monday’s close did provide a nice heads up for Tuesday’s action although the signals were in conflict at Tuesday’s close. These fades typically take at least 3 days to resolve so I’m not feeling bullish [...]

In the last post we discussed some of the components of a good rotation model. In our examples we used ETF Rewind’s Rotation tool. http://marketrewind.blogspot.com/2010/02/etf-rewind-announcing-customizable.html I showed that rotation across major indexes was suboptimal even with a good rotation model, and that adding bonds and a cash proxy had a much bigger impact on returns [...]

Dear Subscriber, We finally got a "small" reversion and the official bear signal is off the board.  That said, we have a conflict between the short-term trend, which was whipped lower on the big move (OK, relatively speaking), and a moderate bullish reversion bias for tomorrow. I think this later point may be a little [...]