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You Are Browsing the December 2010 Archive:

2011 Fireworks?

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

The first few days of a new year are often positive as new money is contributed to retirement accounts and mutual funds.  We got a taste of the dip buyers’ appetite at the close today.  We had also being down 3 straight January and it’s rare to find a 4th consecutive down January.  If we [...]

Friday Fun – In the New Year

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

Livermore Active Issues Index for Friday, December 31th

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

Always read the small print…

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

Hi and Merry Christmas & Happy New year to one and all. Thanks for reading this blog over the past year. I’ve enjoyed sharing my research over the last year and I’m pleased to be back in the hot seat now my move back to the UK is finally bedded in. The New Year is [...]

Reporting the Year End… (UUP)

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

2010 has been quite a year for me – so much to be thankful for – a new little boy (Bobby) and a very, very busy day job.  But it’s time I got back to posting to ETF Prophet on a regular basis.  One of the things holding me back from writing more was a [...]

12.31.10 – Gap Fill to Pivot

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

Highly technical trade featuring a trend-day like gap fill recovery and classic pivot reject. I’d suppose that takes us back down to the VWAP presently. Volume is just too light, in fact, it’s the lowest of the year.

TLT & SHY – ETFR’s View

Posted by on December 31st, 2010

As I continue to assemble a TLT trading basket here’s 2 more views of the TLT/SHY situation that may help readers appreciate the utility of the Z Score approach embedded in the PDQ Dashboard, the ETFR and Project Z, each of which uses a slightly different variation of the algorithm. 

ETF Rewind Pro – 12.30.10

Posted by on December 30th, 2010

Dear Subscriber, The market felt tired today in spite of rosier economic reports, putting in mildly lower highs and lows led by Health Care and the Financials.  While we only have a mild bearish signal on the board for tomorrow (muddied by positive Live SPY Signals), I am concerned with the change in short-term trend [...]

Less is More

Posted by on December 30th, 2010

There are definitely enticing arguments both ways for tomorrow and the beginning of 2011.  In the past 10 years, the last day of the year have not been bull friendly.  Plus, given how far we had run, odds maybe more stacked against the bulls.  We also have classic holiday trading again with the hot money [...]

12.30.10 – Cooling Our Jets

Posted by on December 30th, 2010

Slight sell the news today with the five-day moving average on the SPY now acting as mild resistance. That said, although net negative, internals are really rather flattish and this could still go either way into the second half.

ETFR – Apologies for Late Delivery!

Posted by on December 30th, 2010

Thank you to the guys in the chat room for letting me know last night's file was not transmitted.  Not sure how that happened, but was likely as simple as me not hitting the send button!  My apologies and good trading to you.  As of the mid-day, markets have pulled back slightly in contradiction to [...]

ETF Rewind Pro – 12.29.10

Posted by on December 30th, 2010

Dear Subscriber, My commentary length remains commensurate to the market's volume!  Energy's big advance and the market's slight positive close belies the late day reversal.  In my opinion, we were bound to see this eventually with volume as light as it has been.  With volume likely getting lighter still, and major economic reports out tomorrow, [...]

TLT and SHY Linearity

Posted by on December 30th, 2010

Several readers noted the high correlation of TLT and SHY (long and short term bonds) in the PDQ Dashboard yesterday.  While a first glance at such a high linearity might suggest that there was little advantage to using SHY momentum to forecast TLT, the resultant PDQ calculation demonstrates that is not necessarily the case.  Of [...]

The Waiting Game

Posted by on December 29th, 2010

As we advance toward 2011, we’ve seen many calls for a correction in January. I was looking for the same, but if everyone is looking for it, then perhaps the trade is to buy the first dip off high or just waiting on the sidelines. If we start to edge higher, more anxiety will creep [...]

12.29.10 – Early Champagne Whine

Posted by on December 29th, 2010

Mild short signals be d@mned, intraday internals are strongly aligned to the upside as the SPY authoritatively takes out $126. I can hear those New Year’s bubbles… glad I’ve kept it light. Meanwhile, did you see the new Mrkt_Calendar link above? This nice feature provides global economic readings with embedded historical results and charts, courtesy [...]

TLT & PDQ Dashboard

Posted by on December 29th, 2010

Our new multi-phase approach to TLT swing trading includes the PDQ Dashboard, which is actually a basket within itself.  The Dashboard has been extensively posted on previously and with some recent refinements it has become a critical set of eyes to  help forecast short term market momentum. What we’re trying to deliver is a consensus view of  TLT’s  path [...]

ETF Rewind Pro – 12.28.10

Posted by on December 28th, 2010

Dear Subscriber, A marginally negative day from an internals perspective nevertheless resulted in fresh 2010 highs.  The newly minted 'Bearish' signal remains on the board, although the second confirmation model is more muted.  Meanwhile, I will finish this article and begin posting signals for this third system sometime next week. ETF Rewind Links: Live Next [...]

Do the Bulls have a Prayer in 2011?

Posted by on December 28th, 2010

For the second day in a row, the indices closed with only minor changes on very light volume.  Yesterday it was the rare earth metals that attracted the hot money. Today it was silver miners and other metals.  As China increases taxes and decreases exports on rare metals, REMX maybe an interesting ETF to watch [...]

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