ETF Prophet

Dear Subscriber, In our third back-to-back trend reversal day, Financials this time led the rout to new cycle lows, breaching the recently mentioned up-trend channel.  Monday is again a tricky call.  On one hand, we are still in the bullish monthly change-over period (who knew, right?) and selling into that first hour may have partially [...]

With positions flat, I couldn’t resist — but didn’t we do this last year too?   In any event, Happy Halloween from Market Rewind!

Our third trend day in a row just put in new lows for this extended cycle.  Of note, this was the first post-reversal day that hasn’t featured a higher-high in some time.  It would appear the psychology today was not to let yesterday’s gains be lost into month end; I know my finger was on [...]

Yes. . .I know how to spell. I post this only because it reflects a complete change of character and momentum in the Qs. . and it happened in one day.We got another nice clean VIXEN signal (per yesterday’s post) at 10:10 this morning, this time to the upside, and it held for the remainder [...]

note: a new post on MABI-Modified Absolute Breadth Index will be up quite soon–please stay tuned. For someone that has looked at data in many more ways that you can imagine, I can tell you one piece of important advice that will help create systems that will work out of sample: Focus on a concept that [...]

Dear Subscriber, Financials led a massive recovery today (XLF +4.17%).  Participation was somewhat more muted in the recently leading technology sector, but this was nevertheless just the sort of v-shaped turn I had ‘hoped’ to see at key support.  In fact most of our potentially stopped-out long positions from last night in the ‘Trending’ portfolio [...]

This is just the sort of v-shaped turn that the bulls wanted to see at key support, and we are just as much in trend-day mode to the upside today as we were to the downside yesterday.  Speaking of which, volume is slightly down from yesterday, which I also see as bullish as it makes [...]

I noticed lately a lot of stocks retrace their fib levels – 23.6, 38.2, 61.8, 78.6 – in ranges that with highs in an uptrend or lows in a downtrend that haven’t been reached yet, or don’t exist, hence speculative: Here, for example, the SPY retraced at the 78.6, 38.2 and 23.6 levels without reaching [...]

Taking a little break from my pair trading exploration, here’s a snapshot of yesterday’s Qs and the NYAD as seen on 5 minute bars. Quite a bit of quant blog traffic has been in an anticipatory mood, awaiting a bounce off oversold levels, but this chart should clearly show how unlikely such a move was [...]

Dear Subscriber, Last night I clearly speculated that we may be at an inflection point.  Well, the stops commentary saved the day and I cannot emphasize enough how much technical damage was done to the long-case today with the intermediate-term trend following suit to the south.  In fact, every single one of of the trailing [...]

We had good reason for a technical bounce today, but the fundamentals chose not to comply and the S&P500 is now challenging its fifty-day moving average in an apparent down-trend day. The VIX is steadily climbing on highly negative cumulative tick, wildly outpacing down volume, and down-pegged decliners. I will not put more long exposure [...]

First, a quick update of the PDQ Dashboard signals for the Qs as of the 10-27 close. The signal line has a strong alignment of shorts, although today looks like it could present a potential pivot low reversal..Now, back to the real work at hand. . . . Following up on yesterday’s FXY dashboard spreadsheet, [...]

Note: I am current a humble member (im the ”bat-boy” in this crew) of what I can best characterize as an “All-Star” team of  popular bloggers and traders that give you an actionable consensus  market outlook for the next day 10-15 minutes before the close. With Jeff Pietsch of Market Rewind, Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges, Michael Stokes of [...]

Dear Subscriber, We got our consolidation day, the question is whether we bounce at least briefly from here, or summarily break down to the previously indicated high SPY $104 level.  Consumer Discretionaries and Large-cap Technology continued to suffer on dollar strength.  To hedge against the breakdown possibility, I might consider stop-losses for new longs just [...]

The market is running sideways in range-day fashion with up and down volume fairly well matched.  Tick has demonstrated a slightly more bullish bias, but only marginally so, our sentiment indicator is weak, and the VIX continues to run relatively hot.  We are oversold in a short-term downtrend, but there is otherwise no indication of [...]

Sorry to display this spreadsheet in such small format but this seemed like the best way to show the correlation between the trade trigger dates generated by the z-score band reversals.Double-click to zoom up and you’ll see the trade dates for each of the seven FXY pairs.Obviously, the UUP is the real chatterbox here, although [...]

Dear Subscriber, Today it was Financials and Materials that led the retreat.  After days of losses, we have a fairly strong bullish mean-reversion signal and many of my proprietary models have begun to trigger as well.  I also see that the histogram of ETFRanks, while more diffused than during the prime of the up move, [...]

That was quite a tradeable dive to the twenty-day moving average on the SPY ($107.10), and S1 levels for the QQQQ and IWM, respectively.  Tells included the Financial’s under-performance, the cooling of the AD line and Tick, and finally the fast break higher in the VIX as price slammed the daily pivot.  At the mid-day [...]