ETF Prophet

Although the markets gaped higher on the late holiday retail pickup, internals are in what I’ll call, “extreme neutral mode”. Heck, the Advance – Decline line has vacillated between +200 and -200 for hours. Cumulative Tick is also running sideways, and Up and Down Volume are precisely evenly matched. Even though this is a full [...]

The PDQ Dashboard for the VXX generated no new signals as of Thursday’s close.This model is updated daily and new signals will be noted as they emerge.The big news last week was the VIX’s fall below 20 and it’s failure to rally back. A quick look at our style box below shows the VIX and [...]

Dear Subscriber, First and foremost, I hope you have enjoyed your long holiday weekend!  Thursday's abbreviated trade again moved to the upside on extremely light volume.  However, over 73% of tracked equity ETFs are now highly overbought — many on multiple time frames (Rewind:Cell-O1).  This isn't to say that the holiday cheer can't extend into [...]

Hello, as indicated before the 25% off DV Indicators Boxing Day  sale extends through today. Take a look at http://www.dvindicators.com/. Happy Holidays!

 (Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) A strong holiday shortened week left the S&P 500 (SPY) higher by +2.6% with the NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) up a full +5.1%. While the Santa Clause rally may well carry us into the new decade, I would be remiss not to mention that the vast majority of tracked equity ETFs [...]

I have added BZB Trader’s rotation model variation to my recent post (see second model “BZB”). Please note that his post inadvertently excluded mention of the SPY as a switching candidate, and that VTI must be shorted to replicate his model as specified. Cheers, Jeff

Thanks to all the loyal readers this year, I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. I will be back at it soon enough, and and for those of you who sent me questions or feedback or even left  good comments, I will finally have some time to address them after boxing day.

For some time now, I have wanted to publish a live Major Asset Class Relative Strength Rotation Model along the lines of an article that I posted earlier this year on the topic (see Two Simple Relative Strength Rotation Models). Since I had a little time this Christmas-Eve afternoon and was feeling motivated by BZB [...]

With volume that only Tiny Tim could appreciate, the market has managed to put in another day higher, definitively breaking out of its prior range and moving well into short-term overbought territory (is there such a thing?). Although Cumulative Tick has been net negative the entire session, it has also been upward sloping with most [...]

I can hardly believe it but I understand that some of my readers are not daytraders at all but actually have jobs and otherwise spend their days not glued to multiple monitors watching 2 minute bars flow by. I can almost recall a similar lifestyle many years ago, but being old my memory is a [...]

I’m starting to get “addicted” to reviewing every second of my recording sessions! lots and lots to learn when environment changes from bearish to bullish: Bullish Momentum Intraday High Intraday Low

Dear Subscriber, Let's face it, with a half-day and positive seasonality tomorrow, anything goes with a very mild bullish tilt — overbought as we are by select measures.  Sentiment has certainly been very strong in spite of mixed economic news.  However, to the last point we now have a more serious bearish mean reversion signal [...]

After the morning gap close on the housing report, cumulative tick and the advance – decline line turned on a dime and exploded higher.  However, thus far price hasn’t been able to do much with that and the SPY remains relatively flat-lined just above its green VWAP.  Perhaps we’ll have a stronger second half of [...]

Today is my birthday and here’s my present to regular readers……………….A robust little pair trade that’s got a lot going for it.#1… the N day cycle is 7 days, which produces a typical weekly cycle from entry to exit.. a time frame I like as it contains risk exposure and avoids extended drawdowns.#2… checking the [...]

Dear Subscriber, While I was happy to see technology and small-caps lead again on soft economic news, both of those indices are approaching fairly high overbought levels with two unfilled gaps below, and it's difficult to attribute this move to more than seasonality with volume near twenty-day lows.  Given that seasonality, it's again difficult to [...]

I’ve been recording my trading sessions lately, and it’s starting to bare fruit pretty quickly, but boy is it exhausting to go over the same 5 hours of trading after trading 6.5 hours. No pain no gain, I guess. The benefits so far from recording my own trading are: Ability to see mistakes a lot [...]

As has been the recent pattern, we saw an early gap and now range trade persists with evenly matched up and down volume.  Speaking of volume, there is none to speak of and I want to be on guard for any air pockets that may materialize as we push well into overbought territory here.  For [...]