ETF Prophet

The S&P500 came within a hair’s breadth of the 62% Fibonacci retrace of the recent 8% price correction and rebound, only to face early congestion and subsequently give up two days of gains on the Consumer Confidence and Jobless reports for a wide bar down nearly $2.00. Price has found some support at that 5-DMA [...]

Here’s the position of the VIX as of 7:20 AM pst today on the daily bar chart. The VIX has made a smooth retracement from the upper LR30 channel band to the mean during the last 5 trading days and now looks poised to revisit those levels again.The lower technical panel contorted by the irrelevant [...]

We are seeing follow-through from last week’s Thursday markup and have now recaptured over half of the recent 8% pullback. Amazingly, the VIX lies just north of 25. It has been a long time since we have seen a reading like that, let alone the markup-pause-markup pattern off of a retrace. Overnight strength was tested [...]

I meant to post this Sunday, but an attempted burglary here at the house caused me to devote all my time to hardening the perimeter and installing some security lighting and motion detectors.This is an update from this morning’s chart as of 7:30 pst. Friday’s chart was a carbon copy, the only difference being the [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) The S&P 500 (SPY) posted a mild -0.2% loss last week, leaving it flat over the last twenty trading days. In contrast, the technology laden NASDAQ100 (QQQQ) was up +0.6%, making it the second strongest performer among the tracked ETFs, as ranked by current prices versus respective simple ten-month moving [...]

The major indices are mixed with the NASDAQ100 (QQQQ) and Russell2000 (IWM) positively outperforming the down S&P500 (SPY) and Dow Jones Industrials (DIA). Also diverging from the mildly negative S&P are its underlying technicals, which, though negative, have been mostly upward sloping since the open. For now I’m willing to call it consolidation after yesterday’s [...]

OK, this is the last post on this setup. I’m teaching a trading class in the afternoons this week, and this setup has been a focus of our attention, so I thought I’ll get double duty from the post and link it to the blog.Right out of the gate the Qs drop and look like [...]

Today’s early drop was the inverse of Wednesday’s pop. The subsequent 9:38-9:48 magic circle, however played out pretty much the same.The difference, of course, was the sudden bullish reversal off of the S1 pivot back up to the PP pivot by 9:45, causing me to miss a nice little potential gain.The Qs parabolics actually fired [...]

Right out the gates, equities quickly recovered on improved GDP readings after the small initial jobless claims gap lower. We have not looked back since for a strong markup right up to R2 on the SPY and QQQQ, which is proving stronger resistance for now. Meanwhile, Cumulative Tick, Advancers – Decliners and Up Volume remain [...]

The Advance – Decline line is very, very strong today with Up Volume far outpacing Down. Tick is net strong on a cumulative basis, even though it has trailed down a bit as the S&P500 has pulled back to the VWAP ahead of the FOMC Statement, which will be found here. Stop back later for [...]

This morning’s early pop sure looked like a possible fade candidate as the 9:38-9:48 magic circle played out. What was different about today, and what should have waved you off a fade was the sudden upsurge at 9:49 accompanied by a parabolic BUY on the Qs.At this point the NYAD parabolics were on a solid [...]

After a follow through slide into the first half of the morning, the markets rejected the move as overshoot and began to rise, now well above VWAP. Most indicators are running sideways though we just now put in new tick highs and the A-D line continues to recover to the upside. It seems that alot [...]

At midday the markets are, uh, DOWN.A look at my litle 4 ETF basket displays the relative performance of the major sector and shows the Qs are holding up the best, while XLE, which enjoyed a significant pre summer surge, is now settling back to that magic 47 number that’s was a consistent butterfly money [...]

Equities have been hit hard today with nary a bounce and the S&P 500 broke through its 50-day moving average like it wasn’t even there, which is now right at the apex of a cross with the 200-day. Here is some reading on that statistic by Michael Stokes at MarketSci. Internals look equally bad, although [...]

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) Family happenings have this post necessarily short gang. The S&P 500 (SPY) fell -2.7% last week for the first negative reading in nearly a month. To cut to the chase, I once again have a mildly negative expectation for the upcoming week. Not withstanding that outlook, it will be most [...]

Just in case Tuesday’s post didn’t make an impression on you, here’s another clear example of when to stand back from an otherwise enticing trade.Once again, we’re using the NYAD as the dominant signal and the line in the sand for entry signals. While some traders favor using the TICK and/or TICK volume, I tend [...]

The morning expiry trade provided some serious directional volatility both ways, making for very clean and profitable day-trading on the S&P500 contracts. Just now, the SPY slide has been arrested by the flattish five-day moving average on volume, with Cumulative Tick and the Advance – Decline lines attempting to repair damage. Interestingly, Up Volume continues [...]