ETF Prophet

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) It was another choppy but positive week for equities with the S&P500 (SPY) gaining an impressive +3.9% during the holiday-shortened week. This move put the index well above its simple 10-month moving average for the first time in over a year (although it remains just slightly below its 200-day). In [...]

Even after the run up from March the current chart patterns still look bullish.Virtually all the technicals remain in a upslope with only minimal evidence of overbought conditions.A continued advance towards the LR30 channel means could easily tack another 10% to current levels. IMHO not a time to get aggressively short and I’m also inclined [...]

Looking across the major sectors, it seems Energy (XLE +1.5%), Basic Materials (XLB), and Consumer Staples (XLP) are largely holding up this market, and that can’t be good for too long — even though this feels a bit like consolidation just now. However, most internals are going sideways along with price as the S&P500 hugs [...]

Here’s an example from Thursday’s open of a gap fade trade setup that I posted a year ago. You never know when these setups are going to occur and with the recent bullish trend for the past few months, these have for the most part, not had a great performance record.Nevertheless, on the heels of [...]

Intermarket cross-talk among bonds, equities and commodities have led to extremely fast and wide-ranging moves during the last several days. Most of the majors are slightly in the red, although the S&P is still hanging on to break even. My larger concern is that internals are weakening. Also, beyond Energy (XLE), leadership is lacking with [...]

Here’s another example of the butterfly setup I posted on Tuesday. In this case we’re looking at INTC and a July expiration.The reason I chose INTC for the study is reflected in the stock’s conformance to the LR30 channel, which has shown a slight upslope bias over the past 2 months, but which is now [...]

Here is a TradeStation Paintbar study to help distinguish which hourly bar total volume ($TVOL) is in. First hour heavy volume days are said to be more likely to trend. Cheers, Jeff //Each Hourly Bar Assigned a Different Color by Market Rewind Variable: BarCount(0), CustomColor(0); If Date Date[1] Then BarCount = 1 Else BarCount = [...]

Price has held remarkably level on the housing data, choosing to focus on the increase in sales rather than inventory for sale. VWAP has a mildly positive slope and internals have been mostly cooperative. However, at the mid-day, I note an apparent bottoming to the VIX just under 30 and a possible turn in Cumulative [...]

Here’s an update of the MACD signal line system originally posted back on March 4th. The study uses my typical 16 month floating lookback period to gauge consistency of the equity curve.Back in March the optimized MACD settings were 4,16,5. The current optimized settings are 3,14,3, a reversion to the MACD settings of approximately 2.5 [...]

Equities exploded higher on the strong Consumer Confidence report, putting us into a nice trend day with Advance – Decliners, Up Volume and Cumulative Tick all running to the upside set against a lower VIX. As tempting as it may be to fade such a wide bar, professional traders will require evidence rather than risk [...]

Last December I posted a number studies using a butterfly spread to generate a low risk income stream. The XLU example was one of the cleanest, but the original XLE butterfly case study generated a great R/R for several months. The underlying strategy is that you risk a limited fixed amount in order to target [...]

I have a few more goodies that I filtered out in recent scans. Since I have discovered FINVIZ doesn’t work on my Chrome browser for some reason, I haven’t used FINVIZ in too long. While looking for good swing trading stocks I found one stock that fits the bill: RCI So I had to come [...]

Very similar, almost like a SSO is to SPY.

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary) Last week’s diminutive S&P500 (SPY) returns, up +0.3%, belied the significant recovery attempt and failure of the majors, putting in lower May highs across the board. The real gainers were International (EFA +5.2%) and Emerging Market (EEM +5.6%) stocks, boosted by higher Commodities (DBC +5.0%) and a weakend US Dollar [...]

There is a gentle up-slope on today’s Volume Weighted Average Price and there have been good trend and fade opportunities on both sides with yesterday’s low trough and today’s pre-session highs setting the range. While the bias has been mildly higher, at the mid-day we find ourselves back at that VWAP with a deteriorating Cumulative [...]

Here are a few more examples of the Goodbar setup trades…one long, one short and one that sure looked like a short but didn’t work out.This time around I’m looking at 5 minute bars and focusing on a stock…CLF, which has been a trading favorite for several in the REWIND chat room.Keep in mind that [...]

OK I had a pretty good run this month after realizing I should stop shorting into the prolonged short squeezery rally. Pretty much all about 1 trick ponies strategy of stocks that trade above upper Boillinger Band AND upper Keltner Channel. Worked pretty well, finally came out the sideways action of loss/recovery/loss/recovery in my account. [...]