ETF Prophet

Dear Subscriber, Energy and Technology led Friday's mini-rout in the face of better than expected economic news.  It's just one of those times when it feels as if the trend cannot be broken.  We retain a short-term bullish reversion outlook, and in fact, the market behavior indicator has flipped to a reversionary status for the [...]

One good explanation for the sustained downturn we recently had these past few days is the “bull flag” breakout in the US dollar. During most of 2009 when the market was rallying, the US dollar did not break its 20-day upper bollinger band once until November, and did not make several closes above it until [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ ETF Rewind Glossary) Markets provided little respite last week with nary a bounce so much as a brief pause that nevertheless left the S&P 500 (SPY) lower by another -1.7%.  This third week of losses has the S&P 500 roughly -6.6% off its most recent closing highs. Also, a broad swatch [...]

A strong GDP just wasn’t enough to forestall a gap close on this morning’s move higher. Internals are running sideways right now and we seem to be holding at the S&P’s prior close for now. Are traders perhaps taking pause to consider: The Fed beginning to turn off its supportive facilities next week? The rise [...]

This is a continuation of yesterday’s post and explores 4 different butterfly scenarios using EEM puts to create a debit spread.Scenarios 1 & 2 are based on a 2 strike spacing while 3 & 4 are based on 3 strike spacing. The thing I like about butterflies is that risk is capped (so is potential [...]

Dear Subscriber, In spite of all my negative commentary from last night, I more than half expected a bounce today — but no such luck and hedges continue to be appropriate.  This is probably all the truer ahead of tomorrow's GDP number (+4.7% exp).  The Asia trade has also gotten off to a bad start.  [...]

Does today’s action open the door for a second leg all the way down to that dark blue 200-day EMA for the S&P500 ($104.50)? I’m certainly not rooting for it, but post Bernanke confirmation, MSFT and AMZN beats, a lot will now be hanging on tomorrow morning’s Fourth Quarter GDP, expected in at +4.7%. “Short” [...]

Internals are heavily negative, and, although price is holding at the mid-day just above SPY $108, this seems to be the second leg down that many Market Rewind chat-room participants had hoped to catch on a firmer bounce — the lack thereof probably being the strongest clue this was in the works. In particular, in [...]

This post does not have anything to do with that colorful reality show character from the Jersey Shore. It does have something to do with some basic support and resistance daily bar bands. Regular readers know that I’m typically not a long term investor. Two to three weeks is my concept of “long term”, with [...]

Futures are still headed North post-State of the Union.  As clarification, when I referenced the SPY in the gray zone, I meant its middling ETFRank.  Additions from "Ice": Got a rally that stuck, but the magnitude is still below desire.  I just think shorting at this level in the morning today felt suicidal with some oscillator so [...]

Dear Subscriber, By some definitions the market is in neutral now.  I dislike how the SPY and other majors have gone to the neutral/ gray zone, how the intermediate trend remains down, how some of the "greats" like CAT and GS are failing, and how we have a moderate bearish reversion bias for tomorrow even [...]

Blue-lined markup comparison of the January versus December FOMC statement below. Also see past Fed-Day reactions on this nifty little site, and prior statement markups here. [Click Graphic Below to Enlarge]

Not much to note except that we are hanging in there considering overseas performances.  I will note that Cumulative Tick is very negative.  Even now price is mounting an assault on its morning lows.  This doesn’t bode well and the Fed statement had better be benign for the sake today’s market.

I meant to post this last night but family matters kept me away from the computer most of the day and night. I’ve added a few more components to my Telechart Rotation model in an effort to capture sector niches that were not considered previously. Based on Tuesday’s close and using a 3 day scan [...]

Dear Subscriber, Both Bulls and Bears had their day with more wild vacillations ahead of tomorrow's FOMC statement, State of the Union address, and Friday's Q4 GDP numbers.  Additionally, the earnings floodgate remains wide open.  On one hand, we are oversold in an intermediate-term down-trending market with an official 'Bullish' signal and a VIX more [...]

Dear Subscriber, Both Bulls and Bears had their day with more wild vacillations ahead of tomorrow's FOMC statement, State of the Union, and Friday's Q4 GDP numbers.  Additionally, the earnings floodgate remains wide open.  On one hand, we are oversold in intermediate-term down-trending market with an official 'Bullish' signal and a VIX more than 25% [...]